Tuesday's stall precisely at the 1204.60 midpoint pivot shown implies that December Gold will achieve q minimum 1228.40 if and when it pushes past the resistance. You should trade with a bullish bias for now, using entry opportunities on the lesser charts to get aboard with reduced risk. The easiest trades lately have come from 'mechanical' entries. In this case, that would imply buying on a pullback to 1204.60 after it has been decisively exceeded to the upside. A stop-loss of $800 per contract would obtain at that point -- far in excess of what we would ordinarily abide. One way around it is to pick one's entry spots on ABC patterns of much smaller degree. Another would be the use of a timed buy-stop in the manner taught in the Hidden Pivot Webinar.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
A Key Threshold for the Broad Averages
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksIndex futures were subdued Tuesday night after coming within a hair of some key rally targets that I'd flagged here earlier. It will be no great surprise if they pull back from these levels, only to come roaring back with another crazed upthrust before the week is over. Even so, we've grown accustomed to treating each new record high as an opportunity to get short, especially when the high closely coincides with an important Hidden Pivot target. If you want to see how much higher the S&Ps could go if they decisively exceed this latest target, check out the E-Mini tout for today and the chart that accompanies it.
ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2044.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksDuring yesterday's impromptu session, I suggested shorting this vehicle at day's end, but only to those who were prepared to monitor the position overnight. The 2055.25 target was effectively reached with an intraday high at 2054.00. For all we know, this could be the ultimate top of the bull market begun in March 2009. It's equally possible, of course, that the futures could be bounding blithely higher by the time you read this. Were that to occur, I'd have to infer that the 2115.50 target shown is in play, implying yet another thousand points of upside for the Dow Industrials. This seems incredible to me, given that corporate earnings have begun to falter. Permabulls have been arguing for years that per-share earnings growth has justified the runaway bull, even if a significant piece of this growth has been bought by companies shrinking their floats via stock buybacks. In any case, and most immediately, if the moderate weakness in evidence Monday night starts to snowball, we'll look for a way to get short Tuesday on-the-fly. Stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (11:04 a.m.): Since I have reports from traders who got short yesterday, I am advising covering half of the position at current levels, tying what remains to a 2049.75 stop-loss. For purposes of tracking guidance, I will assume a short position of two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2068.00. _______ UPDATE (9:06 p.m.): Based on my instructions, traders should have exited on the spike to 2050.50 that occurred with two hours left in the session. The theoretical profit on the position would have been around $1750. If you stayed short, an 'impulsive' stop-loss for today would imply bailing out only if the futures surpass Tuesday's record-high 2054.00.
