Friday's avalanche stopped a single tick shy of the 144^15 target I'd flagged here earlier. The possibility that the long bull market is over is growing, but we should reserve judgment until we've seen how much support, if any, the futures pick up at 144^15. If they instead continue to fall without an upward 'b-c' pause, breaching the small 'external' low at 143^00 recorded on May 10, that would provide further evidence that bears will remain in charge, at least for the intermediate term (i.e., about 3-5 weeks in this case). There will be double support down near 143 since, as you can see, an alternative 'D' target sits at 143^03. Alternatively, it would take a print at 147^24 for bulls to turn things around even moderately on the hourly chart.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Rosh Hashanah Schedule
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksAlthough I will not be at my desk during the Rosh Hashanah holiday on Monday/Tuesday, trading touts will be in Doug 'Harry' McLagan's capable hands. To those of you who observe the Jewish New Year, let me wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous 5773. Sunday evening begins a ten-day holiday period culminating next Wednesday with Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement.
ESZ12 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1456.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksBuyers had little trouble getting past a compelling Hidden Pivot target at 1462.00 that I'd flagged, implying they will be in a buying mood when the new week begins. Although index futures are off by a few points early Sunday night, it's probably because DaBoyz are unable to scare even the nervous Nellies into parting with some contracts. To get long, camouflageurs should use the look-to-the-left peak at 1461.25 that I've highlighted in the chart. A 'b-c' pullback from just above it would provide the kind of subtle cover we look for to initiate trades where few others are looking. Notice as well that the 1458.00 'x' trigger of the larger pattern has already been hit, but that the most recent upthrust was not genuinely impulsive because it did not exceed any 'external' peaks.
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:699.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksWith a huge rally, Apple has started to juice our Oct-Sep 700 call spread a few days earlier than we might have wanted. However, with September expiration bearing down on the stock, it is reasonable to expect a $700 'peg' even if AAPL gyrates $10-$15 above or below that price during the week. We paid $10 for the spread (2x) with the goal of generating a gains to offset the $14 cost of eight December-Oct 620 puts spread that we also hold. For now, do nothing. In theory, the call spread could trade for as much as $23, giving us a profit of $2600 on the position. In practice, however, we'll be doing quite well to exit it for perhaps $16-$18. Earlier, I advised covering Sep 615 puts shorted for $6.20 for 0.37. _______ UPDATE (September 18, 10:07 a.m. EDT): Exit the spread for $15, day order. It is an easy sale at the moment for $14. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar. If you sign up now, we’ll ship you the 200-page course manual, a CD-ROM with more than 3000 annotated charts, and some dandy Rick’s Picks swag.
