March 2012

If bulls are going to reverse two days of moderate weakness, look for them to make their move near the 1392.25 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown.  Since the pivot is just a tick above an obvious structural support at 1392.00, the most effective way to trigger a low-budget liftoff would be to run stops just below the support.  Accordingly, traders should look for a camo abc rally on charts of 3-minute degree or less to get long at the pattern's point 'X'.  ________ UPDATE (11:37 a.m. EDT): An easy breach of the midpoint support has put the futures on course for a further fall to 1385.25, its 'd' sibling. You can bottom-fish there with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot webinar and a coupon good for a $50 discount.)

We caught a low nearly perfectly yesterday, but the bounce didn't last long enough to celebrate. A four-contract tracking position that kept us briefly in the game racked up a $600 gain before we exited on signs of fresh weakness via a 1669.00 stop-loss.  Moderate selling was continuing early Thursday morning, generating downside targets at 1656.00 (p) and 1645.20 (d). Both are shown in the chart, but neither is particularly appealing for bottom-fishing because of their close proximity to prior lows.

A key goal of Rick’s Picks is to offer trade set-ups that risk relatively little even when we are wrong.  This is of particular importance because our subscribers tend to be overly bearish on stocks and overly bullish on gold. Prices for the latter have been slipping for a month, and although that might discourage fair-weather buyers, it has only made our gold bugs more eager to try bottom-fishing with each new selloff. And with stock averages now entering their fourth consecutive year of stupidly rising prices, Rick’s Picks subscribers have been keener than ever to short that diabolically elusive Mother of All Tops. We tried this for the umpteenth time yesterday, buying put options just as the QQQs were topping pennies from where expected. We’ll get to that trade in a moment.  But first, let’s talk about the trade in Comex Gold, since it illustrates how one can swim against the tide, buying the dips and dives in bullion without getting hurt even when the selling turns ugly, as it all too often does. We’d put out a buy recommendation in gold futures Tuesday night that was based on some precise “Hidden Pivot” correction targets in the Comex April and June contracts.  Ordinarily, we  tell subscribers to initiate such trades using the “camouflage” entry technique they've learned at the monthly Hidden Pivot Webinar. [Click here for details and a $50 discount for the April class.] This time, however, the bearish targets looked so appealing that we sanctioned dispensing with “camouflage” and simply buying either the April or June gold contract with a five-tick stop-loss. This entailed, in the case of the April, placing a bid two ticks above a 1669.90 Hidden Pivot target and using a stop-loss a hair below it, at 1669.60.  In the actual event, the micro-tight

After rallying sharply this week, the Cubes topped yesterday at 68.49, a mere 0.16 points from a Hidden Pivot target at 68.65 flagged here a while back. Officially we did nothing, since I'd shelved a recommendation to buy May 68 puts if this vehicle got within 0.07 points of the target.  I mention the target now because it has the potential to be an important top -- the culmination of an ABCD rally pattern that took nearly two months to complete. The chart shown was prepared by 'SD1' -- Thanks! -- and helpfully linked by him in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (12:58 p.m. EDT): I'm establishing a tracking position because some subscribers evidently bought puts when this vehicle head-faked to 68.51 this morning -- just 0.14 from the target.  Assuming four puts purchased for 1.56 (they could have been bought for as little as 1.41, but the price I'm using mimics the market order that one subscriber had in at the opening), we cashed out two for 1.78 in real time during today's weekly tutorial session. That leaves two calls with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 1.34. Do nothing further for now.

We're using a 1455.75 target as a lodestone for now, although yesterday's punk action should have put traders off any sentimental attachment to it. For purposes of getting long, I'll suggest using 'p' and 'd' retracement targets that look nice on the 15- or 30-minute chart.  To actually set-up a 'camo' entry trigger, however, you'll need to hunker down on the three-minute chart. Notice in the specimen shown the nice crop of 'external' peaks ready to be harvested for that purpose.

The selloff from highs achieved in the wee hours put the hourly chart in 'dueling' mode, but bulls still held an edge Tuesday night, since the rally was more impressive than the pullback that  has occurred thus far.  From here, with a prospective 'C' low at 32.480, it will take at 4.68-cent booster rally to get this vehicle off the launching pad.  Traders should look to get long on the three-minute chart (or less) if the implied entry trigger at 32.775 is hit.  That number would of course change if point 'C' doesn't survive.

I've flagged a possible bottom-fishing  trade for night owls in April (or June) Gold, based on a Hidden Pivot retracement target that is nicely situated in the middle of nowhere, just as we like 'em.  This gambit can be attempted either via 'camouflage' or with a straight bid and a stop-loss as tight as five ticks. Precise details are contained in the current tout.

Selling at the tail end of yesterdays session shaved a third off Monday's 'Nank-induced rally (not that he intended that bullion be a beneficiary of QE3 bloviations).  The weakness has continued into Tuesday night, breaching a 1677.60 midpoint support by enough to imply that its 'd' sibling at 1669.90 will be reached. Accordingly, I'll recommend 'camo' bottom-fishing on the three-minute chart or less if and when the target is closely approached. If you want to do it the easy way, but with more risk, bid 1670.10 for two contracts, stop 1669.60.  Since your initial risk is a theoretical 50 cents, you should plan on exiting half the position on a rally to 1671.60. Note:  The equivalent 'D' target for the June contract is 1672.90.  _______ UPDATE (9:34 a.m. EDT):  June Gold rallied $7 after bottoming within two ticks of the 1672.90 target. Assuming four contracts bought and a partial profit on half at 1674.40, we hold two with an effective cost basis of 1671.40.  Now, offer one to close at 1679.80, a tick below a clear target on the 3-minute chart, but make the order o-c-o with one to exit both contracts on a stop at 1673.40. (Note:  The April contract missed its target by only one tick, allowing trades to get long with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. I'll track two remaining contracts with an effective cost basis of  1668.50. This assume a partial profit taken on two at 1671.50.  Tie them to a 1670.90 stop-loss, o-c-o with an order to close out one more contract at 1677.10.) _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:05 a.m. EDT):  A rally has taken us out of a third contract, either April or June, by exceeding their respective 'D' targets.  We now hold either a June contract with a profit-adjusted cost basis of

There was more than a little interest in this stock yesterday in the chat room, although I'm not sure why, since Apple shares can neither be bought nor shorted safely right now.  The monthly chart promises more upside to as high as 698.61, warning that we ought not attempt to intercept this blowoff, let alone do so aggressively merely because the rally is getting a little stupid.  However, if it's just bragging rights you're after, then stick with the hourly charts and use 'camo' tactics only at 'p' and 'D' pivots of single-bar patterns rooted in one-off points 'A'.  And it wouldn't hurt if the 'k-A' and 'B-C' segments looked like, if not siblings, then hillbilly cousins.  Come to think of it, the pattern shown has all of these things, so by all means test your camouflage chops at its 'D' target, 646.82. In the meantime, you could almost swear the little s.o.b. is consolidating just above that pattern's 611.11 midpoint pivot. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot webinar and a coupon good for a $50 discount.)