Tuesday, July 15, 2014

The modest bounce at the rightmost edge of the chart came off a low that fell within 11 cents of a clear 100.35 target (see inset). The bounce was worth as much as $850 per contract to any trader who got long at the low. Since we typically allow 21 cents of leeway when using Hidden Pivot targets in this vehicle, a bid at the pivot would easily have survived a very tight, mechanically determined stop-loss.

The 3960.50 rally target shown is equivalent to the one at 1987.25 flagged in tonight's E-Mini S&P tout.  Because the Naz is trading in record-high territory, however, there are no 'hooks' for camouflage trading in the form of external peaks to the left. The target looks like a good one nonetheless, and it can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. If you fill the order please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:33 p.m. EDT):  The futures have overshot the target by about 30 points. This has bullish implications going forward, but for now this vehicle is in correction mode.  The top will become more significant if corrective abc patterns of minor degree start overshooting their targets.

A chat room denizen seemed concerned that PCLN was getting sacked Monday in after-hours trading.  As you can see, however, the shakedown -- and that's what it is -- has not even broken the bulllish trendline from mid-June's low.  (Note: the green bars represent after-hours price action.)  This evening's so-far low represents a $13.50 discount off Monday's settlement price, but it's possible the dirtballs who created this air pocket have even more ambitious theft in mind.  If this proves to be the case, look to do your bottom-fishing at the 1189.93 target shown. I've set an alert myself, since the target may provide an opportunity to leg into a vertical bull call spread if the stock bounces from the pivot as we might expect. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 12:07 a.m. EDT):  The 1189.93 target remains viable in theory, but it must be noted that bears struggled too hard yesterday trying to take this wind-bag lower,  even after DaBoyz had sandbagged bulls on a revved up opening bar. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:12 p.m.): The nasty head-fake on the  opening bar was bullishly impulsive nonetheless, so traders should use this pattern on the 60-minute chart to project a follow-through rally target: A=1219.16 on July 15 at 11:30 a.m.: B= 1243.26 on July 16 at 10:30 a.m.; C=still undetermined, but tentatively 1223.00; a move below 1219.16 would negate the pattern. Alternatively, a move lower could evince a tradable bounce from 1218.02, the midpoint support, on the hourly chart, of A=1258.66 on 7/7._______ UPDATE (July 18 3:02 a.m.) Wednesday's very nasty head-fake altered our point 'C', raising the correction target to 1192.77.  This Hidden Pivot may prove useful for setting up a 'jackpot' trade using expiring options.

Yesterday's thrust through the 1966.25 midpoint resistance shown (red line) implies the uptrend will continue over the next day or two to at least 1987.25.  The rally is too far along for us to jump aboard easily for an implied 15-point ride, but if you're a night owl looking for action, try zooming down to the 15-minute chart in search of camouflage opportunities.  If they exist, they'll be found in the form of small peaks along the path of the decline that occurred on July 6-7.  If you'd rather short into the rally, an initial stop-loss of 1.00 point, at 1988.25, is suggested. _________ UPDATE (July 16, 12:03 a.m. EDT): Zzzzzzzzzz. No change. _______ UPDATE (6:18 p.m.): What an awful mess yesterday was!  Besides the 1987.25 target we're shooting for, there's a lesser Hidden Pivot resistance at 1982.00 that comes from these coordinates on thee hourly chart: A=1953.00 on July 11 at 10 a.m.; B=1976.25 on July 15.  This was identified by a chat-roomer yesterday, and it looks good enough to foster a tradable pullback for day-traders. _______ UPDATE (July 18, 3:05 a.m.): The futures plummeted yesterday from a bull-trap high at 1976.00 that got nowhere near our 1982.00 pivot. Now, use A=1970.50 (60-minute, July 14 at 2:00 p.m.) to project lower lows.