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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
Two days later, and already I’ve forgotten just what was supposed to have caused stocks to fall so hard on Friday. In any event, the selloff brought a 1035.75 midpoint support into play as a logical minimum downside objective. The target is shown in the accompanying chart, and it looks compelling enough to suggest we should hold a bearish bias until it is reached. A short or a long derived from the target should be tied to a camouflage entry, since Sunday night’s flabby action looked “difficult” to short, and because midpoint supports off the daily chart will rarely be precisely reliable for bottom-fishing.
Our minimum downside objective for the near term is still 1179.40, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a pattern that projects as low as 1140.10. There is a second bearish pattern that we are watching as well with an 1186.90 midpoint (already breached, albeit only slightly) and an 1155.00 ‘D’ target. Alternatively, a print at 1226.30 is needed today or tomorrow to suggest that bulls are once again taking charge.
Friday’s low at 82.08 fell within 0.08 points of minor Hidden Pivot support that so far appears to be doing its job. The bounce will have to clear 83.51 to look like the beginning of a real turnaround, however, and my hunch is that it will fail. I don’t usually cite “fundamentals,” but in this case European intimations of “austerity” should suffice to put a lid on the dollar, even if it’s “too-big-to-fail” appeal will likely remain as a rationale for more than a mere handful of institutional lemmings.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Summer Heat Brings Tabloid News to a Boil
by Rick Ackerman on July 19, 2010 1:37 am GMT · 8 comments
It’s high summer here in Colorado, with the mercury at 93 – possibly the coolest day we’ve logged all week. Our car thermometer registered 108 yesterday, but surely this was a mistake? You don’t hear many complaints, though, probably because the humidity is so low hereabouts. In the winter, with the heat cranked up on a cold day, we’ve seen the humidity fall below 10 percent inside the house – practically as dry as the Gobi Desert. On the comfort index, a 93-degree summer day in Colorado feels like maybe 77 degrees in Baltimore. When we moved here from San Francisco in 1999, many of the things we brought with us that were made of laminated wood dried out and cracked after a few years: cutting boards, a coffee table, dining room chairs. Anyone planning on moving to this region of the country with a Bösendorfer should consider selling it and buying » Read the full article