Gold

Despite Gold's labored price action near the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=4950.00), it looks like a certain bet to reach the d target at 5476.70, about 3.4% above Friday's settlement price. Since it delivered a perfect, effortless trade at the green line a month ago, there is a good chance that a tradeable top will occur at d. I am not recommending a short there, however, unless you have made money on the way up.  You should also be aware that if buyers blow past the target, the next logical objective would be 5732.00, a Hidden Pivot resistance that is likely to show more stopping power than the lower one.  ________ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:49 p.m.): Tonight's breakaway gap has raised the short-term minimum target to 5510.40, a Hidden Pivot with the potential to reverse the rally for a little while. The other rally targets remain viable. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7): The 5510.40 Hidden Pivot remains viable as a minimum upside objective for the near term, but you can add another at 5732.00 if buyers easily push past it. This chart shows the provenance of the target.

The bullish view of Gold (see inset) is somewhat different from the one shown in the current Silver tout. Both were on 'mechanical' sell signals, and that is what the latter chart was intended to visualize. However, this chart has taken the further step of extrapolating the next, likely rally leg. It projects to 5476.70, and while price action at the 4950.00 Hidden Pivot midpoint does not quite guarantee the target will be achieved, it's a reasonable bet as a minimum upside objective for the week ahead.  A stall at p2=5213.30, the secondary Hidden Pivot, would confirm that the pattern shown will continue to control Gold's movement until such time as 5476.70 is achieved.

Friday's moderate rally triggered a 'mechanical' short at 5033.50 that I am not recommending. The signal is a weak one because the bounce came off an intraday low that felt unthreatening. The signal is also divergent from a stronger signal in Silver that triggered earlier in the week and which is already profitble, albeit only slightly. My gut feeling is that a bullish breakout in Gold will settle the argument, but we'll wait for this to happen rather than jump the gun.  If Silver wins, that would portend  a fall in this vehicle to as low as 4700.60 in the week ahead.

Gold is showing rather more pluck than Silver at the moment, having failed correctively to even reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 4586.20, let alone decisively exceed it as Silver has. The latter's more punitive correction is undoubtedly related to its singular nuttiness in recent years. The seeming divergence will almost surely be resolved in the week ahead, and I lean toward a bullish outcome. The point 'C' high at 5113.90 does not look capable of putting up a fight, and gold showed every sign on Friday of its eagerness to test C's mettle. The only hint of trouble is that the B-C leg of this pattern did not generate a fresh impulse leg with the 5113.90 top.  In any event, we'll need to wait and see how things play out over the next couple of days before assuming new record highs are coming.

Can Gold correct the monster, 1660-point rally since October in mere days? It seems doubtful, but we'll be monitoring the 4588.30 target in the chart closely nevertheless, in case it creates a bottom-fishing opportunity.  That Fibonacci-based number would represent a 62.5% retracement that overshot the 50% mark on Friday, a day after topping at 5626.80.  There is a small chance that the correction has seen its lows, since the 4713.90 closing price was just $2.20 from a downside target derived from a composite monthly chart that goes back to a notable top at 1920.70 recorded in September 2011. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 8:08 a.m.): This reverse pattern yields a clearer picture than the earlier one, which focused on the retracement without having the benefit of the robust rally that has occurred overnight.  The strong push through p=4725.20 has all but guaranteed the move will reach d=5027.10. It also makes a pullbback to the green line (x=4574.20) a good bet to produce a 'mechanical' profit of at least one level (i.e., $151).

Last week's tedious scuddle left the futures on-track for a run-up to at least 4347.30 over the near-term. This Hidden Pivot resistance is just a weigh station en route to the 4529.80 target of a much larger pattern given here earlier. The D target of that pattern is 5126.10, the first I've identified above $5k. I expect potentially tradable resistance at 4347.30, but if buyers punch through it easily, that would shorten the odds of an eventual move to the higher targets given above.

This is the first chart I've drawn that projects a gold price above $5000/oz. The pattern is probably too obvious to work precisely, but that won't negate its ability to keep us confidently on the right side of the trend. A theoretical buy signal has already been signaled with the thrusts through the green line (x=4234.40). However, we can't know how likely the 5126.10 target is to be achieved until we've seen buyers interacts with the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4529.79. For now, we can use it as a minimum upside projection. As always, a decisive move through p, and particularly a close above it, would shorten the odds of a continuation to D.

The 4001.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown perfectly caught the recent low, but if it gets decisively breached, that would open a path down to p2=3877.50, or even to D=3753.3. My bias is mildly bearish for the near term because the downtrend has been in force since before Halloween. Below 4001.70, the best chance bulls would have to turn things around would be at 3976.30, the d target of a smaller reverse pattern (or d=4011.30, basis February). Chances for an upturn there are good enough that I'll recommend bottom-fishing to subscribers who know how to craft a 'camouflage' trigger, a simple trick that I detailed in the chat room not long ago. (It also went out via email to everyone whose 'E-Mail Notifications' feature is checked in the account dashboard.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:35 p.m.): Assuming Feb Gold catches up to Jan Silver, the weekly chart (A=3234.00 on 5/16/25) implies more upside over the near term to at least 4529.70. A stall there would validate a pattern that projects to as high as 5126.10. 

Friday's carnage left the futures on track for a likely relapse to the 3976.20 target shown in the chart.  A bullish alternative would start with a rally exceeding Friday's intraday high at 4215.10. New record highs would become an odds-on bet at that height. Because the reverse pattern yielding the 3976.20 target, a Hidden Pivot support, is not obvious, bottom-fishing there is recommended. I'd suggest using a 'camo' trigger from a lesser intraday chart to do this, however, since there are several prior lows to the left that are likely to attract competition from overly eager buyers, some of whom are as clever as we are. ________ UPDATE (Nov 18, 10:29 p.m.): Buyers came back to life, giving the futures a possible reprieve. The uptrend projects to 4144.60, and a pullback to 4034.20 can be bought with a 3997.00 stop-loss. The rally will still need to exceed 4215.10 to tell us that bulls are ready for a charge to new record highs. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:03 a.m.): The futures have rallied as high as 4096 after lightly kissing the bid I'd suggested above at 4034.20 with a 4034.00 low. The subsequent rally could have produced a profit of more than $6000 per contract, but I have not established a tracking position because no one mentioned it in the chat room. The 4144.60 target has yet to be achieved, and the effort is not pretty to watch, but it remains valid nonetheless as a minimum objective.