CLZ11

The 99.60 target drum-rolled here earlier still looks like it can't miss, notwithstanding occasional, freakish bouts of histrionics such as we witnessed yesterday. Because any potential rally top so close to $100 is not likely to be underwatched or undertraded, we'll need to use 'camouflage' tactics deftly to get aboard a southbound express, should one materialize. Accordingly, I'll suggest setting a screen alert at 98.80 to warn when the opportunity is getting close. I've done so myself and will signal the trade in the chat room if possible. _______ UPDATE (Sunday, November 13, 10:20 p.m. EST): The futures have pulled back nearly $1.00 after topping this evening 9 cents above our 99.60 target. None of the feints lower so far have produced a legitimate, bearish impulse leg even on the 5-minute chart, but that's where I'll suggest looking if you're eager to get aboard via 'camouflage.'  Note: If you simply shorted my target with a stop-loss of at least 10 cents, I'd suggest using taking profits on half the position and tying the rest to a tight, 99.27 stop-loss.

December Crude's 99.60 rally target (see inset) looks like a lock-up to me --  a pity, perhaps, since prices at the pump have been uncharacteristically soft recently but are bound to surge with a vengeance when the headlines shriek yet once more about $100-a-barrel oil.  Hawk-eyed Pivoteers might notice in the chart that although the rally has proceeded with little trepidation, there were numerous instances where impulsive thrusts followed the creation of second point 'C' lows.  To leverage this propensity, I'd suggest attempting entry on each second 'x' entry signal generated on the hourly chart. This is a tactic I've never recommended before, at least not in the context of a trading tout, but it would appear to suit the behavior of this predictable but always-nasty vehicle.

Crude has rallied nearly 15 percent off early October's lows, implying that the easing of gasoline prices in recent weeks may have run its course. That will probably hold true even if crude turns weak again, since oil prices always seem to rise much more easily than they fall. Regarding the intermediate-term trend, a clear signal looks imminent, since the December futures will either correct here in b-c fashion (see inset) or get second wind for a push above the September 27 high at 85.00.  The latter scenario would create a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart -- the first such bullish sign since August 31.

Yeah, I know you depend on me to not play hunches, but I can't shake the gut feeling that this rally is just a dead-cat bounce.  In any case, to reckon the odds in the coldly mechanical way that is our forte, we should remain skeptical unless the crime syndicate that is behind this squeeze can push the December contract, without taking a breather, above the 88.24 peak labeled in the chart.  This is shown hypothetically in the chart.

With a swift plunge of more than $10, December Crude has crushed the $78.60 midpoint support of a target I gave here a while back, bringing into focus its 'D' sibling at 66.25 (see inset). That is now our minimum downside objective, but the case would become even stronger if the futures return to 78.60 in the days ahead.  A secondary target at 68.21 should be considered and , like the higher number, be used to bottom-fish. It comes from the one-off  'A' at 99.77, but if it were to be exceeded by as little as 60 cents, 66.25 would be in play.  There is also a minor target at 70.67 shown in the chart, and it too could foster a tradable bounce. _______ UPDATE (October 4): The futures have indeed rallied to 78.60 -- exactly -- affirming the accuracy of the more important downside target at 66.25.  If and when the December contract gets down there, we should be prepared to bottom-fish aggressively. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (October 5, 7:30 p.m.):  The futures eventually moved higher, but the 66.25 target should still be considered affirmed.  For now, though, will have to wait and see if the rally flies or dies. My hunch is that it's a hoax.

December Crude looks poised for a $10 fall to 78.60, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support that we can use as a minimum downside objective for the near term.  If and when the futures get there, we'll want to bottom-fish the prospective turn aggressively.

The near miss of the rally target shown in the chart suggests Crude might be ripe for shorting, although for once I'll leave the challenging task of camo-ing your way aboard to you.  There was a southbound impulse leg developing on the 15-minute chart as we went to press, but it was stumbling at the midpoint support, perhaps hinting of a bullish feint.

Crude's airless tedium during the last three weeks has somehow produced a pattern of unexpected clarity.  Moreover, because the futures have decisively exceeded the 85.56 midpoint of the pattern shown more upside to its 'D' sibling is 90.96.  There are many ways to trade this forecast, but you'll need to do the improvising yourself in real time.