April 23rd, 2014
Published Daily
Topic of the Week

[Our recent offer of three $1000 scholarships to the January 11-12 Hidden Pivot Webinar brought a deluge of applications – more than 100 so far. The deadline was originally set for December 29, but we’re moving it forward to this Sunday, 11:59 p.m. so that we can provide a decision to you as soon as possible. Click here to nominate yourself or anyone else whom you think could benefit from the intensive, individualized mentoring that will be given to the scholarship winners. One recent graduate of the Hidden Pivot Webinar had this to say: “I will never look at charts the same way again. I have made back the cost of the course many times over both from trades taken, and just as important, from trades I stayed away from.”

For those who have already taken the course or who plan to take it, there are some significant benefits.  Read about them below in the message from my wife, Marilyn, who is administering this first-time-ever offer. RA]

Attention all Hidden Pivot Webinar graduates! We have some special benefits for you coming up in January. As you may know, Rick has offered our first-ever scholarships for three seats in the January 11-12 webinar.  His goal is to take three unlikely candidates and turn them into traders. How is he going to do that? And, what’s in it for you? For the next three months, Rick will be taking these three students through a thorough program to turn them into traders. This will include weekly online sessions with the students and special classes devoted to helping them achieve mastery of the Hidden Pivot Method. You can sit in on these interactive sessions, too. You will be able to refresh your knowledge and skill-set and get even more real-time guidance – directly from Rick – while he is showing the students the ropes.

What do you have to do to qualify?

The only requirements to attend these sessions are that: 1) you must have already taken the Hidden Pivot webinar or  registered for the January 11-12 class; and 2) you must be a current subscriber to the weekly real-time tutorials held on Wednesday mornings (and recorded for viewing at your convenience). If you need to renew or restart your subscription to the Wednesday Real Time Tutorials, simply log in to your account page at www.rickackerman.com and add that product to your subscription. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

A Light Touch of Larceny

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:37 am GMT

We hold two open positions, one a partial butterfly spread that will give us some riskless leverage on a rally into year’s end if we can complete it with stocks sharply on-the-rise.  Late Thursday night, index futures were up, but not by enough to suggest that DaScumballs were fixing to pull out the rug. It looks more like they are trying to restrain buyers, actually, with the goal of short-squeezing the opening on whatever news they’ve been told is coming.  _______ UPDATE (4:01 a.m. EST):  Overnight action has gifted us with a long trade in Feb Gold that is still “live,” and a profit-taking opportunity a single tick from our target and two ticks off the so-far high in the E-Mini S&P.  Check out my updates for further, detailed trading guidance.


Rick's Picks for Friday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1216.75)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:39 am GMT

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QQQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:54.90)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 3:51 am GMT

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GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1595.40)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:10 am GMT

February Gold (GCG12) price chart with targetsWe already know the bad news — that the futures appear likely to fall to at least 1459.40, or to 1424.80 if any lower — so let’s shift our focus to some bullish alternatives just to keep an open mind.  For starters, the good guys could retake control of the 30-minute chart with a thrust over the next 2-3 days exceeding 1635.20, a small peak made Wednesday on the way down.  However, a more subtle signal — view it as an early alert — would be generated with a print today at 1590.20. Depending on how the rally from Thursday afternoon’s low plays out, a pullback from just above that number could create a low-risk entry spot for camouflageurs.  I’ve sketched out this possibility on the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (3:45 a.m. EST):  A pattern much like the one I sketched — with single-bar coordinates at points A and C — tripped an entry signal at 1588.20 at around 12:20 a.m. (A=1585.60 at 10:30 p.m., B=1592.10, and C=1586.50). Half of a four-contract position would have been exited at the 1589.80 midpoint of the pattern, and a third contract at 1593.00, the D target of the pattern. Imputing theoretical gains of 6.40 to the contract that remains yields an effective cost basis of 1581.80.  For now, use a stop-loss at 1579.70, a few ticks below the ‘d’ target of a minor, corrective ABC that was playing out at around 3:45 a.m. If the futures turn and go higher without triggering the stop, use a 3.20-trailing stop above 1601.00.  We’re not swinging for the fence on this one, but we are going for extra bases. _______ EXIT UPDATE 11:05 a.m. EST):  The futures spiked to a high of 1603.50 at 7:35 a.m., and so we exited at 1599.50 when they detumesced. The selloff came all the way down to 1585.10, so we save ourselves a pretty penny by heeding the stop. Our theoretical gain on this trade was $1770. The futures have been unable since to surpass the 1603.50 peak, but they are working on a bullish impulse leg nonetheless with potential to as high as 1604.40 (5-min, A=1585.10 at 9:40 a.m., B=1599.90). So far, the C-D segment has stalled at 1596.30, 0.70 from the 1597.00 midpoint resistance associated with 1604.

