Rick Ackerman

Calling All Newbies

– Posted in: Tutorials

You’re in for a treat if you recently signed up for the mini-course on ‘mechanical’ trading. This recorded lesson covers the basics while linking them to more advanced concepts so that they are easy to understand. We executed several profitable trades in real time, drastically limiting risk by using the lesser charts (in one case, two-tick price bars). Finally, you’ll see how even novices can practice daily with real money while limiting losses to practically nothing.

The Mechanical Workhorse

– Posted in: Tutorials

  There are some hidden gems here. As usual, we looked for trades that could be forced, and we found them in plentiful supply. Most of the time we were a step or two behind the trigger but still close enough to see the choices we made justified in real time. The 15-minute chart continues to be the best vehicle for day-trading. We used mostly ‘mechanical’ set-ups, sometimes in conjunction with ‘reverse’ patterns, to fashion triggers and stops.

‘Mechanicals’ All Day Long

– Posted in: Tutorials

  We went hunting for day trades using ‘mechanical’ set-ups during this hour together. Even though stocks have been under considerable selling pressure lately, the opportunities we found were both bull trades that used ‘mechanical’ triggers to get aboard. This was essential in AMZN, a $2800 stock that requires an entry method guaranteeing no slippage. We traded just a few shares, but that’s all you need to make money with a stock that moves as much as this one. The other play was in AAPL, where the 5-minute chart offered a perfect pattern so subtle that we had little competition exploiting it. Applying ‘mechanical’ set-ups on charts of lesser degree yields so many opportunities that it becomes possible to find potential winners at any time of the day one might wish to trade.

Tussling with Nasty

– Posted in: Tutorials

We spent most of the session trying to force trades in symbols that looked busy, but we were stymied by a mid-morning lull that followed gap-up openings in many vehicles. The lesson was not without its rewards, however, since merely chasing trades requires all of our logic circuits to be firing properly. Check out the gambit in March Crude, which involved cutting risk down to size in a futures contract known for its nastiness.  

Avoiding Traffic

– Posted in: Tutorials

There are some big ideas here that are geared toward avoiding traffic at ‘D’ targets, which have become all the rage with ABCD-pattern players. For starters, we have determined to invert our rules when the patterns are too obvious. This implies, for one, that we will look to get short the first time a C-D rally-leg touches the green line. And we need to be prepared for trends to narrowly miss hitting their targets when we are attempting to trade against the trend. Toward the end, there is material concerning the midpoint pivot, which we used to produce a quick, high-confidence winner in the E-Mini S&Ps in real time. Check it out!  

Combining Two Tactics

– Posted in: Tutorials

We considered some of the subtler aspects of rABC trading, including the usefulness of attaching ‘mechanical’ levels to the tail end of reverse patterns. This allows one to get long/short via limit bids/offers, as opposed to using the green line for stop entries. As always, we took a magnifying glass to trades that on first glance looked to be easy winners. Some were, but in a few cases the trades failed by a hair to trigger. Nearly the entire session was spent trying to force trades, which are usually in abundant supply when the lesser charts are used for this purpose.

No Uncertainty About Two Key Bellwethers

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks The Morning Line

Happy New Year and welcome back!  Things are beginning to return to normal at Rick's Picks following the disastrous rollout of a new web site earlier this month by a company that had been working on this project for ten months.  I've restored the old Rick's Picks pages and replaced the firm with the highly capable Brian 'Catman' Catalucci, who previously worked as my system administrator. I will keep my comments brief, since there is still some troubleshooting to do this evening to make certain this essay displays properly on the home page and reaches you via email. Mainly, I want to mention two no-brainers that should help you start 2022 with zero confusion about the global economic picture.  The first is the dollar, whose chart is displayed above. You don't have to be a technician to see that this picture is bullish. And even if the greenback is about to work its way lower in order to build a base for the next big rally, there is nothing to suggest that a collapse is even remotely possible, let alone imminent. With that in mind, you can safely tune out all the yo-yos who have been screaming for your attention with predictions of a horrendous inflation. It's not going to happen, and the real challenge for us all, including the charlatans who run the central bank, will be dealing with the catastrophic deflation that is coming with the next bear market. There's Still Time The good news is that the Papa Bear has not yet arrived, and there is still time to shift your money into Treasury paper and bullion assets. Both remain unpopular, which quite often is sufficient reason to invest in a particular asset. You can raise cash for this by dumping bull-market effluvia, including FAANG stocks, private

AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:177.57)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

AAPL still looks like a no-brainer -- not only to achieve the 187.93 bull market target shown, but to provide a tradeable pullback from it that we can short profitably. It is comforting to have such a predictable bellwether. It is better than that, actually, since the stock provides an unobstructed view into the chimp brains of those who get paid to throw huge quantities of Other People's money at a relative handful of ridiculously overvalued stocks. Get AAPL right, as I have always said, and you get stock the market right. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:43 p.m.)' The stock has turned down sharply after getting within 2.6% of the 187.93 target. This is interesting, since the E- Mini Dow came even closer to a 36,890 target I was eager to short before it, too, took a steep dive. The yellow flag is out.

ESH22 – March E-MIni S&P (Last:4703.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures have rolled down from a logical spot, a secondary Hidden Pivot at 4802.25 tied to our bullish lodestar at  4907.25. I've added a smaller 'reverse' pattern with a target at 4663.00 so that we can gauge the strength of correction and exploit it 'mechanically' for trading purposes. It tripped a short at 4756.50 on Friday, but I did not advise taking the trade ahead of the long weekend.  Sliding 'a' up to 4743.25 (12/16) produces a correction target as low as 4576.75, but we'll be better able to judge its validity and usefulness once we've seen how sellers handle the respective midpoint supports at 4731.25 and 4688.25. ______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:19):  Although sellers were spent on the opening bar, DaBoyz failed to take advantage. Even so, it is bullish that the downward spike that began the session couldn't even reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4731.25.   _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:46 p.m.):  Very suspicious. The futures dove today after stopping out a hypothetical short last week from p2=4802.25 by a hair. 'Matt's Curse' is in effect, so we shouldn't be surprised if the downtrend accelerates into week's end. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:57 p.m.): 'Matt's Curse' implies that very sharp reversals become more likely when they begin precisely at the p2 secondary pivot. In this case, the trend did in fact fail just a hair from p2=4803.75 of the bullish ABCD pattern shown, and we should therefore be prepared to see sellers take out the pattern's point 'C' low at 4485.75.  I have drawn in a secondary 'reverse' pattern for trading purposes -- in this case, a potential 'mechanical' short on a rally touching x=4752.50,;or a bottom-fishing attempt at d=4585.25.

USH22 – March T-Bonds (Last:156^05)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I still expect the futures to fall to the 'D' target at 158^14 before the correction ends. That's because the downtrend's first contact with p=160^01 crushed the support.  The implication is that a rally to x=160^26 would trigger a 'mechanical' short with the potential to achieve 'D'. I am not advising the trade, however, unless you know how to initiate it with a 'camouflage' set-up that would reduce the theoretical entry risk per contract to no more than about six ticks. Alternatively, if the bounce stops out C=161^19 of the corrective pattern, that would be bullish for T-bonds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:55 p.m. EST):  We bought into what turned out to be an avalanche, suffering a loss of about $220 per contract before stopping out. The futures went significantly lower thereafter -- no surprise, given the way they'd turned our robust-looking Hidden Pivot support into chop suey. I'm tempted to try again, assuming the futures fall into a void that will produce maximum discomfort at around 156^04. Go for it only if you've attended enough Wednesday tutorial sessions to understand what I'm talking about. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:55 p.m.): The 156^05 'magic number' flagged above caught the low within a single tick. Depending on what kind of set-up you used, the trade has gone on to produce a profit of as much as $1700 on four contracts with the futures currently trading at their high since bottoming at 115^05. If you still hold a fractional position, use D=156^21 as a price objective, implementing a trailing stop if and when it's hit. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:59 p.m.): The bounce went as high as 156^20, a single tick below where I'd suggested implementing a trailing stop. That's close enough to have kept you out of trouble and gotten you out

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