Yesterday's rebound in this vehicle was strong, although not quite as compelling as the one in Comex Gold futures. Moreover, the intraday low exceeded the midpoint support of the pattern shown by a decisive 52 cents, shortening the odds that its 'D' sibling at 22.25 will eventually be reached. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt nonetheless, since mining shares are unlikely to languish if they catch their first whiff of strength in bullion in many months. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, this vehicle needs to keep running without taking a breath until 29.83 (a 5/14 peak) has been exceeded. Camouflageurs should look for entry opportunities on the 15-minute chart, since there are some choice 'externals' to be found therein. ______ UPDATE (May 23, 12:33 a.m. EDT): The breath that GDX could not afford to take has in fact been taken, casting at least mild doubt on a bullish outcome. Worse than drawing a breath, actually, GDX sucker-punched bulls on the opening bar. _______ UPDATE (June 3): Last week's modest rally failed to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, but it wouldn't take much to achieve this. Specifically, GDX will need to hit a minimum 30.97 this week to get the job done. If it pulls back from a high thereafter without having surpassed 31.27, camouflageurs should use the retracement to get long.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
A Turning Point for Gold?
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksYesterday's reversal in gold was the most promising price action we've seen in a long while. For a detailed technical explanation of what it may portend, and timely instructions for trading it, check out today's tout and the chart that accompanies it. I will also be stepping up coverage of other bullion-related vehicles that have been almost too depressing to watch. If you want a peek but don't subscribe, consider taking a risk-free trial subscription to Rick's Picks.
GCM13 – June Gold (Last:1387.70)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksListen up, since, technically speaking, something important happened yesterday in Gold. For one, the futures reversed sharply with the broad averages falling. When was the last time that occurred? Even more significant from our perspective is that the reversal created a bullish impulse leg on the not-exactly-chopped-liver 180-minute chart (see inset). From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, this is the most positive sign we've seen in gold since a similar rally, one that ultimately failed, occurred in late February. While it is true that the rally has launched from a too-obvious place, just above mid-April's savagely oversold 1321 bottom, that doesn't necessarily make it meaningless or a tease. In fact, it will allow us to set aside, at least for the time being, two worrisome correction targets that I've been drum-rolling at, respectively, 1218.60 and 1190.40. Realize that no matter how accurately we can sometimes predict key highs and lows, we never pretend to have a crystal ball. Rather, we simply take what the charts give us and interpret the action with coldly mechanical detachment. In that regard, it is fair to say that the bullishly impulsive move now unfolding on the 180-minute chart has the potential to end gold's long bear market. At the very least, it implies the beginning of a rally that could carry into summer. Our confidence about this would naturally increase if the first ABCD rally pattern to unfold blows past the still-undetermined midpoint pivot with the greatest of ease. For traders, initiating a long position should come most easily at the 'x' entry point of the big pattern; or for those eager to get aboard as early as possible, at the p or D Hidden Pivot of the retracement leg. We'll be using camouflage to do so in either case, of course, since using the