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:29.370)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 4:19 am GMT

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ECZ11 – December Euro (Last:1.3052)

by Rick Ackerman on December 16, 2011 5:29 am GMT

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$+CLM14 – June Crude (Last:101.38)

by Rick Ackerman on April 23, 2014 4:41 pm GMT

The midpoint pivot at 101.28 that I’d flagged yesterday in the chat room as a place to try bottom-fishing appears to have served subscribers well. Several subscribers have reported getting long at that price ahead of the so-far 88-cent rally that has ensued. This morning’s low never exceeded the pivot by more than eight cents, and the rally since could have produced a gain of as much as $800 per contract for anyone who was aboard.  Because of the fills that were reported, I’m going to establish a tracking position for your further guidance. Assuming four contracts were entered initially, you should take partial profits on half now if you haven’t done so already. For tracking purposes, I’ll assume an exit at 101.80, a dime below where the futures are currently trading.

I’ll further suggest using an impulse leg-based stop on the 30-minute chart. This implies that a swoon now to 101.19 would take one out of the position. The stop-out price will rise to 101.45 if the current bar’s low, 101.72, becomes a point C low (where A=101.46 at 9:00 a.m. ET). _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. ET):  A very nasty downdraft has erased most of the rally in a single bar on the 30-minute chart.  Stick to the 101.19 stop for now, but use a breakeven stop if you held only one contract.

$ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1874.00)

by Rick Ackerman on April 23, 2014 3:24 am GMT

The leaps have been opportunistic, powered by short-covering whenever the mood is right. Most of the time these days, however, the futures are taking mincing steps in both directions, creating a challenging environment for profit-seekers in the middle hours of the day. One thing to notice, however, is that the rallies, particularly in this vehicle, and whether weak or powerful, seldom proceed from the first signaled entry point.  Instead, the ‘money trades’ launch from a second or third point-C lows of ABCD patterns, and they do it with such repetitious reliability that one can practically discard the first signaled entry opportunities routinely. This is the kind of price action we might expect when ‘everyone’ thinks that stocks will move higher on a given day. ‘Everyone’ can be right, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can make money easily. For your interest today, I am including a chart that shows a modest rally target at 1895.00. I’m guessing it will be easier to get short there with a tight stop than to get long for the ride to it. However, because the futures will be in record territory at that point, we shouldn’t want to impede their progress too aggressively.

$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1230.18)

by Rick Ackerman on April 22, 2014 4:00 am GMT

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Since March 20, when GDXJ was trading for around $40, I have been looking for a potentially important low at 34.00.  More recently, I revised that target to exactly 33.76, a ‘Hidden Pivot support’. Yesterday it came within a single penny of nailing the exact low of a vicious swoon. The low may or may not prove to be the last gasp of a correction that has been in progress for the last five weeks, but it stood to be an opportune place to try bottom-fishing.  In that regard, quite a few subscribers reported getting aboard at or near the low, and so I’ve established a tracking position for their further guidance. It consists of 200 shares with a cost basis of 33.58. The price takes into account an initial purchase of 400 shares for 33.79, then the taking of a partial profit on half the position at 34.00.  The bounce so far has hit 34.90, meaning GDXJ has trampolined $1.14 cents since hitting my three-week-old target.  For now, traders should stop themselves out of the position if GDXJ breaches two prior lows on the 5-minute chart without an upward correction.  As of this moment, that would imply placing the stop at 34.37 (and remember: it must be exceeded by an unbroken, downtrending leg).  You should also offer a round lot (or half of the remaining position, whichever is greater) to close for 36.80, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (11:38 p.m. ET): The herky-jerky spasms in the first 90 minutes altered our stop-loss so that it would have taken a 34.07 print to stop us out — 23 cents beneath the actual low. I’ll now suggest raising the bar by using an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. That would imply a fall today touching 34.29.  Please note, however, that the stop could change if zig-zag action early in the session creates any distinctive new lows on the intraday charts. Our target for the next profit-taking interval is still 36.80.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:79.89)

by Rick Ackerman on April 21, 2014 5:25 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^01)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week’s fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.


This Just In... for Friday

With the eyes of the world on Europe’s slow-motion train wreck, is it possible that MF Global, whose troubles were initially spun as an eentsy-weentsy $4B fender-bender, will turn out to be the Black Swan?  The bankrupt broker’s saga has taken a fascinating new turn with news this weekend that the trustee plans to seize — and liquidate — gold and silver held for customers by MF Global.  Click here for the full story at Jesse’s Cafe Americain.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on May 21-22, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.