Wall Street evidently sees the war as little more than an annoyance, something to be gotten over as quickly as possible so that the monkeys who are paid to throw Other People's Money at stocks can get back to business as usual. Their main impediment at the moment is Trump-deranged media coverage that is rooting so hard against Trump that they are practically cheering on Iran. Bloomberg, the New York Times and the Washington Post et al. could almost make you believe that Iran, without a Navy, can mine the Strait of Hormuz under the watchful eye of the most sophisticated minesweeper fleet on the planet. In the meantime, the news media's relentless barrage of discouragements has made it extremely difficult for the chimps and prop desk whizzes to trigger off the kind of short-squeeze leaps that could push the broad averages to new record highs in mere days. And so they continue to bide their time, waiting for cheerier headlines. Although the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&Ps have shown little life this year, neither have they shown much weakness. In any event, investors are certain to remain obsessed with oil prices until quotes recede from the $100 threshold, and until the talking heads concede that the current price dislocations are not likely to be permanent. In the meantime, this is no bear market, just a perpetual-motion money machine waiting to lurch wildly back into gear. Oh, right, a price target: The futures look southbound most immediately for 6452.75, and a rally to the green line (x=6752.19) would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 6852.25. It is recommended only to subscribers who know how to cut the $5000 risk per contract to $250 or less, and it is most definitely NOT recommended to Nick. Here's a link to my latest rant
Yet another punk Friday suggests that the longest bull market in history is running out of gas. Considering that the war with Iran is a mop-up operation at this point, and that global jihad has suffered an extraordinary setback, the stock market should be celebrating. Instead, the S&P mini-futures couldn't even muster the last dozen or so points to reach a 6911.50 rally target I'd considered a lock-up. The futures could have returned to the green line (x=6766.94) for a running start and another try; instead, they kept falling, canceling an ostensibly bullish pattern with a dip beneath its point 'c' low at 6718.75, just ahead of the opening bell. To complete this picture of feebleness, buyers went nowhere on Friday, even unburdened of bulls who were stopped out with the gratuitous dip beneath 6718.75. Now all DaBoyz can do is wait for "news" conducive to a short squeeze, which, as I never tire of reminding you, is where nearly all of the serious buying power comes from in bull markets. But if a decisive victory against the chief agent of evil in this world is not enough to spark such a rally, then what is? Instead, the focus of the hacks who invent the news is on the disruption of oil markets. It has been years since Wall Street much cared about events in the real world, much less a mostly imagined problem with oil shipments in the Persian Gulf (as evidenced by Israel's resumption of commercial air flights.) The Masters of the Universe should be looking past this, toward the resumption of business as usual. And yet, their dim lackeys in the news media seem crestfallen over Iran's impending defeat. (Tune to CNN for 30 minutes if you don't believe this.) Something is wrong with this picture, and
'Mechanical ' sell signals have a great track record for producing profits, but the waiting time lately has become tortuous. This could be because the white-shoe racketeers who rig the markets have lacked sufficient "news," good or bad, to trigger the wild swings needed to steal from panicky retail investors. Trump's bloviations have lost their punch, and Fed-watching has devolved into something like Kremlinology, too arcane to parse. Be that as it may, the futures remain on-target for a further fall to at least 6720.00. I canceled a corresponding short in QQQ Friday on the hunch that it would take hours to grind out a relatively small profit. That is what happened, and don't be surprised if Monday and the week ahead offer more of the same. The big moves have come early in the week lately, presumably because it takes a few days for lack of mass indecision and uncertainty to slip into its by-now-familiar rut. _______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 3:59 pm.): Do you see the 6720.00 target boldfaced above? It not only correctly and confidently predicted the trend and the nasty, 155-point plunge that followed, it also caught the low of the dive within 1.75 points. Only two subscribers appear to have noticed any of this, and one of them, a novice with an extremely erratic track record, caught a profitable ride worth $3000 from within a hair of the low. If you got long there yourself and rode it to the top, the trade would have produced an intraday gain of $6500 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5) Bears turned gutless after pounding the futures overnight. The resulting short-squeeze looked like it would top at 6911.50 to end yet another week of gratuitous spasms.
