September 16th, 2014
Published Daily
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[Our recent offer of three $1000 scholarships to the January 11-12 Hidden Pivot Webinar brought a deluge of applications – more than 100 so far. The deadline was originally set for December 29, but we’re moving it forward to this Sunday, 11:59 p.m. so that we can provide a decision to you as soon as possible. Click here to nominate yourself or anyone else whom you think could benefit from the intensive, individualized mentoring that will be given to the scholarship winners. One recent graduate of the Hidden Pivot Webinar had this to say: “I will never look at charts the same way again. I have made back the cost of the course many times over both from trades taken, and just as important, from trades I stayed away from.”

For those who have already taken the course or who plan to take it, there are some significant benefits.  Read about them below in the message from my wife, Marilyn, who is administering this first-time-ever offer. RA]

Attention all Hidden Pivot Webinar graduates! We have some special benefits for you coming up in January. As you may know, Rick has offered our first-ever scholarships for three seats in the January 11-12 webinar.  His goal is to take three unlikely candidates and turn them into traders. How is he going to do that? And, what’s in it for you? For the next three months, Rick will be taking these three students through a thorough program to turn them into traders. This will include weekly online sessions with the students and special classes devoted to helping them achieve mastery of the Hidden Pivot Method. You can sit in on these interactive sessions, too. You will be able to refresh your knowledge and skill-set and get even more real-time guidance – directly from Rick – while he is showing the students the ropes.

What do you have to do to qualify?

The only requirements to attend these sessions are that: 1) you must have already taken the Hidden Pivot webinar or  registered for the January 11-12 class; and 2) you must be a current subscriber to the weekly real-time tutorials held on Wednesday mornings (and recorded for viewing at your convenience). If you need to renew or restart your subscription to the Wednesday Real Time Tutorials, simply log in to your account page at www.rickackerman.com and add that product to your subscription. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

A Light Touch of Larceny

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:37 am GMT

We hold two open positions, one a partial butterfly spread that will give us some riskless leverage on a rally into year’s end if we can complete it with stocks sharply on-the-rise.  Late Thursday night, index futures were up, but not by enough to suggest that DaScumballs were fixing to pull out the rug. It looks more like they are trying to restrain buyers, actually, with the goal of short-squeezing the opening on whatever news they’ve been told is coming.  _______ UPDATE (4:01 a.m. EST):  Overnight action has gifted us with a long trade in Feb Gold that is still “live,” and a profit-taking opportunity a single tick from our target and two ticks off the so-far high in the E-Mini S&P.  Check out my updates for further, detailed trading guidance.


Rick's Picks for Friday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
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All Picks By Issue:

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1216.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:39 am GMT

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QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:54.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:51 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1595.40)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:10 am GMT

February Gold (GCG12) price chart with targetsWe already know the bad news — that the futures appear likely to fall to at least 1459.40, or to 1424.80 if any lower — so let’s shift our focus to some bullish alternatives just to keep an open mind.  For starters, the good guys could retake control of the 30-minute chart with a thrust over the next 2-3 days exceeding 1635.20, a small peak made Wednesday on the way down.  However, a more subtle signal — view it as an early alert — would be generated with a print today at 1590.20. Depending on how the rally from Thursday afternoon’s low plays out, a pullback from just above that number could create a low-risk entry spot for camouflageurs.  I’ve sketched out this possibility on the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (3:45 a.m. EST):  A pattern much like the one I sketched — with single-bar coordinates at points A and C — tripped an entry signal at 1588.20 at around 12:20 a.m. (A=1585.60 at 10:30 p.m., B=1592.10, and C=1586.50). Half of a four-contract position would have been exited at the 1589.80 midpoint of the pattern, and a third contract at 1593.00, the D target of the pattern. Imputing theoretical gains of 6.40 to the contract that remains yields an effective cost basis of 1581.80.  For now, use a stop-loss at 1579.70, a few ticks below the ‘d’ target of a minor, corrective ABC that was playing out at around 3:45 a.m. If the futures turn and go higher without triggering the stop, use a 3.20-trailing stop above 1601.00.  We’re not swinging for the fence on this one, but we are going for extra bases. _______ EXIT UPDATE 11:05 a.m. EST):  The futures spiked to a high of 1603.50 at 7:35 a.m., and so we exited at 1599.50 when they detumesced. The selloff came all the way down to 1585.10, so we save ourselves a pretty penny by heeding the stop. Our theoretical gain on this trade was $1770. The futures have been unable since to surpass the 1603.50 peak, but they are working on a bullish impulse leg nonetheless with potential to as high as 1604.40 (5-min, A=1585.10 at 9:40 a.m., B=1599.90). So far, the C-D segment has stalled at 1596.30, 0.70 from the 1597.00 midpoint resistance associated with 1604.

