Gold

June Gold ended the week in a dither about what comes next. Three marginal penetrations last week of the p midpoint support implied that sellers lack the conviction to push the futures down to D=2235.70.  We'll be better able to judge their mood and capabilities after we've seen how the markets open Sunday evening. In any event, it would take a decisive push above C=2364.40 to suggest bulls have the wattage to take out mid-April's record peak at 2448.80.

The 2488.90 target shown has a good chance of being reached, but there is no reassurance this will happen without an intervening, potentially severe, correction.  The future would become an appealing 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the red line (p=2114.80), and an even more compelling one at, heaven forbid, x=1927.70. What are the odds it will turn out that bad? It's not worth worrying about at the moment, since a reverse pattern on the weekly chart suggests a pullback would not even reach the red line -- would in all likelihood go no lower than 2170.20 (a=2159.00 on 5/5). There is even a chance of perhaps 40% that last week's low at 2304.60 (basis June) will turn out to have been the correction low, since it coincides with p of the same reverse pattern.  For a clearer perspective on the larger pattern, here's a continuous monthly chart with a cleaner point 'A' low and a 2514.60 target that corresponds to the June's 2488.90. _______ UPDATE (Apr 30, 3:26 p.m.): With today's breakdown, the June contract has signaled more downside to at least p2=2280.00, but possibly to D=2251.90. The ability of either of these Hidden Pivot supports to resist the selling will give us a better idea concerning how the bigger-picture Hidden Pivot supports identified above will play out. I will continue to track gold and silver very closely, since chat-room interest has been high. 

I only belatedly discovered the reason for the hard selloff a week ago from 2448.80. That number lies just 0.70 from the target of the very gnarly pattern shown. I still think the June contract has a better than 50% chance of achieving a somewhat higher target at 2514.60 given here earlier. However, we should be very cautious at the moment, since this corrective pattern on the weekly chart suggests the June contract will fall to at least 2309.50 before it finds traction. Worst case would be 2170.20, and we cannot rule it out, but we'll be looking to bottom-fish at p=2309.50 (slightly adjusted from last week) in any case. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 1:35 a.m.): The clowns/thieves/Masters of the Universe who erroneously believe they are manipulating this vehicle were themselves manipulated into a nearly $40 plunge when June Gold fell Monday night to a so-far low at 2308.70 -- less than $1 from the Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged above. The $19 bounce that has occurred so far would need to hit 2348.00 to move the futures out of the danger zone; otherwise, look for a further drop to at least 2239.90 (see my chart), a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished as aggressively as the one at 2309.50.

Mr. Slammy made his appearance late in the day after leaving the futures somewhat shy of the 2514.60 target that we used last week as a bull market lodestar. It will be achieved, rest assured, but not necessarily on our schedule. Friday afternoon's $100 slapdown from the top of a strong rally was so swift and punitive that one might think the solons who regulate the futures markets pass out awards for the most brazen heists by the criminals who control the markets. Their tracks have nonetheless provided a clear technical picture to guide our efforts in trading and positioning bullion. Expect the correction to come down to at least 2309.00, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. We'll want to bottom-fish there, whether to augment positions or open new ones, so stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications to keep apprised.

Although prayer can't hurt, I doubt that it can push June Gold past the 2356.90 target shown any time soon. With the futures peaking just $7 from this daunting Hidden Pivot on Friday, a correction is due soon. We should be prepared for a nasty one, too, since it has taken the June contract more than four years to get there. Even so, we should open our minds to the satisfying possibility that buyers will blow past D with ease. If that happens, accompanied by voracious, insatiable buying, our focus could shift hopefully toward $3000, gold bugs' next dream number. In the meantime, we can use this reverse pattern, with a tentative, worst-case pullback target at 1991.10, to exploit the trend confidently. We'll adjust everything upward if a new high occurs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 12:54 a.m. EDT): Although the June futures have receded from this morning's 2372.50 peak, the $18 overshoot of so clear a target is significant and at least mildly bullish. When a big-pattern target has been exceeded, we usually look at the target of a smaller 'extension' pattern as an alternative. In this case, the lesser pattern's D target at 2367.50 has also been hit -- and somewhat exceeded -- implying gold should correct for perhaps 2-3 days. Here's the chart.  And if it doesn't?  Ordinarily, I would say June Gold's overshoot of $2372 is quite bullish. But I am all-too-conscious of the fact that subscribers are counting on me to avoid getting crushed if and when the pond scum that Spartacus refers to as 'Mr Slammy' makes his all-but-inevitable appearance. Greatly complicating things is Mr Market's propensity to fuck as many of us as possible, as often as He can. That could mean He continues to push the precious metals complex higher without rest, so that

The 2306.40 rally target we've been using for nearly a month looks like a lock-up at this point. April Gold's ascent has been so urgent that there was only one 'mechanical' opportunity to buy a pullback on the daily chart. That occurred with a dip that barely brushed the red line, never mind fell to the green one. Friday's stab above p2=2228.30 was further evidence that a run-up to D has become all but unavoidable. Even so, we should pay close attention to price action near 2290.80, the target of a much larger pattern on the weekly chart. Although I expect the futures to get past it, the closely coincident location of the two targets implies that an important top could form at the 2300 level. Note: The equivalent D target for August is 2344.60, _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 11:28 a.m.): The June contract is closing on a potentially VERY important target at 2356.90! Here's the chart.

The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would  certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.

I've made a finicky adjustment to the point A low that yields a slightly lower rally target at 2269.10. Months of tedium at p do not allow certitude about whether D will be reached, nor does the stall precisely at p2=2167; however, my gut feeling is that 2269.10 will work as a minimum upside target. If April Gold gets no lift from last week's soporific string of lows near 2159.40, the next place you could step in to buy with a tight stop-loss would be at 2116.00. That's the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:26 a.m.): The futures should be presumed bound for the 2306.20 target shown in this chart once they push decisively past the 2269.10 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above. 

Although I promoted a 2307 target here last week, I'm going to dial it back a little with the 2276.60 target of a larger pattern. For reasons of clarity alone, it should take precedence over the higher number, and therefore be viewed as a potential rally-stopper. In any case, resistances at both p and p2 were violated so brutally that there should be little doubt about using 2276.60 as a minimum upside projection. The rally was too steep even when it began early last week to catch an easy ride. The same conditions will likely obtain this week, so any attempt to get aboard would need to come from an intraday set-up on the lesser charts.