Monday, April 2, 2012

May Silver has opened with a bullishly impulsive thrust Sunday night, but the futures will need to do more work to set up the camouflage opportunity we require to put us on board for cheap. For further details, along with a chart that shows why this could go for extra bases, see Monday's touts.

Having opened higher on a modest gap Sunday night, the futures have yet to pull back to the 32.400 'window' line where they would presumably be recharged for a follow-through thrust of as much as 44 cents.  Camouflageurs can buy two contracts at the first signaled 'X', but you'll need to locate the trade in a time frame that would subject you to theoretical entry risk no greater than $60 per contract.  I will establish a tracking position 1) if such an opportunity has in fact occurred, and 2) someone confirms having done the trade in the chat room.  The added incentive to get long here is that you may be catching a ride on the larger uptrend begun Thursday from 31.640 and targeting 32.990.

The June Dollar has a little ways to go before it reaches a Hidden Pivot support at 78.505 that could reverse the corrective trend begun two weeks ago. Bottom-fishing via camouflage is encouraged as always, but the pattern, with two single-bar coordinates on the 30-minute chart, is sufficiently appealing that you could also try getting long via a 78.515 bid and an initial stop-loss of three ticks.  If the stop is hit, the futures would be signaling more downside to at least 78.105.  ________ UPDATE (4:06 p.m. EDT): After trading no lower than 78.795 overnight, dollar futures took a whoopee cushion bounce, presumably for some reason so stupid that you'd have to be either mentally retarded, an economist or a Wall Street pro to care. The news appears to have been that the latest Fed minutes evinced no commitment to further easing.  Did any of the morons who goosed the dollar read the other day that the Fed had bought 61% of all Treasury paper that came to auction in 2011?

The bounce off Thursday's low has not yet gone impulsive, even on the 30-minute chart, although it is sufficient to warrant giving bulls the benefit of the doubt when trading resumes Sunday night. Their challenge will be to push this vehicle past the 1681.60 midpoint shown; for, once decisively above it, the rally would be no worse than an even-odds bet to hit 1716.50, the 'D' sibling, in short order. Camouflageurs may want to note that there are several small 'external' peaks just below the midpoint that could be leveraged for advantageous entry. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot webinar and a coupon good for a $50 discount.)

Friday's pathetic excuse for a rally died within a single tick of the 1406.00 midpoint resistance shown. If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded come Sunday night, however, look for short-covering to drive the futures at least to its 'D' sibling, 1425.50 (which number, incidentally, you can short with a three-tick stop-loss).  Camouflageurs can try getting long on a B-C pullback from just above the external peak at 1407.75 visible on the 3-minute chart (3/28 at 10:06 a.m. EDT).  _______ UPDATE Sunday, 9:09 p.m.) The unmitigated scumballs who work the night shift (full disclosure: I was a floor trader myself for 12 years and am using the word 'scumballs' affectionately) have done what they do best on Sunday nights -- i.e., gapped the futures higher on near-zero volume.  This routine rip-off is bullishly impulsive, of course, but it has left no subtle camouflage opportunities for us to exploit at the moment. My gut hunch is that a tradable 'X' will come following the second 'C' of this so-far pattern on the 15-minute chart: A=1401.50 (4:15 p.m. EDT on March 30), B=1410.25.  In any event, absent short-squeezable news overnight, there is not likely to be sufficient buying power for DaBoyz to attempt to run stops above Wednesday's 1412.25 peak.  Under the circumstances, we should look for a relatively shallow correction overnight to set up a short-squeeze goosing just before, or immediately after, Monday's opening bell.