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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
Gold is near record highs and has given us some new short-term targets. On Wednesday, after a pause at one of our pivots, December gold rallied through the first two targets that we highlighted yesterday. The session high of 1264.7 was about six dollars below the all-time high for the December contract, but it was less than two dollars below the continuous contract high. The rally sparked a violent battle in which the price gyrated up and down within a ten-dollar range. The bears have held the market back for the time being, but the retreat is not yet enough to suggest that an important new downtrend has begun. The day’s trading cancelled the 1271.4 target mentioned yesterday, but we have a fresh short-term pattern whose midpoint is at 1263.3 and “D” target is at 1272.5. Above there, our 1284.1 target remains in effect. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
Silver is regrouping below Wednesday’s rally high, perhaps readying a bid for our 20.45 target. On Wednesday, December Silver rallied to a high of 20.18, encountering resistance in the range we noted in yesterday’s tout. That resistance area will have been surmounted when a trade goes off at 20.22. By contrast, silver would have to decline below its recent lows of 19.585, 19.505, and 19.32 in order to make 20.18 look like an important high. The uptrend is intact, and its next objectives are the “D” target at 20.45 and the prior high of 20.80 from the summer of 2008. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
Bond futures now have active downside targets at 130^31 and 128^17. December bond futures confirmed a new bearish pattern on the daily chart at the opening of today’s session. The pattern will remain in effect so long as its “C” point of 133^12 is not revisited, although the larger bullish trend in the bond market would make that an unsurprising outcome. Indeed, the larger trend suggests that traders should buy the midpoint pivot of the new pattern at 130^31. A bid at 131^01 with a stop at 130^28 would risk a hypothetical $156 per contract. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (2:25 p.m. EDT): The futures made a low at 131^00, filling our order and then rallying gradually to as high as 131^14 before reversing sharply. Traders had plenty of time to manage the position profitably. The reversal broke through the midpoint pivot, suggesting that the “D” target of 128^17 will be reached and will present us with another trading opportunity.
We deconstructed yesterday’s rally during the weekly tutorial session and found only rubbish — in this instance, gratuitous chop driven by feeble buying and an absence of urgent selling. Bulls held a small edge at the bell, but you might as well flip a coin to guess which way things will break Thursday morning. A look-to-the-left peak at 1142.75 (May 18) is still the number to beat if DaBoyz want to trap bulls and bears.
December copper impulsed down violently on Wednesday evening and is close to confirming some new bearish targets. If the futures touch 3.4140 while remaining below 3.4415, new targets will be confirmed at 3.3870 and 3.3325. This occurs within an active bullish pattern on the daily chart, suggesting that a bottom-fishing opportunity might emerge from the intraday action, which is best viewed on the 15-minute chart. The smaller pattern, if confirmed, would justify buy and stop orders placed $0.005 apart from each other, risking a hypothetical $113 per contract. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (2:44 p.m. EDT): The futures moved the “C” point up to 3.4670 and then confirmed it with a sufficient decline, giving us new targets at 3.4125 and 3.3580. We continue to like the idea of buying the midpoint and will leave the tout marked as actionable. Again we recommend risking half a cent ($0.005) per pound of copper on the trade. The stop should be below 3.4100. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (1:20 a.m. EDT, September 10): Copper traded down to 3.4065, stopping us out of the trade before bouncing significantly. In looking at the chart afterward we couldn’t help but notice that had we used the 3.5150 “A” point to the left of the one we did use, we would have nailed it.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Big Business Breeds Failure in New Jersey
by Rick Ackerman on September 8, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 18 comments
[One of my oldest and closest friends, Glenn Klotz, is also one of the most politically liberal. Although I usually assume that many, if not most, of those on the left are factually impaired, that is surely not the case with Glenn. He is up on his facts, well read, and can hold his own in any argument. Following is a letter he wrote me when I challenged his heavy skepticism toward New Jersey’s new Governor, Chris Christie. I think the guy will be great for New Jersey, and that he may even prove to be presidential material. Glenn thinks he is just another Jersey pol who ultimately will favor the interests of Big Business over the little guy. RA]
The long and the short of my position politically these days is this: I’m not an ideologue of either the left or the right. I am however anti-Corporatist. As I see it, the problem in this country today, and in particular in New Jersey, is that BIG is everything. Big Business. Big Government. Together, the two dominate the landscape to the exclusion of anything or anyone else. With their overwhelming political power, economic clout and their sheer size, these dinosaur-sized Enterprises and Orgs, both public and private, are squeezing out smaller public and private businesses and institutions. On the » Read the full article