Gold

Gold is showing rather more pluck than Silver at the moment, having failed correctively to even reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 4586.20, let alone decisively exceed it as Silver has. The latter's more punitive correction is undoubtedly related to its singular nuttiness in recent years. The seeming divergence will almost surely be resolved in the week ahead, and I lean toward a bullish outcome. The point 'C' high at 5113.90 does not look capable of putting up a fight, and gold showed every sign on Friday of its eagerness to test C's mettle. The only hint of trouble is that the B-C leg of this pattern did not generate a fresh impulse leg with the 5113.90 top.  In any event, we'll need to wait and see how things play out over the next couple of days before assuming new record highs are coming.

Can Gold correct the monster, 1660-point rally since October in mere days? It seems doubtful, but we'll be monitoring the 4588.30 target in the chart closely nevertheless, in case it creates a bottom-fishing opportunity.  That Fibonacci-based number would represent a 62.5% retracement that overshot the 50% mark on Friday, a day after topping at 5626.80.  There is a small chance that the correction has seen its lows, since the 4713.90 closing price was just $2.20 from a downside target derived from a composite monthly chart that goes back to a notable top at 1920.70 recorded in September 2011. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 8:08 a.m.): This reverse pattern yields a clearer picture than the earlier one, which focused on the retracement without having the benefit of the robust rally that has occurred overnight.  The strong push through p=4725.20 has all but guaranteed the move will reach d=5027.10. It also makes a pullbback to the green line (x=4574.20) a good bet to produce a 'mechanical' profit of at least one level (i.e., $151).

Last week's tedious scuddle left the futures on-track for a run-up to at least 4347.30 over the near-term. This Hidden Pivot resistance is just a weigh station en route to the 4529.80 target of a much larger pattern given here earlier. The D target of that pattern is 5126.10, the first I've identified above $5k. I expect potentially tradable resistance at 4347.30, but if buyers punch through it easily, that would shorten the odds of an eventual move to the higher targets given above.

This is the first chart I've drawn that projects a gold price above $5000/oz. The pattern is probably too obvious to work precisely, but that won't negate its ability to keep us confidently on the right side of the trend. A theoretical buy signal has already been signaled with the thrusts through the green line (x=4234.40). However, we can't know how likely the 5126.10 target is to be achieved until we've seen buyers interacts with the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4529.79. For now, we can use it as a minimum upside projection. As always, a decisive move through p, and particularly a close above it, would shorten the odds of a continuation to D.

The 4001.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown perfectly caught the recent low, but if it gets decisively breached, that would open a path down to p2=3877.50, or even to D=3753.3. My bias is mildly bearish for the near term because the downtrend has been in force since before Halloween. Below 4001.70, the best chance bulls would have to turn things around would be at 3976.30, the d target of a smaller reverse pattern (or d=4011.30, basis February). Chances for an upturn there are good enough that I'll recommend bottom-fishing to subscribers who know how to craft a 'camouflage' trigger, a simple trick that I detailed in the chat room not long ago. (It also went out via email to everyone whose 'E-Mail Notifications' feature is checked in the account dashboard.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:35 p.m.): Assuming Feb Gold catches up to Jan Silver, the weekly chart (A=3234.00 on 5/16/25) implies more upside over the near term to at least 4529.70. A stall there would validate a pattern that projects to as high as 5126.10. 

Friday's carnage left the futures on track for a likely relapse to the 3976.20 target shown in the chart.  A bullish alternative would start with a rally exceeding Friday's intraday high at 4215.10. New record highs would become an odds-on bet at that height. Because the reverse pattern yielding the 3976.20 target, a Hidden Pivot support, is not obvious, bottom-fishing there is recommended. I'd suggest using a 'camo' trigger from a lesser intraday chart to do this, however, since there are several prior lows to the left that are likely to attract competition from overly eager buyers, some of whom are as clever as we are. ________ UPDATE (Nov 18, 10:29 p.m.): Buyers came back to life, giving the futures a possible reprieve. The uptrend projects to 4144.60, and a pullback to 4034.20 can be bought with a 3997.00 stop-loss. The rally will still need to exceed 4215.10 to tell us that bulls are ready for a charge to new record highs. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:03 a.m.): The futures have rallied as high as 4096 after lightly kissing the bid I'd suggested above at 4034.20 with a 4034.00 low. The subsequent rally could have produced a profit of more than $6000 per contract, but I have not established a tracking position because no one mentioned it in the chat room. The 4144.60 target has yet to be achieved, and the effort is not pretty to watch, but it remains valid nonetheless as a minimum objective.

I don't usually post charts that display more than a single ABCD pattern, but the one shown gives a clear picture of how very unclear gold traders and investors are at the moment. Neither the large bearish pattern nor the small bullish one produced a decisive move through p, muddying the question of whether the next significant move will be up or down. Bears have a slight edge, I'd say, but it's based on technical trivia that's not worth explaining. For now, the worst-case target if the futures break down is still 3802.60, representing a 5% drop on top of the 8.5% loss since October 20, when Gold recorded an all-time high at 4398. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 12:47 p.m. EST):  The futures have broken out above late October's peaks. Trust this rally when it pushes above more important peaks ranging up to 4175.00 recorded between Oct 22-26.

Bulls won last week's teeter-totter competition, but not by much. They held the line against sellers on Friday with a rally into the close that averted a fall to the red line (p=3932.60) after a theoretical sell signal was triggered. Now they will need to negate the bearish pattern by rallying above C=4059.90. If the effort fails, however, p would still be an enticing place to attempt bottom fishing with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger.  Price action there will also give us a reliable means of assessing trend strength, since a decisive breach of the 'hidden support' would imply that further slippage is likely. ________ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:50 a.m. EST): Gold has been spasming tediously sideways for eight days, but it looks ready to push above the 4059.90 top of the range to a 4068.00 Hidden Pivot target (30m, A=3934.20 on 10/29).  It will need to decisively exceed that resistance, however, to signal the possible resumption of the long-term bull market. A more critical, conventional resistance lies at 4175.00 in the form of a daunting series of peaks, the highest of which is 4175.00.  Bottom line: bulls have plenty of work to do to get back on track. If they fail, my worst-case correction target would be 3802.60.

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop