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COMMENTARY for Saturday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
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Rick's Picks for Friday
Because the futures failed to create an impulse leg on the daily chart at the top of the last rally, we should look for the correction to come down to at least 113^05. That would represent a 0.618 retracement of the surge off last Thursday’s lows, but any lower would corroborate our suspicion of latent weakness (i.e., of a bear rally). Alternatively, a thrust exceeding 115^20 would turn the lesser charts bullish and give the futures a shot at, most immediately, 115^25; or as high as 117^09 if that number is exceeded on a closing basis.
After a promising thrust early in yesterday’s session, the futures squandered the opportunity with a move sideways that looked like timid consolidation for a push this morning to 928.50. That’s a Hidden Pivot resistance, and because the rally stalled within a single tick of its 921.75 midpoint sibling, I’ll recommend shorting 928.50 with a stop-loss as tight as 929.25. The trade will remain viable as long as the point ‘C’ low at 915.25 is not exceeded to the downside first.
If the futures fall, the first place where I would recommend aggressive bidding is at 920.70, a Hidden Pivot derived from the somewhat obscure but fetching pattern shown in the chart. Alternatively, it would take a pop to 945.10 – one tick above the look-to-the-left peak shown in the chart — to turn the lesser oontraday charts bullish (although not the hourly).
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Friday
The intraday charts are extremely muddled, suggesting a close match between bulls and bears at the moment. The former would gain the upper hand, however, if they can push TLT to 81.09 today.
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Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition
by Stephanie DeMaria on June 20, 2009 12:01 am GMT
Bear Rally Provides Cover for Spinmeisters
Bailing out the economy and the banking system has been such a brazenly corrupt, mendacious and, ultimately, doomed enterprise that one could almost forget for a moment how very clever the perpetrators are. If we needed proof that these guys are the slickest behind-the-scenes spin doctors around, consider the following two headlines that ran on successive days atop the Wall Street Journal’s front page. “Rate Rise Clouds Recovery” was the grim news that greeted us last Thursday, on day one. The article described how, despite the Federal Reserve’s explicit strategy of buying as much Treasury paper as it takes…
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Like Gold at $990, but LOVE It at $918
Unh hee-yah! Unh hee-yah! Unh hee-yah! Gold futures have been pumping iron for more than a year — and so much the better for all of us if they weren’t up to demolishing the $1000 barrier a couple of weeks ago after getting as close as $992 per ounce. We should regard bullion’s tedious ups and downs over the last eighteen months as quiet preparation for an explosive show of strength. When it finally happens, detonation will be so powerful…
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What’s Next, an Abby Cohen Sell Signal?
Sometimes common sense comes from the most unexpected places. Consider this bearish take on the stock market from – better sit down for this – a Morgan Stanley strategist, Jason Todd: “Equity markets now implicitly need a V-shaped recovery to sustain further gains,” he told a reporter for the Wall Street Journal yesterday. “We do not expect such a recovery and therefore believe the next move is more likely to be down than up.” What’s next? A warning from Abby Cohen, perhaps, to lighten up on stocks? Actually, it looks like traders…
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Calm Before the Storm?
We waited in vain yesterday for the mood change that would have made the day even remotely interesting. Instead, the broad averages spent the day scratching little sores, so to speak, creating in the process a six-hour stretch of airless tedium for bulls and bears alike. Although we found relatively few trading opportunities worth sharing with subscribers, there were reasons to think it will be bears who come out ahead on the next move. Way…
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Behind BRIC’s Smile, a Scheme to Dump Dollar