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.370)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:19 am GMT

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ECZ11 – December Euro (Last:1.3052)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:29 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:18.655)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2014 1:25 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:23.02)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 6:06 am GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1234.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 5:50 am GMT

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$+ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1975.25)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 4:07 am GMT

We’ll soon see whether bears have the guts, composure and good sense to let their profit run, since the futures have gotten within an inch of the 1972.00 correction target shown. As always, a decisive move through such a clear Hidden Pivot support would imply there is selling power remaining to be spent. In this case, however, the Sunday night Sleazeballs have opened the E-Minis with a 13-point air pocket that suggests they’re worried. That’s a pretty brazen heist, but it also reflect the reality that every point of it was needed to completely exhaust sellers ahead of an equally brazen run-up. The logical place to short this manipulation is near the 1984.75 midpoint pivot (p) shown. Night owls should use camouflage or a mechanical stop to accomplish this. The latter implies 5.00 points of entry risk, predicated on 15 points of downside potential.  For the record, I remain short this vehicle in my BlueFin account from near the all-time high, having stood pat during Thursday’s nasty short squeeze. _______ UPDATE (11:24 p.m. EDT): The corresponding target, basis the December contract, is 1962.50.  It will leave DaBoyz with a little more room if they need to take ‘er down a second time to dry up sellers ahead of another short squeeze.  The short noted above would therefore be from p=1977.00 _______ UPDATE (10:28 a.m.): If you shorted 1977.00 as I suggested, the trade would have produced a profit of as much as $375 per contract, since the futures dove 7.50 points from an opening-bar high this morning at 1978.00.  They are ratcheting higher at the moment, bears quite evidently lacking in guts, composure and good sense, but we at least came away with the best trade of the day so far.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17025)

by Rick Ackerman on September 12, 2014 12:01 am GMT

When a stock or an index takes a wicked dive, it often occurs after the particular vehicle has marginally exceeded some prior, significant peak. ‘Everyone’ turns bullish on the breakout, including bears prepared to cover on a hair-trigger signal, and that sets up the haymaker. Notice in the accompanying chart, however, that the record high recorded by the Dow on September 4 has led to no such plunge.  The high exceeded July’s record peak by 10 points, and that should have been enough to get bulls’ — and bears’ — juices flowing.  Instead, we’ve seen only a moderate pullback since then, leaving bears very much on the hook.  We could still see a collapse from these levels, particularly if there is unsettling news. But for the time being, bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high. We are short the Diamonds via some out-of-the-money put options just in case, but we may have to reshort if DIA breaks out to new highs. (Note: This tout is being written before Thursday’s close, since I will be away from the office later today.)

$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:113.38)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2014 1:29 am GMT

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$INX – S&P 500 (CME) (Last:1985.54)

by Rick Ackerman on September 9, 2014 1:19 am GMT

An alert chat-room denizen spotted the target shown, and it’s a jim-dandy.  Pivoteers will notice that the point ‘A’ low seems to be positioned in the middle of nowhere.  In fact, it is at 244, the low of the 1987 Crash. The remaining two coordinates are so clear as to leave little doubt about the importance of the resulting 2028.44 Hidden Pivot target. So far, the S&Ps have gotten as high as 2011.17 — close enough for us to infer that a MAJOR top may already be in.  If so, we are covered via DIA puts that I suggested buying and which are still attractive (see tout for details). As I noted in the chat room, it is inconceivable to me that the stock market will NOT make a top of at least tradable importance very near the target, so you should position accordingly. ______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 7:56 p.m.): There are more exchange vehicles tracking the S&P 500 that one can count, but depending on which you use, the Hidden Pivot target given above could be as low as 2018.04.  If so, that would mean that the so-far high at 2011.77 came even closer to fulfilling a price objective that had been  27 years in coming. Our trading bias should therefore be bearish, with wider-than-usual-stops for any short positions taken. See today’s E-Mini S&P tout if  you want a precise way to gauge the bear’s strength at any point in time. _______ UPDATE (September 15, 12:43 a.m. EDT): So far, so good — even if progress to the downside has been labored. The INX appears bound for the 1982.23 target of (on the hourly chart) A=2007.51 (9/5): B=1982.99 (9/10); C=1997.65 (9/11).  The current correction up to (and slightly past) the 1985.29 midpoint pivot is therefore short-able if via camouflage.

$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:171.27)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:58 am GMT

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$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2562)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:279.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 3, 2014 5:30 am GMT

Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07.  This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled.  Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread.  We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.

+GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:37.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 2, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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This Just In... for Friday

With the eyes of the world on Europe’s slow-motion train wreck, is it possible that MF Global, whose troubles were initially spun as an eentsy-weentsy $4B fender-bender, will turn out to be the Black Swan?  The bankrupt broker’s saga has taken a fascinating new turn with news this weekend that the trustee plans to seize — and liquidate — gold and silver held for customers by MF Global.  Click here for the full story at Jesse’s Cafe Americain.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on October 16, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.