December 21st, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

[Our recent offer of three $1000 scholarships to the January 11-12 Hidden Pivot Webinar brought a deluge of applications – more than 100 so far. The deadline was originally set for December 29, but we’re moving it forward to this Sunday, 11:59 p.m. so that we can provide a decision to you as soon as possible. Click here to nominate yourself or anyone else whom you think could benefit from the intensive, individualized mentoring that will be given to the scholarship winners. One recent graduate of the Hidden Pivot Webinar had this to say: “I will never look at charts the same way again. I have made back the cost of the course many times over both from trades taken, and just as important, from trades I stayed away from.”

For those who have already taken the course or who plan to take it, there are some significant benefits.  Read about them below in the message from my wife, Marilyn, who is administering this first-time-ever offer. RA]

Attention all Hidden Pivot Webinar graduates! We have some special benefits for you coming up in January. As you may know, Rick has offered our first-ever scholarships for three seats in the January 11-12 webinar.  His goal is to take three unlikely candidates and turn them into traders. How is he going to do that? And, what’s in it for you? For the next three months, Rick will be taking these three students through a thorough program to turn them into traders. This will include weekly online sessions with the students and special classes devoted to helping them achieve mastery of the Hidden Pivot Method. You can sit in on these interactive sessions, too. You will be able to refresh your knowledge and skill-set and get even more real-time guidance – directly from Rick – while he is showing the students the ropes.

What do you have to do to qualify?

The only requirements to attend these sessions are that: 1) you must have already taken the Hidden Pivot webinar or  registered for the January 11-12 class; and 2) you must be a current subscriber to the weekly real-time tutorials held on Wednesday mornings (and recorded for viewing at your convenience). If you need to renew or restart your subscription to the Wednesday Real Time Tutorials, simply log in to your account page at www.rickackerman.com and add that product to your subscription. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

A Light Touch of Larceny

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:37 am GMT

We hold two open positions, one a partial butterfly spread that will give us some riskless leverage on a rally into year’s end if we can complete it with stocks sharply on-the-rise.  Late Thursday night, index futures were up, but not by enough to suggest that DaScumballs were fixing to pull out the rug. It looks more like they are trying to restrain buyers, actually, with the goal of short-squeezing the opening on whatever news they’ve been told is coming.  _______ UPDATE (4:01 a.m. EST):  Overnight action has gifted us with a long trade in Feb Gold that is still “live,” and a profit-taking opportunity a single tick from our target and two ticks off the so-far high in the E-Mini S&P.  Check out my updates for further, detailed trading guidance.


Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1216.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:39 am GMT

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QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:54.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:51 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1595.40)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:10 am GMT

February Gold (GCG12) price chart with targetsWe already know the bad news — that the futures appear likely to fall to at least 1459.40, or to 1424.80 if any lower — so let’s shift our focus to some bullish alternatives just to keep an open mind.  For starters, the good guys could retake control of the 30-minute chart with a thrust over the next 2-3 days exceeding 1635.20, a small peak made Wednesday on the way down.  However, a more subtle signal — view it as an early alert — would be generated with a print today at 1590.20. Depending on how the rally from Thursday afternoon’s low plays out, a pullback from just above that number could create a low-risk entry spot for camouflageurs.  I’ve sketched out this possibility on the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (3:45 a.m. EST):  A pattern much like the one I sketched — with single-bar coordinates at points A and C — tripped an entry signal at 1588.20 at around 12:20 a.m. (A=1585.60 at 10:30 p.m., B=1592.10, and C=1586.50). Half of a four-contract position would have been exited at the 1589.80 midpoint of the pattern, and a third contract at 1593.00, the D target of the pattern. Imputing theoretical gains of 6.40 to the contract that remains yields an effective cost basis of 1581.80.  For now, use a stop-loss at 1579.70, a few ticks below the ‘d’ target of a minor, corrective ABC that was playing out at around 3:45 a.m. If the futures turn and go higher without triggering the stop, use a 3.20-trailing stop above 1601.00.  We’re not swinging for the fence on this one, but we are going for extra bases. _______ EXIT UPDATE 11:05 a.m. EST):  The futures spiked to a high of 1603.50 at 7:35 a.m., and so we exited at 1599.50 when they detumesced. The selloff came all the way down to 1585.10, so we save ourselves a pretty penny by heeding the stop. Our theoretical gain on this trade was $1770. The futures have been unable since to surpass the 1603.50 peak, but they are working on a bullish impulse leg nonetheless with potential to as high as 1604.40 (5-min, A=1585.10 at 9:40 a.m., B=1599.90). So far, the C-D segment has stalled at 1596.30, 0.70 from the 1597.00 midpoint resistance associated with 1604.

