Friday, January 11, 2008

Countrywide Deal A Useful Hoax

– Posted in: Current Touts

In the chart below, it's plain to see that DaBoyz lacked the guts yesterday to promote an all-out short squeeze. The S&Ps may have rallied 40 points from their intraday lows, but look at how the top of the rally failed to take out any meaningful highs to the left of it. In Hidden Pivot terms, there is no bullish impulse leg here to get excited about, only little stuff that would be useful merely for scalping. (Click on chart to enlarge) And yet, there was ample evidence that those who earn their living manipulating stocks ended the day with every intention of building on yesterday's momentum, which could only have come about as a result of delusional thinking and short-covering. To heighten the effect, there was a terrific dog-and-pony show that had BofA buying Countrywide. This deal is obviously being pushed hard behind-the-scenes by the Fed, and it makes sense, since rumors that the latter firm is seriously on the ropes needed to be squelched as quickly as possible. What better way to accomplish this than to promote as Countrywide's suitor the bank that has been mentioned least in connection with 'the subprime mess'? We think BofA eventually will go down in flames like all the other financial biggies, but we'd have to concede that it is likely to outlive Citi and a few others that might just as easily have been volunteered by the Fed to drink deeply from Countrywide's poisonous well. We'd surmised as much from promotional mailings received over the years from the money centers. BofA has always seemed less aggressive than most -- surely less aggressive than Citi -- in promoting revolving loans in particular. Perhaps that's why BofA shares have fallen 'only' 30% from their highs while Citigroup's have shed fully half of their value. (Click