July 2014

We took a short position in the E-Mini S&P overnight even though the futures had barely corrected from an ostensibly important rally target at 1984.25. This is obviously a very speculative bet, but the Hidden Pivot target we used to get short was just too succulent to pass up. We didn't quite get our number, since the E-Minis actually topped at 1983.50.  That's close enough, though, so we'll cross our fingers and let it ride.

There are several minor ABC uptrends driving September Crude right now, and the next logical upside target is the 103.85 Hidden Pivot shown.  It was calculated by sliding the point A low down a tad, since the 103.33 rally target projected from A= 101.13 was very precisely spent as of Tuesday. Above 103.85, a 104.70 target will be in play, based on a higher B-C of 103.45/101.79.  I view all of these numbers as tradable in some fashion, since crude has been moving very reliably and exactly to our targets lately.

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I'd advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We'll do nothing further for now, but I'd suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We'll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I've reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into 'free' butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven't yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn't blast off.  ______ UPDATE (August 3, 6:10 p.m.): Several subscribers reported success legging into the 'free' butterfly spread as suggested. The position is riskless at this point, but last week's selloff has lengthened odds of a big payoff. Priceline will have to show some giddyap in the days ahead to give the spread a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 1:03 p.m.):  With PCLN caught in a vicious short-squeeze, our butterfly is currently BID around 0.90, meaning the worst possible exit right now would produce a position profit for us -- based on 16

I'm tracking a single contract short from 1982.50, based on the following post by me in the chat room at 1:45 p.m. EDT: "Aw, screw it. Just for the hell of it, let's offer a single contract short at 1982.50, stop 1985.25, risking a theoretical $137.50 plus commissions. I'd hate myself if we actually missed a great short up here."  Actually, it looked like we had missed the short, since I'd suggested initiating it at a longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 1984.25 that was missed by three ticks when this vehicle topped for the day at 1983.50 in the first hour. The futures subsequently crept back up to 1982.75 later in the session, and it was then that I advised getting short for the hell of it. We remained short at the bell, but anyone who did the trade is advised to monitor it overnight, and to use the 1985.25 stop-loss suggested. That implies that we are risking a theoretical 2.75 points to stay in the trade.  If we use the fixed risk:reward of 1:3 that I always advise, we need a move our way of at least 8.25 points, to 1974.25, before we implement a trailing stop. (Had we initiated the trade with multiple contracts, we would take a partial profit there on half the position.)  I may suggest an impulse leg-based stop-loss if ESU falls straightaway to 1974.25, so stay tuned to the chat room if you're unclear on how to do this. It is my intention to come out of this trade with at least a small profit even if ESU blows higher, as is likely. That will be possible if we get the pullback to 1974.25, since a 1981.25 stop-loss would become automatic at that point, subject to the substitution of a trailing stop. Meanwhile, I've

This is a good vehicle for playing the huge rally in T-Bonds that I expect over the next couple of years. I will have more to say about this in an upcoming commentary, but for now let's focus on possible trades to leverage it.  For starters, I'll recommend buying the September 20/August 1  118-strike call calendar spread 16 times for 0.52, contingent on the underlying ETF trading 115 or higher.  If it falls below that price, lower your spread bid by a penny for each 7-cent drop in TLT. (Thus, with TLT trading at 114.93, you would be 0.51 bid for the spread.) Our goal will be to roll the short side of our spread to a later date as each series that we are short expires.  Ideally, if TLT continues to move higher, we will take in enough premium between now and September 20 to more than offset the cost of the long September 20 calls we will continue to hold. We can also parlay any profits into bigger spreads at still-higher strikes, increasing our leverage with TLT's expected ascent. Please let me know in the chat room how you're faring bidding for the spread, since we can adjust our price on-the-fly if we need to pay more. Also let me know if it comes too easily -- presumably off a spread order @ 0.52 -- since that would imply we're overpaying. ______ UPDATE (8:58 p.m. EDT):  The spread stayed just out of range Wednesday, but you should keep trying. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:25 p.m.):  The stock opened on a gap lower, making the calendar spread an easy buy for 0.44 (as reported by a subscriber in the chat room). I'll use that as a cost basis for 16 spreads, but keep trying, since you may be able

I'm not sure whether it's the effect of solar flare and/or sun spots, Mercury out-of-retrograde or perhaps a mild remission of my incipient senile dementia, but Hidden Pivot targets in nearly all vehicles that I track have been working with amazing accuracy lately.  Even crude oil, for which we usually allow 21 cents of leeway at projected highs and lows, has been turning within less than a dime of Hidden Pivot targets disseminated in the chat room or via touts.  If you're keen on making hay with these forecasts while the sun is shining, check out actionable touts for EUR/USD, E-Mini S&P and GDXJ in today's list.  To me, at least, the target given for each of these vehicles looks like it absolutely cannot miss.

In the previous tout, all my targets were given in green, implying higher prices are coming. However, since my gut feeling is that August Gold is about to relapse down to the 1278.20 (or alternatively, 1271.70) target given in the current GCQ14 tout, you should hold firmly in mind the bearish, 40.42 target shown (see inset) for this vehicle just in case. GDXJ will of course have a great opportunity to turn higher from 42.55, the midpoint HP support here, and you will risk little bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss of perhaps 6 cents. But if the stop is hit, expect more slippage to 40.42, which also could be bottom-fished aggressively with an absurdly tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 9:03 p.m. EDT):  Today's slippage to 41.82 was not exactly a sign of robust health. As as result, the 40.42 target is in play. It can be bought aggressively with a tight stop if the opportunity should arise.

I haven't tracked currencies that closely, but because they tend to move very precisely to Hidden Pivot targets, traders should consider exploiting them whenever possible. Notice how EUR/USD has broken beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1.34841 after noodling around near that pivot for a few hours on Thursday. This suggests that it is bound for D=1.34197, at least.  You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks.  Notice as well that there are two slightly higher possibilities for point 'A'.  The correction targets they yield lie, respectively, at 1.34114 and, worst case, 1.33992.  I expect these numbers to work very precisely, so use them in whatever way suits you best.  Note as well that a last-gasp rally to p=1.34738 after EUR/USD has fallen a bit would be short-able. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:35 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday's short-squeeze feint topped precisely at a midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset, a new chart) that was originally support but which is now resistance. This price action confirms the pattern we've chosen as well as its 'D' target at 1.34197. At least one subscriber has confirmed getting short in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (July 27, 10:43 p.m.):  Friday's low occurred at 1.34206 -- 0.00009 above our 1.34197 target.  Shorts should have covered there, but if you were able to bottom-fish the low and catch a piece of the 144-tick rally that ensued, please let me know in the chat room and so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (July 30, 2:43 p.m.): The futures have breached the lowest of the targets I'd provide from the lesser charts. This implies that a bigger-picture target at 1.32091 is in play. The chart(see inset, a new one) shows this.

The E-Mini S&Ps made no progress whatsoever yesterday toward an ostensibly 'easy' rally target at 1984.50. In the past, stalemates like this one have been resolved to the upside once sufficient pressure has built up to trigger a wave of short-covering. Odds will always favor that scenario in a bull market that has been chugging along for more than five years, but we'll keep an eye on the lesser charts nevertheless just to be sure. The first sign that something has changed would occur with minor abcd retracements exceeding their d targets.