Silver

The chart shows the same hopeful, best-case scenario for Silver as the one presented in the Gold tout. The May contract tripped a theoretical buy signal on Friday when it touched the green line, and now it need only push above p=77.99 to tip the odds strongly back in bulls' favor. As is the case in gold, however, and as I have stated, this is not the most likely outcome, and the alternative would be further slippage to at least 56.32. That is the secondary Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting as low as 42.67 (60m, A=119.20 on Feb 29). ______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 11:03 a.m.): Further slippage overnight to 61.210 has altered the picture. The rally since has tripped a theoretical buy signal at 67.434 that will likely achieve 73.658, s midpoint resistance that could stop bulls in their tracks. However, if they blow past it, you can use 86.105 as a rally target. Also, a pullback to 67.434 from anywhere in the range 76.20-77.60 would trigger a 'mechanical buy at 67.43, stop 61.205. _______ UPDATE March 24, 10:51 p.m.): A gusher of promising news from the President tonight has pushed the futures past a minor  'd' target at 73.535 (60m, a=79.20 on 3/3), putting a bigger pattern in play with a new rally target at 85.90. A pullback first to 67.383 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 67.383, stop 61.210. Please note that the trade would carry nearly $31,000 of entry risk per contract, so it is therefore recommended only to those of you who are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers capable of reducing the risk by as much as 95%. They are covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course I've made available free to most subscribers. 

I don't like this bullish pattern as much as the one I've featured in the Gold tout, but it is certainly good enough for government work. It suggests that May Silver will become a fetching 'mechanical' buy when it touches the green line (x=77.043). Keep in mind that x is not a support, a target or a Hidden Pivot, just a place where we organize certain types of trades. The implication is that the futures could keep falling all the way down to c=63.667 before they turn around. At that point, the position would be showing a loss of slightly less tha $67,000 per contract. Obviously, the trade is only for those who can handles the risk and who know how to set up small-pattern triggers to get aboard.  Because of the look of the pattern, the trade rates a '7.8', which, although very appealing, is significantly lower than my rating for the gold trade.

Although I expect May Silver to rally to 117.485 (daily, a=69.850 on dec 31, 2025) eventually, it looks like it will need to correct down to 69.245 first. That's the 'd' target of the rABC pattern shown, and the forecast of a further retracement is based on sellers' decisive penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p=83.273) on the way down early last week. If the futures rally first to the green line (x=90.286), that would trigger a 'mechanical' short with a 97.305 stop-loss (just above the point 'c' high).  That' implies about $35,000 of initial risk per contract, so the trade is recommended only for subscribers who can cut it down to no more than $750 theoretical with a 'camouflage' trigger.

It took buyers all of three days to gnaw through heavy resistance at the 90.165 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. Adding to the challenge was the 92.015 peak recorded on Feb 4.  It had served as a stop-loss for a 'mechanical' short from 10 points lower that I had suggested paper-trading to gauge the strength of the uptrend. Although Friday's rally did not impale p, which we would have taken as a sign that more upside to d=116.43 was in-the-bag, bulls made such short work of it that there is little doubt the target will be reached. For now, however, let's use p2=103.298 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. It should show enough stopping power to get short, if only briefly, but I am recommending the trade only to subscribers who know how to manage the risk by using a small-interval trigger (aka 'camouflage'). _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 3:11 p.m.): Check the chat room for timely posts related to Silver -- and please note that they all reference the MAY contract. Basis the May, d=117.485, p2=104.279 and p=91.073

I posted a moderately bearish note in Silver in the chat room Friday, but by day's end the little monster was threatening to trash my logic.  The March contract was on 'mechanical' short signals in two different time frames, one big, the other small, and things could have gone either way.  In fact, things went bonkers, stopping just shy of the 86.13 print needed to negate the lesser 'sell' signal.  Above it sits 91.285, which some may recall as the location of a stop-loss for the bigger-picture 'mechanical' short.  We should wait until these numbers are actually exceeded before we open a can of whoop-ass, but bullion looked primed to blow higher when trading resumes on Sunday.

