May

Silver badly lagged gold on Friday, but I've given it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless with a bullish rABC pattern that can be used to trade the May contract. Minimum upside is to p=24.28, with a D target at 26.32. The pattern is gnarly enough to be used for positioning a 'mechanical' bid on any one-level pullback. As always, a decisive thrust past p would imply the target is likely to be reached. ______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 6:30 p.m.): Silver continues to lag gold, but not badly enough to worry about. Today's strong start exceeded the D target of a minor pattern but still fell short of p=24.76 of this pattern and an 'external peak at 24.56 from January 2. Look for the correction to come down to 23.16 and reverse if it exceeds 23.80.

May Silver on Friday precisely fulfilled a Hidden Pivot target at 26.20 that was six months in coming. The actual high was 26.23, but don't expect much more than that for the time being, since buyers could use a rest. Two or three weeks could enable them to recover, but in the meantime we'll trade this contract with a bearish bias. We should also pay close attention to corrective ABC patterns, since an overshoot of their d targets would signal more downside while sharpening our assessment of trend strength.

Buyers easily handled 'hidden' resistance last week at p2=24.57, implying the futures remain on track for a run-up to at least 26.20. [Changed to correct a rickism that gave the target initially as 26.01.] This target is slightly lower than the one previously given, since it's derived from a one-off 'A' different from the original. That was a 'Pontiac/Oldsmobile' middle-of-the-roader that I've usually advised shunning, since it often misses final highs and lows. The rally has been too steep to enable 'mechanical' entries, but a drop to the red line would signal one nonetheless, stop 21.85. _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 6:09 p.m.): Buyers pushed the May futures to within 0.3% of the 26.20 target, effectively fulfilling it. A pullback is likely but not certain. The next important resistance is an external peak at 27.22 from March 8, 2022, and its breach would refresh the bullish energy of the long-term charts.

We've been using a Hidden Pivot at 23.89 as a rally target, but buyers handled the 23.21 midpoint resistance of a larger pattern with such brio on Friday that I've switched to that pattern, with a 26.47 target that significantly raises the ceiling for the near-to-intermediate-term. Odds of a run-up to that number would shorten if the futures close above 23.34 for a second consecutive day.  The pattern should work well for 'mechanical' buying on the way up if you want to augment a long position. However, because theoretical entry risk would be a little more than $8,000 per contract , the trade should not be attempted without a 'camouflage' trigger capable of reducing that by at least 90%.

Because it came precisely off a 64.25 Hidden Pivot target that was nearly nine months in coming, crude's so-far 10% rebound should continue to run for several weeks or longer. However, it would take a print topping the 81.07 'external' peak recorded on March 7 to generate an impulse leg capable of ending a bear market that saw crude's price fall by a third since apexed last August at 101.66. If the recent low were to be exceeded, the futures would likely be headed down to approximately 56, a target culled from a continuous-contract daily chart with ABC coordinates on the same dates as the one shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Crude has taken a lunatic leap to just above 81.07 today on news that Saudi Arabia plans to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day. Credit our President, whose brain unfortunately is not sufficiently rotted to prevent him from driving an erstwhile ally into the arms of China, Russia and Iran. Because I never trust big countertrend moves when they've been triggered by headline news, I will raise the bar to 83.05 to signal a possible end to the bear market begun from 101.66 last June.  That's a penny above an important peak recorded on January 23. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 6:23 p.m.): The May contract poked its greasy little snout above my 83.05 benchmark and even managed to close above it. I'll reflexively raise the bar to 87.40 before I start trusting this heavily engineered rally. That's a tick above a daunting 'external' peak recorded on November 7. I've never regarded cartel cutbacks in production as remotely sufficient to offset falling demand caused by global recession. The world desperately needs higher energy prices to support vast borrowings hocked against energy resources, and

I've brought point 'A' down to a 'marquee' low in order to give the rally a little more room. Silver's week-long hesitation to push past p=21.92 made it less than a lock-up to reach D=23.89, but Friday's blast free of gravity was sufficiently compelling to imply the target will be reached. As always, an overshoot of so clear a Hidden Pivot would imply more uptrend. Next would come a test of massive supply in the 23.50-25.00 range deposited back in December/January. _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 8:55 a.m.): With a so-far high today of 23.71, the futures are closing on the 23.89 target that would max out the bullish reverse pattern shown in the thumbnail chart. They were short-able this morning as scalp at 23.69, however -- the 'D' target associated with the one-off low at 21.19 on 11/8. IF SI closes above the higher target, it would activate D=26.48, associated with A=18.40 on 10/14.

Just a little more selling would have brought May Crude down to a back-up-the-truck low at 64.25 where we would all have become bulls. Alas, the futures ran out the clock last week pussyfooting with lows just above this Hidden Pivot support, leaving a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the world's most valuable commodity as the new week begins. There is obviously a lot of bottom-fishing going on, so we should expect some more stop-outs beneath prior lows before crude gets traction. Another possibility, less likely, would be a gap-up opening on Sunday that leaves bulls choking on dust. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 9:14 p.m.): The futures rallied nearly $4 from a 64.36 low that missed my target by 11 cents. This happened at 5:00 a.m., however, an inconvenient time for U.S.-based traders. Only one subscriber mentioned it, so I have not established a tracking position. Here's the chart.

It may be premature to switch to a bullish chart in Silver, especially considering that price action n gold has been so wishy-washy. However, the May contract triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on Friday when it vaulted to the green line (see inset) and then exceeded it by 1.5 cents. We can therefore project more upside to p=21.79, but we should be prepared nonetheless for a relapse below 'C' that would negate the bullish target. If the futures achieve p=21.79, straightaway, a relapse to x=20.86 would set up a very enticing 'mechanical' buy that we could initiate using a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. ______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:35 p.m. EDT): The slight overshoot of p (adjusted to 21.82) is bullish and shortens the odds of a continuation to D=23.69 (also adjusted).  A swoon to x=20.88 would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 19.94.

Silver's modest rally last week failed to trip a theoretical buy signal when it narrowly missed the green line (see inset).  The impulse leg that cued up the pattern is legitimate and even compelling, however, and that's why the resulting Hidden Pivot levels are likely to be useful for trading and analytical purposes once the futures have popped above x. The bull cycle is theoretically capped at D=24.45, but that doesn't negate the possibility that bulls will shred the target and make a run for structural resistance around $27. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 5:19 p.m.): Do shakeouts really have to be as brutal as today's kamikaze dive?  It put in play a hitherto unthinkable downside target at 18.51 that can serve as a worst-case objective for the next 6-8 days. The way sellers pulped the red line (p=20.32) implies that the target, as painful as it sounds, is hardly a longshot bet. More immediately, the selloff should have little trouble reaching p2=19.42, a secondary Hidden Pivot that can serve as a minimum downside objective but also as a place to attempt cautious bottom-fishing.