Friday's tedium was murderous, although the half-dozen-or-so trades that I posted in the chat room, most of which went against the trend, were all winners. (Check the time stamps if you want to retro-engineer my tactics on the lesser charts.) Choppy action in this vehicle consumed the entire week, but it did not change the likelihood of a corrective decline to at least 6720.00, a Hidden Pivot target that should be familiar by now. A feint to the green line (x=6938.75) would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 7012.00, but I am recommending it only to subscribers who know how to counterpunch the little sonofabitch.
From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the only thing of interest that occurred in this vehicle last week is that it failed by 11.50 points to hit a juicy target at 7023.00 that I'd advertised. We were therefore unable to get off an opportune short, not because the target was front-run, but because the gratuitous daily blips that have been passing for rallies lately were too weak to reach it. A logical conclusion is that the clueless meandering within the channel shown is starting to break down, and that the two recent breaches of the lower line might be significant. I promised to be sparing in my use of the words 'topping process', but that 's what we are lookng at, it would seem, and it has become almost too tedious to watch. However, since I always try to leave you with a price target no matter how muddled the price action, I'll proffer a bearish one at 6748.00. which comes from conventional A=7027.25 on Feb 3. It can be traded despite the pattern's obviousness, but I'll recommend it only to those of you who know how to execute a CI (counterintuitive) entry.
The chart leaves no doubt that this short-squeeze rally will reach the 7023.00 target. Friday's move impaled the midpoint resistance (p=6887.25), then went on to poke a hole through p2=6955.13 and close within a hair of it. Is this sufficient power to produce the bullish breakout investors have awaited since the Halloween top just above 7000? Probably. Although d=7023.00 will still be worth shorting, you should do so with a delicate 'reverse pattern' trigger that risks no more than 3.00 or so points per contract. In the meantime, bull trades will likely enjoy safe passage at least to 'd'.
The futures served up such a steaming bucket of slop on Friday that I've projected more of the same as the new week begins. The slop was enough, however, for anyone who followed my post at 8:53 to begin the day with a profit sufficient to cushion whatever else the session's feeble price action brought. Although bulls and bears fought to a draw, I've shaded my bias toward the latter with the 6839.25 target shown. Don't expect the trip there to be as smooth and straightforward as the dotted line I've drawn on the chart.
The mindless herd breathed a collective sigh of relief over the tariff tizzy's latest cliffhanger, celebrating its resolution with a short squeeze up their own wazoos that played out mostly on a single day, Wednesday. The spree left the futures just shy of a 6984.00 target that is nothing special, although its decisive breach would suggest a possible breakout above the range that has asphyxiated the S&Ps since Halloween. More likely is a drop back into the valley, whose floor lies as much as 1400 points below. The 6984.00 target is shortable, but you could also attempt a ride to it, since it is all but certain to be reached. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:28 p.m.): ES is breaking out, as painful as it is for me to believe. See my comments in the chat room.
The futures were on a 'mechanical' sell signal to D=6925.25 when the week ended. It came in the final hour of the session, well after the trade was triggered 'conventionally' on the way down on Thursday afternoon. Price action continued a lengthening string of Fridays so boring that a trader fixated on his screen could fall into a trance. We may not know for a few weeks or longer whether this has been topping action or alternatively a consolidation for a run at higher prices. In any event, I wouldn't suggest bottom-fishing at the target of the pattern shown, since it is compromised by a coincident low on Wednesday that is bound to attract a thousand clowns. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 12:40 a.m.): Sellers went bananas over more Trump tariff bullshit, sending the futures down to 6911.00 so far. That's 2.0 points from the 6909.00 target I billboarded in the chat room last Tuesday as a back-up-the-truck number. It still is, provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger on the hourly chart. The tactic is explained in detail in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available free to subscribers. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 10:10 a.m.): Sellers crushed the 6909.00 support, putting the futures on course for a rendezvous with 6819.75 or worse. In theory, 6869 has triggered a 'mechanical' buy and would be the second signaled at the green line of a bullish pattern that projects to 7163 (60-min, A=6596 on Nov 21). That pattern would be wrecked, however, and stopped out, with a print at 6771.00.
Since nothing seems to slow this beast down, I've used the 'D' target of a pattern stretching back to mid-November to project minimum upside to 7163.25 over the near term. Although bulls did not penetrate its p midpoint decisively in their first two attempts, they've shown irresistible power for so long that we have to assume that any rally target will be achieved. Even so, this one is sufficiently compelling that there is likely to be tradeable resistance there. Short it with a small-interval (i.e., 'camo') trigger, but be prepared to cover at least a portion for a small profit.
