Wednesday, January 16, 2013

I am tracking a single contract whose cost basis has effectively been lowered to 1433.50 by partial-profit-taking on three additional contracts held initially. Since we're shooting for a 1494.50 target that has been drum-rolled here for a while, there is good reason to be aggressive by using a generous trailing stop. My suggestion is to plan a 1452.25 exit, based on the 'external' low highlighted in the chart. We'll raise it if the futures take out recent highs near 1472.00, but I'll need to see what the hourly chart looks like at that point in order to extrapolate an impulse-leg stop from it.  I'll post the stop as an update in the chat room, but if you want to be notified in real time by e-mail make sure you've enabled the 'E-Mail Notifications' feature on your My Account page.  _______ UPDATE (January 16 at 6:07 p.m. EST):  Following yesterday's hokeypokey price action, we continue to hold a single contract tied to the risk management criteria spelled out above.  ______ UPDATE (January 17 at 10:06 p.m EST):  We have a theoretical profit of $2000 in our position at current prices, but there's $1000 more to be extracted if and when the futures reach our longstanding target at 1494.50.  For now, we'll maintain a generous fixed stop at 1456.25, where the hourly chart would turn bearishly impulsive.  In the meantime, I see little risk until buyers encounter 1481.75, a Hidden Pivot unmentioned until now that could show sufficient stopping power to terminate the rally.  When we get there, we'll want to tighten up with an impulse leg-based stop-loss using, perhaps, the 5-minute chart.  Stay tuned, since I'll post explicit details here via an update, in the chat room, and by e-mail notification to those of you who have enabled it on your

Rick expects gold to remain rangebound between $1580 and $1800 in 2013, but that could change in a blink if Comex futures were to hit either of two specific thresholds in the coming months. During this 60-minute discourse, sponsored by GoldSeek.com, he takes a finely nuanced technical look at gold futures, the Dollar Index, and such popular investment vehicles as GDX/GDXJ, Goldcorp, Newmont, Allied Nevada, Timmins and GORO. His conclusions should be helpful to timers, traders and investors looking to avoid the potentially treacherous shoals of these all-too-interesting times.