Wednesday, December 11, 2013

You need to zoom down to the 10-minute chart before you find a  pattern that can be bought. The one shown looks promising nonetheless, with an entry trigger at 565.66 that was tripped about halfway into Tuesday's session. Entry should be done using camouflage, with an eye on the 570.56 target.  The fact that the rally has not yet breached the 567.29 midpoint resistance will make the buy-side opportunity somewhat more risky at the moment. ______ UPDATE (December 11 at 7:06 p.m. EST): What a huge surprise: On the opening bar, DaBoyz gapped the stock almost exactly to our target before pulling the plug.  The ensuing bloodbath shaved $12 from the price of AAPL shares, and even lower prices looked likely. Specifically, you should use the 555.36 target shown as a minimum downside objective. It can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can handle. Note: If you got short at yesterday's high, go to the head of the class. _______ UPDATE (December 16, 12:01 a.m. EST): Apple sliced through the 555.36 support, telegraphing even lower prices to come. Now, watch the stock fall to 548.42 if it takes out the 552.96 midpoint pivot associated with that 'd' target.  Both of those numbers, but especially the lower, can be bottom-fished with as tight a stop-loss as you can handle. Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (December 18 at 10:25 p.m.): Yesterday's devastation obliterated the 548.42 pivot that had served as our minimum downside target. However, the selloff did not come even remotely close to generating a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart; that would take a print at 513.66 or lower.

With virtually everyone apparently eager for the Santa rally to commence, the stock market has only grown increasingly constipated and agitated. I expected this condition to make it difficult for the E-Mini futures to achieve even the modest target at 1814.25 proffered here yesterday.  What surprised was that when the rally failed to materialize, the ensuing selloff was not even strong enough to achieve an equally modest downside target at 1799.00.  Under the circumstances, only the nimblest traders should be mixing it up with the E-Mini crowd right now.

Yesterday's strong rally failed by a whisker to hit my bullish benchmark at 1268.10.  That would have generated a very encouraging 'impulse leg' on the hourly chart; alas, the actual high occurred at 1267.50, a mere 60 cents shy of a ballistic triumph. Now, although I expect the futures to get past 1268.00, the implication of their needing another running start at it is less bullish than if the resistance had been conquered on the first try. Even so, we should guard against being overly skeptical merely because every rally we've seen in recent months has fizzled. This one is to be traded with a bullish bias for now, and camouflageurs should use the 15-minute chart for ideas. As of this moment, a minor impulsive breakout would be signaled by a print at 1266.10 (see small inset), and a short pullback from just above that number would make for an enticing trade.