December 2014

The midpoint pivot, shown as a red line at 1160.44, has been central to PCLN's behavior over the last two sessions, corroborating the 1180.03 target.  The pivot was exceeded by a sufficient margin on Monday to imply that the target is likely to be reached. However, I wouldn't suggest a 'mechanical' entry at 1160.44, since it carries initial, theoretical risk of more than $6. Instead, you should look to get long via 'camouflage' on charts of 5-minute degree or less. At the moment, that would require a pullback from just above 1162.84, a tiny but well-formed external peak that can be found on the 5-minute chart at 1:45 p.m. EST.

One step up, two steps back: that's how gold has cruelly "played" bulls since peaking near $1900 in 2011. One of these days, when the accustomed bull-trap rally seems to have lost its ability to rekindle even a faint flicker of hope in long-term investors, the bottom will be in. For now, though, we should treat each new uphtrust as a sucker's bet, buying only at pullback targets or on minor, impulsive breakouts. An uncorrected thrust exceeding 1256.20 over the next couple of weeks would dramatically change the picture, but until such time as that happens, we should view gold's daily ups and (mostly) downs with clinical detachment and just a dash of cynicism. In the meantime, and most immediately, permabulls who can't shake the buying habit might try getting long using a pattern similar to the hypothetical one I've sketched (see inset). It has the potential to reduce theoretical entry risk to perhaps 3-5 ticks -- and there's always the chance you'll be on board for the unexpected ride to $1400 that sustains our interest. _______ UPDATE (8:33 p.m. EST): The trading opportunity I'd alluded to was ripening at press time, so don't tarry if you're keen on getting aboard. _______ UPDATE (10:07 p.m. EST): Shortly before 7 p.m., February Gold tripped a buy signal at 1185.10 with a pattern similar to the one I'd  drawn. Since the futures went on to achieve the 1187.70 'camouflage' target, you should be out of three-fourths of a four-contract position, swinging for the fences with the contract that remains.

It seems almost too pat to expect this week to deliver more-of-the-same, but that's what I'm expecting: a lazy, upward drift in the broad averages, with minimal movement in issues that dawdled. We've got some positions on in any case, including the bull leg of a TLT call spread that still needs to be capped with some short calls that will reduce position risk to zero. Check the tout update for explicit details.

There are many upside projections for this vehicle right now, both major and minor. For trading purposes, I like the one shown. It implies 19 points of upside, worth $950 per contract for (Sunday) night owls nimble enough to catch a ride. The short against-the-trend from 2103.50 will likely be less challenging however, and I'll recommend initiating the trade via a 2103.00 single-contract offer, stop 2104.25. You can widen the stop and increase the size if you are reversing a long position at the target. _______ UPDATE: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Please note that I disseminated a lesser target, a possible impediment at 2092.75, during yesterday's impromptu session.

My most recent update for February Gold offered a minimum upside projection of 1219.40 over the near term, with a shot at 1268.00 if the futures can get past the lower number without difficulty. The chart shown zooms in on a piece of the expected rally small enough to provide a possible entry point with relative little risk. The pattern has already tripped an entry signal at 1195.70 for a short hop to 1199.10, the midpoint pivot. However, the initial theoretical risk of $480 is about ten times what we would ordinarily put at stake. Instead, I'll suggest cutting the ante down to size by using a still-smaller pattern similar to the one shown to get aboard. _______ UPDATE (10:55 a.m.): The trade was a non-starter, since gold went lower overnight and has remained leaden this morning.

This week's commentary, Predictions for 2015 and Beyond, mentions a 19457 target for the Dow Industrials. This Hidden Pivot resistance is shown in the accompanying chart, and although I didnt' notice it earlier, the very sharp, precise pullback from the 17399 midpoint pivot corroborates the target itself.  It would also be a logical places to attempt bottom-fishing on a pullback, although I'd suggest using the 'camouflage' technique to limit entry risk.  If you're unsure about how to do this, stay tuned to the chat room, where I'll be providing real-time guidance if the Indoos should retrace to the red line.

In the past, Rick’s Picks has shunned year-end predictions because there are far too many variables to handicap accurately. I’ve decided to take a crack at it anyway this year because I was curious to see what conclusions purely technical analysis would yield for some widely followed issues. I’m no seer, just a chartist, and I’ll say up front that the question of whether the Dow Industrials are trading at 23,000 at the end of 2015, or at 14,000, is probably no better than a coin-toss bet. Also, because the stock market is a house of cards and only distantly connected to economic reality, only a fool would try to predict the timing of The Big One that we all know is coming. Stocks could collapse at any moment, to be sure, and although I doubt this will occur next year, the odds are hardly remote. If you absolutely need to know when calamity will strike, I recommend checking the year-end predictions of Bob Prechter, Martin Armstrong and Ross Clark, since they are the very best timers in the guru world. Click here to share these stock predictions for 2015 on Twitter Keeping the foregoing in mind, I’ve allowed for both bullish and bearish scenarios in most of the forecasts above. Those designated ‘N/A’ imply outcomes that are unimaginable to me. For instance, the shares of Snipp Interactive, a penny stock that is my number one bullish pick for 2015, seem unlikely to head lower no matter what happens to the economy. The firm provides personal-device-based marketing solutions to a growing list of blue-chip clients, and they are nimble and imaginative enough not only to excel in their niche, but to expand it. Similarly, Apple looks like a surefire winner, especially with the company positioning itself via Apple Pay to

<a href="http://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Anatomy-of-a-profitable-trade-in-CMG.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-67040" title="Anatomy of a profitable trade in CMG" src="http://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Anatomy-of-a-profitable-trade-in-CMG-126x67.jpg" alt="" width="126" height="67" /></a>A query about this stock in the chat room yesterday allowed for some very timely bottom-fishing that could have produced a gain of as much as $548 per round lot for any trader who caught the low.  At 11:50 a.m., in response to a question about CMG, I responded as follows: "<em>You could bottom-fish at 680.93, a target that comes from the 5-minute chart</em>." At the time, Chipotle shares were trading for around 683.72, down more than $9 on the day. Subscribers reported buying call options when the stock fell still lower, hitting the target on its way to an intraday bottom at 680.41.  Minutes later CMG erupted, hitting an intraday high at 686.41 that allowed subscribers an easy and profitable exit from the position. If any of you held onto a piece of it, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance. <strong>_______ UPDATE</strong> (8:59 a.m. EST): <em>Zounds!  The stock exploded in after-hours trading and is quoted at 698.98, pre-opening -- up $14 from yesterday. Since subscribers are reporting "live" positions, I'll track one of them -- four Jan 10 690 calls purchased for 6.10 (as noted by 'Dalawman' yesterday in the chat room.) For now, offer two of the calls at-the-market on the opening. They are likely to be especially richly priced at the bell, since short-squeeze dynamics will obtain. <strong>_______ </strong></em><strong>UPDATE</strong> (January 5, 1:06 a.m.): <em>Whatever remained of the position would not likely have survived the $23 slide of the last two sessions.  In any case, I'd be interested in hearing from subscribers who did the trade -- and presumably came away with a profit, since some of you were abole to get aboard

Will stocks continue to waft higher in the final days of 2014? Join me in the chat room Friday for a look at the markets and some strategizing in real time.  If you don't subscribe, take a free trial for two weeks by clicking here.