A previously identified rally target at 107.61 remains the best short-term play I can foresee at the moment. That implies more than a point of upside potential to consider -- and possibly to leverage -- before we attempt to get short. Traders should be ready for the opportunity, which would come on the hourly chart this morning with a pop to between the two peaks of the last two days -- respectively at 106.88 and 107.09 -- followed by a b-c pullback and a new thrust. If this all occurs in the first 60 to 90 seconds of the session, the opportunity would become all the more attractive, but you'll need to be ready for it. (Note: We remain short the August 102/98 put three times in a 1:2 ratio @ 0.76 per, but we've written off this backspread for a $228 loss.)
Monday, August 9, 2010
ESU10 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1118.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksI benchmarked a couple of Hidden Pivot resistance points earlier, but they should be put out of mind for now, since the futures spent all of last week failing to knock off a manifestly more important resistance peak at 1129.50 recorded on June 20. Late Sunday night they created a bullish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart, with an implied 'C' entry at 1118.25.and an 1116.25 stop-loss. This seems too risky to jump on, although there was potential for lesser patterns to develop on the same chart with commensurately lower risk of as little as three ticks. (In the accompanying chart, I've illustrated one way this could play out.)
SIU10 – September Silver (Last:18.465)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksRecent rallies have been encouraging -- though not stellar, since buyers still seem to be having trouble vaulting "external" peaks with each new intraday thrust. The most important such challenge on the hourly chart lies at 18.820, and so we'll make that the number to beat today, or at latest tomorrow. If the effort fails, it's a long way to the trendline we've been using on the hourly chart to project swing lows. It comes in around 17.370 today.
GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1206.70)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIf the rally cycle begun in late July is destined for the record books, the futures should not have to consolidate for more than a day before leaping a key peak at 1222.10 recorded on July 14. If that happens today there would be little doubt that bulls are intent on a test this summer of all-time highs near 1270.00. A two-day effort would somewhat dim prospects of this although it wouldn't kill them.
Wheat in solo drama
– Posted in: Rick's PicksWheat futures are collapsing -- exactly as our colleague Ross Clark at Institutional Advisors had predicted they would in a timely dispatch sent out Friday -- but not much else is moving Sunday night. I've identified a bull trade in the Diamonds that would be especially enticing if it plays out in the opening minutes of Monday's session.
