Monday, January 26, 2015

The futures are banging on a 44.12 Hidden Pivot support that they last visited on January 13. We won't presume as to whether the support will hold this time around, but if it gives way the 41.00 target of a lesser downtrend (see inset) would be in play. Traders will have to sort out the opportunities in real time, but I'd suggest using a chart of 5-minute degree or less to generate an actionable 'camouflage' pattern. If you prefer the simpler method of a 'mechanical' entry, a short from 46.36 can be used, stop 48.15.  This is significantly more risk that we are used to taking when trading this vehicle, since swing highs and lows on the very lesser charts can usually be predicted with 10 to 20 cents.  Under the circumstances, I'd suggest holding position size down to a single contract unless you use 'camouflage'. _______ UPDATE (1:42 p.m.): Just posted in the chat room: The recent high at 46.41 was bullishly impulsive, so shorts initiated at 46.36 as I'd advised should be tied to a short tether -- i.e., a stop-loss that will leave you with at least a small profit no matter what. If you are short multiple contracts, half should be covered here for around 45.69, for a gain of about $670 per contract. If you prefer an impulsive stop, the 3-minute chart would pop you out of the trade on an uncorrected rally exceeding 46.14. _______ UPDATE (11:34 p.m.): The futures have plummeted $1.41 from within a nickel of where I'd suggested getting short.  The trade could have been worth as much $1360 per contract, but if you still hold a position I'll recommend tying it to an impulsive stop-loss on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply stopping yourself out of the

Index futures are down the equivalent of 100 Dow points Sunday evening on news that Greece's leftist lunatic fringe has voted itself into power.  We should wish the victors rotsa ruck exploiting whatever spoils they've deluded themselves into thinking they've won. Meanwhile, just as one would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh on reading of the death of Little Nell, one would have to have a brain of tapioca to think an election in Athens will trouble Wall Street for long.  By noon Monday, Sunday night's selloff will look like the brazen shakedown of dumb money that it is. This is notwithstanding the fact that European markets have not exactly taken the news in stride.

The futures topped early and sold off hard Friday, but not before they'd peaked decisively above some minor rally targets I'd flagged. This means the short squeeze that powered the rally is likely to get second wind, with enough power to push this hoax up to a 2096.00 Hidden Pivot target mentioned here earlier. Night owls can use the 2041.00 correction target shown to attempt bottom-fishing, but because Friday's close was right on top of it, the pivot may not survive the resumption of trading Sunday evening. Under the circumstances, I'd suggest looking for the turn, and crafting an entry opportunity, on charts of 5-minute degree or less. This 'camouflage' trick may have lost its potency during the regular session, but it just might work in thin trading on a Sunday night. _______ UPDATE (10:41 p.m. EST): The futures are down the equivalent of 100 Dow points, trailing Euromarkets that have plummeted on news that political power in Greece has swung to the lunatic left.  The weakness of European stocks is understandable, but don't be fooled by the sympathetic reaction in the U.S., since the selling has been contrived to part widows and pensioners from their shares at distress prices.

Baby Boomers should be rooting with all their might for the repeal of Obamacare, since it’s going to be Medicaid for everyone if the widely despised law is allowed to become entrenched. Medicaid was designed for the poor and provides reimbursement rates so low that many doctors have come to shun Medicaid patients.  They are going to start shunning Medicare patients as well, since an implicit goal of the Affordable Care Act is to squeeze physician and hospital payments down to Medicaid levels. As this change takes place, the healthcare system in general will increasingly resemble its Medicaid poor cousin, with the following consequences: Doctors will become increasingly choosy about whom they accept as patients. Concierge care will divide the patient population into haves and have-nots. We’ll all wait much longer to see a specialist. Certain procedures, such as hip and knee replacements and bypass surgeries, will become drastically rationed. New doctors will be in critically short supply, since medicine as practiced under ruthlessly intrusive Government control has already stopped attracting the best and brightest students. Why would they want to spend half their lives training for a job, and going hundreds of thousands of dollars into hock, just to work for The Government? Hospitals, on the other hand, are loving Obamacare, since it has turned their emergency rooms into profit centers where every patient that comes in the door is guaranteed to have a ‘sponsor.’ A predictable result is that emergency rooms, particularly in urban hospital, will become increasingly crowded and crazy. Doctors and physician groups that have signed on with hospitals will discover they’ve made a deal with the devil. While this may have helped them claw back some of the pay they lost when The Government arbitrarily cut reimbursements to private practitioners, the hospitals will eventually be