Monday, January 14, 2013

I'd suggest not taking this vehicle too seriously at the moment, since it seems bound and determined to screw with our heads.  In any case, the best clue we'll have concerning the short-term trend will be price action at the p midpoint of the pattern shown. A bounce from within a couple of ticks of it would be a first step in the resumption of the bull trend, still viable, that began last summer. Keep in mind that p could migrate higher if gold's so-far timid ascent Sunday night continues. ______ UPDATE (9:16 a.m. EST): February Gold has rallied a gratuitous $15 within a meaningless range this morning -- stronger than the behavior shown in the chart I'd sketched out, but not so strongly as to imply anything in particular.

I returned from the Hard Asset Conference in San Francisco in November with a ringing endorsement of Altius cribbed from a panel discussion that featured five conference speakers.  The stock has taken off in the last two weeks, but not sufficiently to generate a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart.  The daily, however, is more encouraging (see inset), and even offers a very subtle look-to-the-left peak that we might use to get long.  It lies at 11.64, and leveraging it later may be less risky than trying to get aboard now, given the stock's manic surge from around $10 a share. ______ UPDATE (January 22 at 12:57 a.m. EST):  The stock has gone ballistic (see inset), with a moon-shot high so far at 12.920. If you caught a ride -- there was an entry trigger at 11.40 on the daily chart just before the stock took off -- please let me know in the chat room and I'll provide tracking guidance if more two or more fills are reported.  ________ UPDATE (March 4): The stock has taken a brutal hit, falling  from $13 to $10+ in the last two weeks (see inset).  We'll wait for a conventional buy signal to get aboard, so stay tuned via the chat room and 'E-mail Notifications" (available on your My Account page).  ______ UPDATE (April 8):  We'll back away from this stock, since its ultraviolent swings can be traded only by paying obsessive attention to the very lesser charts.

The March contract looked poised Sunday night to make another downpayment on the 1494.50 target that was more or less guaranteed here a while back, even when this vehicle was falling. Shortly after midnight EST, buyers had pushed above the 1470.25 midpoint associated with a 1478.00 rally target. Camouflageurs should look for entry opportunities on the 5-minute chart or less, but I'd recommend doing so only after a bearish feint, since buyers seemed to be waiting for "news" to move the market higher.