The chart shows two bearish patterns at work in Silver,.The larger is a conventioanl ABC with a D target at 44.50, a 42% fall from here. I doubt it will be reached, however, because of bears' failure to overwhelm the midpoint support at 68.13. The implication is that a decline to 56.32, if it gets that far, would offer an excellent buying opportunity. The smaller pattern says bears won't even get that far -- that the correction begun from the Jan 29 high at  121.78 will end at d=69.34. Together with the midpoint support at 68.13, the two Hidden Pivots will present a formidable challenge to bears.  Be ready to bid aggressively there if the chance arises.

As I've noted in the latest Gold tout (see above), Silver's chart looks significantly weaker in comparison. The correction from January's record 121.23 has breached the midpoint support (p=68.390) by a significant amount, setting up what can only be viewed as a 'textbook' mechanical' short on any rally that touches the green line (x=80.203).  That implies the futures could fall as far as D=44.765 after peaking at x or somewhat higher.  I prefer to analyze each chart on its own, rather than complicate the picture by tying it to another, even if they are close cousins. We'll have to see what the new week brings, but I've mentioned in the Gold tout that bulls would seem to hold the edge here. ________ UPDATE (Feb 9, 11:12 a.m.): See Monday night's chat room discussion for further guidance.

The chart is similar to the one I've drawn in Gold, with a 0.625 retracement serving as a target for Silver's breathtaking correction. It came off a record high on Thursday that missed a 122.215 Hidden Pivot target I'd drum-rolled by a millimeter.  Friday's bounce left the futures sitting nearly $3 above the 50% line, but if the correction is going to match Gold's, a retracement to 64.18 is needed.  Be prepared to bottom-fish there with a 'camo' trigger, since 64.18 is not going to be on the radar of most traders, derived as it is from a low recorded last April that is idiosyncratic, although not obscure. ______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 7:55 a.m.):  I've switched the view, since trying to synch the charts of gold and silver grew confusing. This picture affords 'safe passage' to at least d=91.285, a Hidden Pivot that lies  $6.80 above. If it shows little resistance, I will adjust by lowering point 'a' to produce a higher target.  In the meantime, a pullback to the green line (x=76.221) can be bought 'mechanically' with a 71.190 stop-loss.  That implies more than $5000 of entry risk per contract, so the trade is recommended only to subscribers able to craft a 'camouflage' trigger. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 10:59 p.m.): The suggested trade racked up a monster profit of $75,320 per contract for anyone who boarded at 76.221 and exited two days later at my target, 91.285.  What happened next should not have surprised subscribers: the futures wafted slightly (47 cents) higher, then fell moments later into a hellish dive that took them all the way back down to, so far, 73.415, a tad below the trade-entry price. 

The ballistic, $30 climb since December appears to have topped within spitting distance of my 103.215 target. That could be it, but I'm not counting on it, especially since I have higher targets outstanding in gold. The chart shows an alternative possibility at 122.305 that leaves room for a further rally of 18% above Friday's high.  The pattern itself is unusual, but I am comfortable using it to project yet another, potentially important, high because I've seen this one work before in a roughly matching time frame.  Be prepared for a stall or worse at 109.043, the secondary Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 5:30 p.m.):  Everyone's been telling themselves they'd buy this little monster on weakness. Well, here it is.  The 98.575 target shown in this chart is almost certain to be achieved, but it is tied to a pattern that every clown in the trading world sees and is planning to use.  If you plan to join them, make sure its with a 'camo' trigger that they wouldn't know from a barstool. Alternatively, shorting x=107.035 'mechanically', stop 109.860, will enjoy better odds.  I'll publish more correction targets if and when they become available. For now, though, there are only 'conventional' patterns to use for that purpose.  Because I'd rather not bump heads with a thousand clowns, you'll have to be patient until more rABCs develop, including the obscure ones I prefer.  _______  UPDATE (Jan 27, 8:29 a.m.): Silver picked up strength overnight and never looked back, never mind fulfill the 98.575 correction target identified above. The major Hidden Pivot at 122.305 will likely be achieved and still deserves caution, but I am not going to lay odds that it will cap the bull market.