Silver has pulled out of a steep dive that retraced more than 80% of the rally begun in mid-November from 22.26. We are likely to know soon whether the reversal is capable of achieving the 26.865 target shown, since a crucial resistance lies just above in the form of a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 24.82, As always, an easy penetration of this obstacle, or better yet two consecutively weekly closes above it, would suggest bulls are back in charge. This seems very likely because the impulse leg that drove the futures to their most recent high at 26.34 surpassed two 'external' peaks and one 'internal' without taking a breather.
As Silver plummeted on Friday, few subscribers would have been focused on the green line, where the March contract will become an all-but-obligatory 'mechanical' buy. Such trades are not supposed to leave one feeling comfortable, and this one would surely qualify as menacing. Note, however, that the implication is not that the futures will necessarily achieve D=27.16 after touching x=22.67, only that they are more like to bounce to p=24.16 than to fall first below C=21.17. We can manage the risk of this opportunity with a smidgen of 'camouflage if it materializes', so please nudge me in the chat room if you're actively engaged. ______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 11:11 p.m.): No one nudged me, but DaBoyz goosed the March contract $1.34 off a 22.78 low that missed touching my green-line 'launching pad' by 12 cents. Our attention is now on this very tradable pattern, with a 25.47 D target. The slight overshoot of p=24.13 implies that D is no worse than an even bet to be reached.
March Silver has moved into a thicket of prior peaks, but there should be little doubt it will surpass them and head unhesitatingly toward the 27.16 target shown. The December contract we'd been tracking has stalled at p2, but the equivalent obstacle here has been exceeded on a closing basis, attesting to the power of the move. The big pattern has yielded up just one 'mechanical' buy so far, but the rally has steepened since, suggesting that a swoon to the red line, never mind the green one, to set up a 'mechanical' buy is unlikely. In practice, this means we'll need to find a reverse pattern on a chart of small degree to get long enroute to 27.16.
Silver's chart, although clearly bullish, has all the problems of gold's and then some. The pattern that produced the 24.955 target has a dubious impulse leg that failed to surpass any 'external' peaks. Also, there is an authoritative trendline just above last week's highs that is not likely to be a pushover. And finally, the futures spent the last two days of the week head-butting a secondary pivot at 24.20 that refused to give way. My gut feeling is that the target will be achieved anyway, but I'll wait for the futures to push above some daunting 'external' peaks recorded in July and August before we break out the bubbly. _______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Silver's chart handily outperformed gold's last week, shortening the odds of a further push to the 24.955 target given above. What happens after that will be crucial to the intermediate-term picture, since an 'external' peak at 25.425 recorded on August 30 will beckon a test of buyers' enthusiasm. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:30 p.m.): Helped by last week's wicked upthrust, the December contract today hit and then exceeded the 222222224.93 target shown. It is slightly lower than the one given here previously, but the pattern to which it is tied is sufficiently compelling for us to infer the small overshoot of the target on the close portends even higher prices this week. Look for a push above August 25.035 peak, but with some potential rally-stopping 'voodoo' resistance prices between here and 25.68.
More slippage to at least D=22.04 looks unavoidable, given the way sellers obliterated the midpoint support (p) early Friday morning. This Hidden Pivot lies close enough to a cluster of obvious lows recorded in mid-October near 21. They look incapable of arresting silver's fall for long, implying a further fall to October lows near 21 in search of traction. There's a Hidden Pivot support at 21.69 you can use for purposes of precise bottom-fishing (daily, A-23.24 on 10/20). _______ UPDATE Nov 14, 8:07 p.m.): The futures trampolined higher after briefly dipping below the 22.04 Hidden Pivot noted above. Now, if they can shove past p=23.44 of this pattern, they should be presumed bound for D=24.95.
Recent price action in silver does not justify a bold prediction at the moment. However, my patiently bullish outlook for gold implies it will drag silver higher when the time comes. The most positive thing that can be said of the latter is that the spike high that occurred on October 20 exceeded an external peak at 23.81 that would likely have trapped many enthusiastic buyers badly. That means the moderate selloff since has been corrective and should be viewed as a buying opportunity. As such, our focus will be on doing so on weakness that meets our criteria for bottom-fishing. Stay tuned.
The spike that capped the recent rally narrowly failed to surpass an 'external' peak at 24.05 recorded a month earlier. It was not all we might have hoped for. But there was more resistance than appeared, including a second, very sharp peak that caught bulls off guard before crushing them in a two-day cascade. Now, looking on the bright side, with gold promising to drag silver higher, we should expect this pullback to give way to an exuberant thrust that clears not just the prior peaks, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 24.02. Once the December contract is above them, we'll be able to trade 'em up as bulls cruise to at least p2=25.60.
Silver's rally last week wasn't quite as impressive as gold's, but it did manage to somewhat exceed the 23.70 target of the middling 'reverse pattern' we'd been using to stay on the right side of the trend. The next significant target is 27.18, a Hidden Pivot derived from a conventional pattern on the daily chart where A=20.61 on March 8. However, because we can assume silver will not ultimately lag far behind gold, I'll air a 28.15 target that is shown in the inset chart. Critical resistance, and possible confirmation of the pattern, will come at p=24.83, my minimum upside target.
Friday's pop through the red line left no doubt that the rally will reach the 23.695 target of the middling reverse pattern shown. We can trade confidently with a bullish bias until then, but it is what happens thereafter that matters. A decisive move through the Hidden Pivot or a two-day close above it would portend a likely follow-through that tests the 26.940 peak recorded in May. In any event, the next 80 cents of the ascent looks so certain that we might expect half of it to occur when the futures resume trading Sunday evening. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:03 p.m.): Don't believe bullion's sluggishness today; it is being stage-managed by big players who are even more eager than you or I to buy the stuff before it takes off.
Inspired by gold's ballistic move on Friday, I've used an ambitious reverse pattern to project a 42.09 rally target. It is clear and compelling, implying it will work not just for getting trend and targets precisely right, but enabling some profitable trades along the way. The red line (p=36.28) should produce a stall, possibly tradeable, since it closely coincides with a 'voodoo' resistance. Still less uncertain is that GDXJ will achieve the midline, a 7% move from here.
