Monday, June 16, 2014

The futures popped through the 1277.90 midpoint resistance shown Sunday evening, implying there's enough juice to carry them to the pivot's D-target sibling at 1284.90.  As always, an easy move through that Hidden Pivot would imply that more upside awaits.  Notice that there's a slightly higher B-C pairing that could alter the outlook. The target thereof is 1287.40.

Crude and gold have opened higher Sunday evening, albeit only moderately, and index futures are off a tad. These trends could steepen if events in Iraq take a turn for the even worse. For now, though, it appears that Wall Street is facing the Wall of Worry with the usual pixie dust and irrepressibly stupid smile.

It's not a healthy sign that the buying binge begun on May 20 couldn't quite reach the 169.95 target shown.  Still, because the subsequent decline has yet to take out any significant lows, we'll need to give our grudging respect to this aging and possibly enfeebled bull.  I'll signal any shorting opportunities in the chat room and via email (to those who have signed up for email notification on their Account page). In the meantime, however, we should remain alert to any bullish trading possibilities, since our success at exploiting them can provide the extra cushion we need to get short fearlessly at new-record and swing highs.

These all-too-interesting times are threatening to mutate into global mayhem. Because the usual 500-word commentary cannot begin to cover it all, let me list just a few of the things that we should all find troubling domestically and abroad: • The subjugation of Iraq by jihadi madmen so deranged, cruel and violent that even al Qaeda considers them outcasts is about to radically reshape the geopolitical world. They now control territory from Aleppo in northwestern Syria to Fallujah in central Iraq and are fixing to extend their dominion – and a re-nascent Caliphate -- to Baghdad. We should wish Iranian troops well in killing as many of them as possible. • Whatever develops in Iraq, energy prices are poised to take a leap that could easily tip the developed world back into deepest, darkest recession. My technical forecast has been calling for $119-a-barrel crude, but that may prove to be just the booster stage of a much bigger rally. • Under the breathtakingly inept leadership of Barack Obama, whose competence never rose above the demands of neighborhood rabble-rouser, America’s withdrawal from the world’s trouble spots threatens to end the Pax Americana that deepened its roots, if only briefly, following the demolition of the Berlin Wall. • Question to the State Department, Western Europe, the neo-Nazi right and the American left: Do you still believe that Israel is the main cause of the world’s problems? For a dose of reality, read this prescient 1992 article by Angelo M. Codevilla in Middle East Quarterly. • Waiting in the wings to make things worse is Hillary Clinton, as sinister as Obama is inept. The faked smile that hides her take-no-prisoners ruthlessness reminds me of the murderously ambitious Angela Lansbury character in The Manchurian Candidate. • However the White House tries to spin the