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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
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Rick's Picks for Thursday
On Wednesday, gold bounced off of a Hidden Pivot that had been touted several times, and in the process traced out a new pattern, not yet confirmed, whose “D” target is near the all-time high. The Wednesday high was four ticks below our 1257.0 “D” target (mentioned yesterday and in earlier touts), and a quick decline of more than twelve dollars followed. So long as this 1244.1 low is not revisited, a print of 1249.9 would confirm a new, smaller pattern with a midpoint at 1255.6 and “D” target at 1267.2. Traders should continue to bear in mind Friday’s non-farm payrolls announcement, an event which has at times been preceded or immediately followed by heavy selling of gold futures. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
By pushing above a prior peak at 1080.25 that I’d noted here yesterday, the futures created a robustly bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree that is likely to have positive implications beyond the Labor Day holiday. The outlook would grow still more bullish if the rally were to exceed a third peak at 1098.50 either today or tomorrow. Alternatively, sellers would have to push this vehicle down to 1013.25(!), exceeding a low from July 6, to negate the bullishness of yesterday’s move. The best “camouflaged” entry opportunity I can foresee at the moment (i.e., around 12:53 a.m. EDT Thursday) would trigger at 1079.25, based on the pattern shown in the chart, and the odds would be best if this occurs overnight. The midpoint resistance lies at 1081.00, and longs from just below it could breathe a sigh of relief if it’s exceeded, since that would imply an easy ride to the ‘D’ target at 1084.75. _______ UPDATE 1:13 a.m.): Just to be annoying, the little scuzball has made a lower point ‘C’, changing the entry trigger to 1078.25 and the midpoint resistance to 1080.00. You’ll be on your own if this little cat-and-mouse game continues into the night. _______ Further UPDATE (9:39 a.m. EDT): Entry at the new trigger point would have produced a low-stress trade, since the futures went on to achieve 1084.75. As a practical matter, however, the trade would have been less than ideal because the point ‘C’ low of the pattern was formed from multiple bars, not the single one that I (much) prefer.
Whether and when December Silver surpasses the important prior high of 19.55 will tell us a lot about its imminent price action. Despite making a new rally high on Wednesday, the futures failed by two cents to surpass the important prior high of 19.55, visible on the daily and weekly charts. The December contract is hovering just below the first of four crucial prior peaks, and it is not out of the question for all of them to be surpassed quickly, given the energy with which silver trades at times. There will be a battle, of course, but we should not be dogmatic about who will win this one. The four levels to watch on the December chart are 19.55, 19.915, 20.80, and 22.055. And while camouflage is a trading technique that is used primarily on short-term intraday charts, silver traders and investors should take camouflage principles into consideration in analyzing the longer-term silver charts if and when these levels are broken. A first instance would be a meaningful pullback from the 19.655 midpoint pivot described yesterday, should it occur. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
The rally in copper since early last week has spent more than twelve hours bumping up against the midpoint of a pattern which is a thing of beauty. The pivot, at 3.4848, was surpassed by exactly one eighth of a cent on the first try and has repelled three very close approaches since then. We don’t know whether the prohibition against “sloppy seconds” applies to shorting this midpoint, which is a tantalizing possibility as we write. An alternative would be to look on an intraday chart such as the 10-minute for a camouflaged entry on the long side. The series of slightly lower highs could easily give rise to such an opportunity, and a ride up to the sibling “D” target at 3.6135 would be lucrative. Note that in the attached graphic the prices are denominated in cents per pound. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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How Dumb Little Laws Hobble Prosperity
by Ben Rositas on September 1, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 24 comments
[Today’s guest commentary, by Ben Rositas, takes an elliptical path in arguing that dumb little laws and legalistic thinking have helped undermine the sort of self-determination that alone can make real and lasting prosperity possible. RA]
This is probably going to seem off-topic for a Rick’s Picks commentary, but I hope that it becomes clearer at the conclusion. First, a brief history. Most summers, I take on a writing project, usually fiction of one sort or another. I’ve done this for the past 20+ years, and my current project is based on a computer game called Arcanum that was released in the late 90s. I feel kind of silly, being that I’m 34, but when I came across that game recently, I was so intrigued that I bought a copy and spent some time playing it. No wonder the country’s in trouble! But if I could create a rich world and story, I figured it wouldn’t be a total waste. Anyway, as I scanned for material that would help » Read the full article