Several bullish uptrends of varying degree are driving this rally, favoring bullish bets over the near term. Yesterday's upside penetration of the 4.640 midpoint resistance shown was sufficient to tip the odds in favor of a continuation to at least 4.790, a Hidden Pivot target associated with the midpoint pivot. If you're looking for a way in, I'd suggest using uptrending patterns on the 5-minute chart or less. Yesterday, during a 'co-op' trading-room session, we found a very low-risk entry opportunity on the 15-second bar chart. The rally failed, but there was nevertheless a profit to be had by trading what little upside followed the pattern's minor entry signal. ______ UPDATE (11:45 p.m.): The futures recovered sharply from yesterday's whipsaw low, so the 4.790 rally target still looks great. _______ UPDATE (June 10, 12:56 a.m.): Despite yesterday's sell-off on a bull-trap opening, the 4.790 target will remain viable unless the point 'C' low at 4.489 (5/30) is exceeded to the downside. If you want to trade with a bullish bias, I'd suggested doing so using an ABC-type rally that has exceeded the 4.640 midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (June 11, 9:35 p.m.): This week's steep retreat from a 4.743 high that fell a tad shy of our target is short-term bearish. A bigger picture still yields a bullish target at 4.881, provided this correction goes no lower than 4.297. _______ UPDATE (June 12, 6:50 p.m.): The futures have trampolined off a 4.504 low recorded on Wednesday and appear bound for 4.883 (see inset), two ticks above the original target.The best 'easy' buying opportunity I could foresee would come on a pullback to the 4.694 midpoint pivot. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 2:03 a.m. ET): A fleeting spike Sunday evening pushed this vehicle to a peak at 4.886 -- 0.003 points from the
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1917.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThis little troublemaker spent yesterday mixing bobble-head jitters with Wall Street Kabuki, all mere inches shy of new record highs. Such behavior would only have compounded the consternation and frustration of traders who have been desperately looking for opportunity -- any opportunity -- to grab hold of. Traders who see themselves getting short at the stop can save their breath, however, since success could conceivably require the canny speculator to endure, for example, the most murderous Friday-afternoon short-squeeze ever, only to see stocks around the world take their initial plunge into well-deserved hell Sunday night. Since it's only Tuesday, however, I'm perforce obliged to offer a game plan that aspires to engage and occupy the restless among you until the beast comes to rest ahead of its Moloch sabbath. I'll therefore suggest hitching your wagon to the gnarly bullish pattern shown. It promises a rally to 1930.75, provided buyers turn giddy over some otherwise meaningless tidbit of news churned out by the Ministry of Spin. Not to say it can't happen, but nothing in the chart suggests to me that this trading vehicle is fixing to dive. That will come later in the week if at all. For now, though, and as always, it will be caveat emptor. _______ UPDATE (9:04 a.m. ET): This vehicle 'overcorrected' overnight, exceeding the 1918.00 'D' target (60-min) of a=1923.50 (5:15 p.m.) Now it is potentially shortable via the developing pattern a=1920.50 (7:00 a.m.); b= 1916.00 (9 a.m.); c=still undetermined. Should it pan out with an entry signal, the short will be somewhat less enticing if it occurs within 10 minutes of the opening bell. Click here for a free two-week trial to Rick's Picks -- no credit card necessary.
Apple Could Fly if Broad Averages Help
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksThe S&Ps look poised to surge at Tuesday's close even though they had spent most of the day merely treading water. I've sketched out a rally pattern in today's E-mini tout that projects a move that would be equivalent to about 100 Dow points. If this happens and Apple leads the charge, it could provide an excellent opportunity to take some profits on a butterfly spread that we pegged to a 660.26 rally target. The stock closed on Tuesday at 638.00, up more than $9 on the day. **** Ominous Sign as Each New Rally Disappoints [This commentary has drawn strong interest from the Twitter crowd, so I'm letting it ride. RA] To hold a long position in a hot stock, as we currently do in AAPL, is to become increasingly aware that each new rally has been little more than a tease, never quite living up to the patient bull's hopes. Looking at the stock market as a whole, recent rallies have pushed marginally into record territory, only to recede so swiftly as to cast serious doubt on the bull market's health. My very strong feeling, verging on certitude, is that the stock market is making a broad top -- setting the hook, as it were, for bulls. If I had to cite just one piece of evidence to make the case, it would be the screaming divergence between Treasury debt and stocks. With a rally that has been as unexpected as it has been powerful, T-Bond futures are acting as though the U.S. economy is about to slip back into deep recession. Stocks, on the other hand, are trading near record highs, cheered on by the likes of the Wall Street Journal and Forbes despite mounting evidence that The Great Recession is not only still with us, but
