GDXJ's ups and downs are in 'dueling' mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday's slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target -- in this case a hidden support at 27.21. Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications. ______ UPDATE (November 24, 1:54 a.m. EST): GDXJ finally budged by moving above 29.28, albeit a day later than we might have preferred. Now, if the rally holds above Friday's 28.42 low, a modest target at 30.43 will be in play -- would become an odds-on bet if and when this vehicle pushes decisively above the 29.43 midpoint resistance. _______ UPDATE (November 30, 10:57 p.m.): GDXJ was getting savaged Sunday night after Swiss voters rejected a measure that would have required the central bank to accumulate gold. The downtrend would become bearishly impulsive on the daily chart if it exceeds 23.86 (see inset, a new chart), but until such time as that happens, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Something to Lighten the Permabear’s Heart
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksNothing lightens the permabear's heart like a juicy rally target that dares us to short it. There's a major one coming up for the Dow Industrials, and the blue chip average could be there by week's end if the usual lunatics are out in force at Thursday's opening bell. Although we can't short the index itself, I've proffered a precisely comparable target for the Diamonds (DIA), along with instructions for buying puts at the appropriate time. If you're interested, check out this morning's tout for the DJIA.
DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksIt would take a mere 180-point rally to bring the Dow Industrial Average to the tantalizing, 17865 Hidden Pivot target shown. Odds will probably bend more favorably toward getting short there with a tight stop-loss than trying to get long for the ride up. However, I say that only because, permabear that I am, I am imagining the Indoos taking a very steep plunge without having achieved so obvious an objective. What I cannot imagine is buyers blowing past the target as though it were not there. Accordingly, traders looking to get short should use a corresponding target at 178.47 in DIA. Focus on out-of-the-money put options with 1-3 weeks left on them that can be bought for 0.60 or less. You should initiate this trade with DIA no more than 15 cents from the target, adjusting your bid so that it cuts the spread in half. _______ UPDATE (November 21, 9:51 a.m. EST): DIA popped to 178.60 this morning, but I'm still waiting to hear from subscribers who bought puts before I establish a tracking position.
GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1178.10)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksWhat a day! Although intraday highs and lows associated with the even wildest price action are more or less predictable, it is only the very nimble who should be trading them. Yesterday's histrionics don't merit an explanation, since any account that we or anyone else might offer would be based on little more than rumors. From a technical standpoint, the series of $25 swings left the December contract in a dive that we should expect to terminate at either of two Hidden Pivot supports: 1172.20, or perhaps 1169.80 if any lower. The second number is the more conservative spot to try bottom-fishing, using a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. Night owls who attempt it should be aware that an easy overshoot of the lower pivot would likely augur a test of the 1146.00 low whence last Friday's powerful surge took off.