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.370)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:19 am GMT

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ECZ11 – December Euro (Last:1.3052)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:29 am GMT

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$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2030.50)

by Rick Ackerman on December 18, 2014 6:51 am GMT

Volatility is getting pretty nasty, although that shouldn’t discourage us from trying to get a step ahead of these wild swings. That much was clear yesterday, when the S&Ps actually dipped 30 minutes into the session before exploding higher. The subsequent undulations and bullish lurches were driven by the timing of yesterday’s FOMC announcement late in the session, but it was never in doubt that the futures would work their way higher, if spasmodically, until the announcement came. For now, we’ll use the  2024.75 target shown as a minimum rally objective. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at the 2005.00 midpoint pivot, although I wouldn’t risk the implied six points that a “mechanical” entry would dictate. _______ UPDATE (8:42 a.m.): The trade would have worked spectacularly, since the futures touched an overnight low of  2004.50 before going into a ballistic, 31-point rally worth as much as $1500 per contract to anyone who bought as advised. An initial stop-loss as tight as three ticks would have sufficed to get you aboard.

$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1198.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 18, 2014 6:30 am GMT

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$USH15 – March T-Bonds (Last:143^19)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 5:29 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:24.72)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2014 4:03 am GMT

Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely.  I’m going to back up the truck myself — buying at either number or both, tightly stopped — and would do so not as a long-term play, but as a high-odds trade. Please note that although the 20.83 pivot has the potential to produce an important low, I’ve selected a chart that shows the alternative target at 17.30 so that you can judge for yourself how compelling it looks.  One further note:  Because yesterday’s plunge exceeded the previous bear-market low at 22.34 recorded on 11/5, it should have stopped out enough bulls to produce a spirited rally over the next day or two.  Under the circumstances, if such a rally fails to materialize, it would portend yet another wave of selling ahead. _____ UPDATE (December 17, 11:59 p.m.): Like gold futures, this vehicle rallied yesterday without quite reaching a downside target. That’s mildly bullish, but GDXJ will need to pop above 23.71 on Thursday to ‘actualize’ the encouraging start. ______ UPDATE (December 18, 8:39 p.m.): The nearest impediment to the rally lies at 25.18, a Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. Bulls can take encouragement if it’s exceeded — and perhaps get long if the ascent goes a bit further, exceeding the 25.62 peak and pulling back into a tradable ABC pattern.

$CLF15 – January Crude (Last:53.98)

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2014 4:15 am GMT

Crude is getting kicked again Sunday night, although the January NYMEX contract is trading 85 cents off its low at the moment. The so-far low is 56.25, but I would expect the futures to get closer to my 55.43 target (see inset) before they attempt to rally in earnest. Night owls can try bottom-fishing using ‘camouflage’ nevertheless, but if you want to use a simpler, albeit riskier, strategy, you can bid 55.43, stop 55.34 for a single contract. I have difficulty imagining significantly more sinkage without a bounce from somewhere near here, but if the stop gets schmeissed, the next logical stop on the way down would be at 53.45, or 50.69 if any lower. However robust the bounce, assuming one comes, my bear-market target is still $31. The economic world would be a very different place at that point, and I don’t mean in a good way. _______ UPDATE (December 15, 10:39 p.m.): The 55.43 pivot is holding so far on a closing basis, having been exceeded intraday by 0.41 points. That’s more than I would have expected, but I still think we’ll see a strong rally from here, or from very near these levels, since the target is so clear and compelling. If not, and the futures continue their relentless plunge, the targets given above, 53.45 and thence 50,69, will obtain. Traders with no position, or those who are managing the risk of a short position, should note that the January contract was in an uptrend late Monday night that projected to exactly 56.13. You can find this target on the 15-minute chart using the following coordinates: a=55.17 (12/15 at 4:45 p.m. EST); b= 55.85 (6:45 p.m.); and c=55.45 (8:10 p.m.). This pattern looks reliable enough that we should infer more upside to come if 56.13 is exceeded by more 10-15 cents. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 9:33 a.m.): Crude fell this morning to a newe multiyear low at 53.60, just 15 cents from the target given above. If you caught the 1.16 bounce from the low, you should have taken a partial profit and secured what remains with an ‘impulsive stop-loss’.  The bounce is less than I might have expected, and if the low gets taken out we’ll likely be looking at more slippage to 50.69.

$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher.


This Just In... for Friday

With the eyes of the world on Europe’s slow-motion train wreck, is it possible that MF Global, whose troubles were initially spun as an eentsy-weentsy $4B fender-bender, will turn out to be the Black Swan?  The bankrupt broker’s saga has taken a fascinating new turn with news this weekend that the trustee plans to seize — and liquidate — gold and silver held for customers by MF Global.  Click here for the full story at Jesse’s Cafe Americain.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on Monday, January 12, 2015. For more information, or to register, click here.