June 2013

A possible finale to the steep plunge predicted here nearly two months ago, when the futures were trading more than $3 higher, came with 19 cents of the 18.115 target this morning.  However, based on a closer look at the chart shown, I am revising the target downward to 17.885.  This looks like a promising spot to try bottom-fishing, and so I'll suggest doing so via camouflage on a chart of 5-minute degree or less.  You should start looking for the opportunity when July Silver gets within 3 cents of the target. ______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:15 a.m. EDT): The 10% rally from Friday's lows may seem impressive, and we should certainly be encouraged. However, take another look at the chart accompanying my original tout and you'll see that the 17.885 target given above still looks quite compelling if not inevitable. Short-term, however, a thrust exceeding June 23's 20.175 peak would be bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, implying that any subsequent pullback could set up a camo buying opportunity.

This rally is sucker-bait, but we may not get a chance to short the 1604.00 target given here yesterday, since the futures struggled without success to reach a lesser target at 1594.25 (see inset).  The target remains valid nonetheless, but it should be shorted only with 'camouflage' because it coincides with an obvious structural resistance recorded on June 21.  This gambit is for experts only, since a print at 1594.25 would create a bullish impulse leg on the chart shown.

We'll look for ways to short this rally aggressively if it continues, since only a fool or an economist could fail to understand that the steep rise in mortgage rates has already ended America's fraudulent housing boom, and with it the brazen deception that the Great Recession ever ended.

Forecasting the stock market’s price swings accurately is just a cheap parlor trick, as we often like to remind subscribers.  For the most part, and notwithstanding the diligent efforts of Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe to manipulate shares to their advantage, we see technical evidence each day that suggests that stocks and commodities are ruled by a sort of cosmic metronome. If you’re skeptical, we would urge you to visit the Rick’s Picks chat room sometime and see for yourself that predicting the exact highs and lows of minor trends has become a matter of routine for many of the technically trained ninjas who frequent the room. Far less predictable, however, are the kind of seismic events that make headlines and which have the potential to shake the financial world to its core.  Indeed, speculating about what might happen the next day, even the most gifted market seers cannot but hazard a guess as to whether the Dow Industrials are about to plummet by two-thousand points or instead rise by as much.  Thus do the market’s more or less predictable ups and downs ultimately do the bidding, not of algorithms and trading machines, but of a fearsome, id-driven hybrid of insect, reptile, sea monster and rabid dog. Traders step into the cage with this diabolical creature each day and take its measure not really knowing whether it is about to lull us to sleep, or instead rewrite history with a feat so stunning that even those who have observed the markets for 50 years will be numb with shock. Lulled to Death But as long as stocks continue to move mainly in one direction, as they’ve been doing since March of 2009, we tend to see, not the nightmares of investors’ collective subconscious, but a quite normal species that

With yesterday's breach of a clear HP support at 1559.75, the futures signaled further weakness to as low as 1518.50.  Important lows made in March/April just above that number will make it less useful for our purposes, however, since 'structural' support will likely supersede Hidden Pivots in determining a swing low. The most promising short conceivable at this point would be from near the 1604 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. That's a 45-point rally from here, and that would surely be enough to turn 'everyone' bullish again.  We would have good reason for caution, however, since a run-up to the midpoint pivot would have 'bull trap' written all over it

We haven't traded Silver Wheaton (SLW) in a while, but I've included the stock in today's list of touts because it would become an enticing buy on a further fall of about 13% from current levels. For precise details, including an option-based strategy for bottom-fishing, check out the SLW tout and the chart that accompanies it.

It's been quite a while since we fooled around with this stock, but I am featuring it today since it would become a fetching buy at the 16.74 Hidden Pivot target shown. That is my minimum downside objective for the near term, and if it is reached that would represent a further fall of nearly 13% from current levels.  The corrective abc pattern looks sufficiently compelling that we can attempt bottom-fishing without camouflage. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four Aug 17 calls if and when the stock gets within 8-12 cents of the target. If this were to occur next week, I would guess that the calls would be trading for around 1.40, give or take a dime. You should monitor the bid/offer for the options as the stock approaches the target, since that will give you a precise idea of how much you should pay for them. We'll risk a theoretical $100 on the trade by stopping ourselves out if the options trade for 0.25 less than we've paid for them. _______ UPDATE (June 27, 3:38 a.m. EDT):  The 16.74 target flagged above still looks opportune, but to avoid missing a buying opportunity if it's not reached, I'll suggest looking for camouflage set-ups on the 15-second chart.  A key high at 17.86 recorded at 2:45:15 is the kind of 'external' peak I have in mind for this gambit. _______ UPDATE (July 2, 2:55 a.m. EDT):  The stock has reversed sharply off a 17.74 low that lay a dollar above my target. This is short-term bullish, although not yet entirely persuasive because Friday's high suspiciously failed to surpass a key 'external peak at 19.85 recorded on June 24.  In any event, camouflage traders should look for opportunities -- probably from the buy side -- on the 15-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (July

Apple could fall a further $107 before reaching the worst-case Hidden Pivot target at 295.85 shown in the chart.  Regardless, we'll want to try bottom-fishing at the 380.80 midpoint support, since it promises to launch a tradable bounce, however short-lived. The rally could be especially steep, since the low will have occurred following an ostensible breakdown beneath the 385.10 bottom recorded in mid-April. For now, though, use 380.80 as a minimum downside objective.  A two-day close beneath that number would of course shorten the odds of a continuation of the bear market to D=295.85. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:38 a.m.): An upturn has come from 388.87 -- well above my target support -- but we shouldn't get too excited because Friday's high failed to take out the previous day's peak at 401.39.  _______ UPDATE (July 8, 3:03 a.m. EDT): The last rally failed to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, weakening the bullish case for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (July 10): After lagging the market for nearly a week, Apple lurched higher yesterday, aided by a bear-trap opening and the short-squeeze that ensued. The 437.94 rally target shown ( see inset, a fresh chart) should be kept in mind, along with a 424.16 midpoint resistance that can be leveraged by camouflageurs looking for a place to board. _______ UPDATE (July 22, 3:30 p.m. EDT): A $13 rally sputtered out at 434.87, more than $3 shy of the target. This is a warning to bulls that the selling would become stronger if the current correction exceeds its 420.12 target (see inset, a fresh chart). Regardless, the target and its 'p' sibling at 424.93 are logical spots to try bottom fishing via camouflage. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 5:30 p.m. EDT):  We'll back away for now, since lunatics, scoundrels

Detour Gold, a stock that hung tough while most other miners were dropping like stones, has finally succumbed. However,  it has been idling near the 8.4494 Hidden Pivot target shown for two months without having breached the support by much (see inset).  Under the circumstances, we might look to jump on the first 'camo' opportunity that occurs.  I'll suggest monitoring the 30-minute chart, where a potential entry set-up was developing thus:  A= 8.2130 on 6/21 at 1:00 p.m. EDT. _______ UPDATE (June 26, 3:50 a.m.): We'll back away for now, since yesterday's 30-cent plunge obliterated the HP support noted above.