Tuesday, September 4, 2012

The gold futures are now targeting 1734.30 after Friday's slingshot rebound off of the day's important low.  We were watching all last week for a decline to below 1650, and we finally got it during Bernanke's speech.  The powerful rally that followed confirmed the 1647.10 low as the 'C' point of a strong bullish pattern on the daily and intraday charts.  The pattern had emerged over twelve trading sessions, but the rally was so powerful that the pattern's midpoint was surpassed only four hours after the 'C' low was made.  On the weekly chart, gold is still impulsing upward from the same 'A' point, at 1592.10.  It looks as if the market will need to expend more bullish energy before we get a suitable pullback on the weekly timeframe.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

The predators who work the Sunday night-shift have no idea what to make of whatever it was The 'Nank said on Friday, and so they are waiting till Monday morning to see what the mindless herd thinks.  I'd rather not even hazard a guess myself.

Ponder a month's worth of hourly bars and you can see how trying to surf a wave is an exercise in futility. That's notwithstanding the fact that the pattern shown projects to 1470.75, the equivalent of a 500-point Dow rally. Since it's impossible to guess what sort of news could trigger off a short-squeeze of that magnitude, the only way we might hope to spot it as it leaves the launching pad is by looking for impulsive thrusts on charts of lesser degree.  In that regard, the subtlest 'external' peak I can offer for getting long via camouflage is the one at 1414.50 shown in the chart.  A 'b-c' pullback from within a tick or two above it would create the kind of subtle opportunity that's worth waiting for.  Please let me know in the chat room if you fill so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.  _______ UPDATE (September 6, 10:50 a.m. EDT):  Today's rabid short-squeeze -- propelled, it would appear, by jobs news -- is so vicious as to have offered no easy entry opportunities, camouflage or otherwise.  It is an apparent installment on the 1470.00 target (adjusted slightly after a recalculation, 60m: A=1349.26 on 8/2; B=1424.75 on 8/21; and C=1394.50 on 9/4) given above, but we should expect a stall at exactly 1432.25, the pattern's p midpoint, to confirm.)  ________ UPDATE (2:21 .m. EDT):  Big surprise...NOT!  The futures have in fact topped today at exactly 1432.25. Since this occurred in the final moments of the regular session, however, I warned in the chat room against shorting the nasty little sonofabitch.  The good news is that the rally's stall precisely at the Hidden Pivot midpoint has left zero doubt about the validity of its 1470.00 'D' sibling.  Please note, however, that a follow-though

[We never tire of explaining why Facebook shares are just so much worthless crap, but the message seems to have been lost on the clueless hacks who bring us the business news each day. Over Labor Day weekend, they and their dim-witted "sources" (analysts hired under CETA?) were in an apoplectic tizzy over FB's latest plunge to yet another all-time low of 18.03.  Explained the au courant Market Watch: "Facebook Inc. slumped to a record low on Friday after a pair of brokers slashed their price targets on the stock."  Ahh. So that was it!  The Business [alleged] Insider headlined this shocker: "It's Becoming Clear That No One Actually Read Facebook's IPO Prospectus..." And the L.A. Times, taking a rare breather from Obama-mongering, had some bad news for government workers: "Public pension funds stung by Facebook's falling stock..." So. The pension-fund biggies are in Facebook shares up to tips of their pointed little heads.  Who knew?  To set them straight, and as a public  service, we have republished below a commentary from August 21 that spelled out not only the reasons why Facebook is headed significantly lower, but the exact price where the stock will attempt a dead-cat bounce: 13.97. For all of you portfolio managers unable to do the math, that's 22.8% beneath Friday's close.  And please don't tell us later that you weren't warned about buying the stock at these levels -- or that you never put much store in technical analysis.  RA] Facebook shares took another hellacious dive last week when the lock-up period for insider selling ended on Thursday.  Gluttonously coveted by investors in the months leading up to the IPO, the stock has become a pariah after falling 50% from its $38 offering price in May. Was it jinxed from the start, as some have