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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
The Diamonds blew past a 91.96 Hidden Pivot target, stopping us out of some September 90 puts that we held very briefly for a small loss. The rally was just a run-of-the-mill short squeeze triggered by a garden-variety opening-bell gap, but notice in the accompanying chart how it managed to exceed a very subtle look-to-the-left peak made back in November. This spells more trouble, as far as I’m concerned, for any bear who was counting on reality to reassert itself in the stock market sooner or later. On the basis of this subtle signal, my hunch is that relief in the form of sanity in the markets has been postponed indefinitely.
Friday’s pop looked encouraging on the hourly chart, but let’s hold the applause until such time as bulls duplicate this feat on the daily chart. That would take a further thrust past the 989.90 peak recorded June 10 on the way down. For maximum bullish effect, the rally would need to occur without a pause of more than a day once the first peak at 962.70 has been surpassed.
Friday’s carnage breached June’s key low, returning a 76.59 downside target to the spotlight. That is now my minimum downside objective, subject to bear-rally feints and forays to 79.03, the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the target. More immediately, a lesser pattern projects to 77.68, the first place were we might expect a tradable bounce. Alternatively, it would take a pop this week exceeding 79.78 to turn the hourly chart bullish again.
A Hidden Pivot at 1534.30 flagged here earlier is pulling the futures lower, along with a secondary target (shown) at 1532.70. Camouflage is called for if bottom-fishing, so start looking for the turn on the 5-minute (or less) chart from 1535.80 on down. If these supports give way easily and, heaven forbid, the futures close below them, the next stop would likely be 1500.00, the ‘D’ target of the large pattern shown. Night owls could also use a 1520.30 target to bottom-fish — without camouflage. A four-tick stop-loss should suffice. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.
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There are numerous bearish patterns we can use to project a potentially important low, but the one that I like most has three single-bar coordinates, all sharply etched. They produce a 358.38 ‘D’ target, and although I cannot guarantee that will be where the carnage ends, it would most surely be worth bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. My best-case scenario implies that the low was made yesterday at 390.63, just 0.59 points from the ‘D’ target shown in lavender. To take the offensive, bulls would need to push this vehicle to 422.47 by Thursday.
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INTRADAY TRADING NOTES for Monday
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SIDE BETS for Monday
GOOG’s last push fell $5 shy of a $457 Hidden Pivot target it should have reached. The target lies at exactly 457.92, and the failure would have more serious implications if the stock falls below 423.50 before it’s hit.
A rally today surpassing 13.30, or a two-day close above 13.22, would lend weight to the tentative bullishness of last week’s rally. Thereafter, we could look for a follow-through to at least 14.12, or perhaps 14.36 if any higher. It would take a print at 14.85, however, to create a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart.
The futures looked bound for a minimum 13.960 when the clock ran out on them Friday. A move to that Hidden Pivot resistance would be encouraging, but they’ll need to surpass a peak at 14.470 on the daily chart to clinch the bullish case for the intermediate term.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held this June 6th - 7th. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Bank Pay Outrageous, But Is That Recovery?
by Rick Ackerman on August 3, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 14 comments
Assuming Americans still have the capacity for outrage, they should be rioting in the streets following last week’s reports that nine big banks paid out $33 billion in bonuses in 2008. The Wall Street Journal put this travesty in perspective, noting that the bonuses were a third larger than California’s budget deficit. “Six of the nine banks paid out more in bonuses than they received in profit,” the Journal reported, and “one in every 270 employees at the banks – [a total of 5,000 employees] –received more than $1 million.” » Read the full article