The corrective pattern shown was proffered by a keen-eyed subscriber in the chat room on Friday and should work well to keep us abreast of the trend as the new week begins. It triggered a 'mechanical' short in the first hour that could have been worth as much as $2,800 before the day ended. The way the downtrend penetrated p=3938 will slightly favor bears, but we'll stay open-minded to the possibility that DaBoyz will blow out the reverse pattern's 'c' high at 4050.75 Sunday night or Monday. If not, try bottom-fishing at D=3827.00 with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 6:41 p.m.): The short at 3994.81, stop 4051.00, triggered at 1:45 p.m. EST. Those of us who swear by 'mechanical' trades are obliged to love this one, if only in theory, since who in their right mind would want to initiate a short at the tail end of a Tuesday before Thanksgiving? The implied $11,000 risk on four contracts argues for a bit of 'camo' on the entry. Depending on how things play out between now and tomorrow morning, I may get a chance to explain exactly how this trade might have been done at tomorrow's tutorial session. In the meantime, do NOT short this rabid badger.
Twitter and bitcoin share a key similarity in that their success while it lasted was just hubris. Realize that both were birthed by a virtual medium capable of monetizing turds if there is any discoverable demand for them. Cardi B's megahit single Wet Ass Pussy was proof of this. Twitter proffered turds in the form of members-only censorship that took delight in defecating on the Bill of Rights, particularly the First Amendment. But it took Elon Musk, with unlimited quantities of f**k-you money, to put a number on Twitter: $44 billion. Unfortunately for him, nearly all of it was for 'good will' that appears to have vanished. Nor is he likely to be consoled when it is discovered that the dark secret of Twitter's overwrought ex-employees is that they can start a Twitter of their own with just a few mill, a rackful of servers and a dozen high school dropouts working from home, paid $20/hour to code. Cute Little Bird So what are the notoriously spoiled workers so disgruntled about? Leave it to an apparent millennial sympathizer reporting for The Wall Street Journal to excuse them with a high-minded quote uttered by no one in particular: "Employees said Mr. Musk pushed people to work well over 40 hours a week, but said they didn’t feel there was a compelling vision to justify it." A compelling vision? Yeah, sure. And exactly what lofty end did they see themselves serving under Jack Dorsey, Orwell's darkest nightmare masquerading as a little blue birdie? Stay tuned to the blogosphere for more dithering on this and other topics of scant interest to folks who live in the real world. What should please the company's make-believe workforce in any event is that Musk set an intergalactic record for overpayment. If Twitter had changed hands for,
A month's ascent, some of it achieved with exuberant leaps, has generated the first impulse leg of daily-chart degree in a long time. This occurred last Wednesday when TLT poked above a small but technically significant peak at 100.90 recorded on Oct 11. Although the breach of the high warrants giving the bull the slight benefit of the doubt, I've displayed a weekly chart that shows the crag-less wall remaining to be scaled before the rally exceeds even a single peak in this time frame. I'll be looking to bottom-fish nonetheless if sellers bring this vehicle down to within spitting distance of 97.09, last week's low,
Relative to physical, this junior gold proxy underwhelmed investors last week. The disappointment was palpable on Friday, when GDXJ opened just off the previous day's high and traded slightly above it, only to fail by 10 cents to surpass a distinctive 'external' peak at 35.26 recorded back in August. Will it make amends by impulsing above the peak on Monday? Any less would be a discouragement, since buyers shouldn't need a running start from lower levels to accomplish this unchallenging feat.
You don't need to be chartist to see that Apple is not about to go quietly into the night. Since the beginning of the year, every worrisome selloff has been answered by a rally of nearly equal breadth. The stock's long list of sponsors includes virtually every giant investment fund on the planet, many of them sovereign funds with no foreseeable need for quick cash. It is predictable that they will support the stock for as long as possible, presumably until they are overwhelmed by redemptions by individual investors grown mortally fearful of plummeting iPhone sales. That could only occur in the throes of a deep and prolonged global economic downturn, and even then over a months-long period of disillusionment. Rather than proffer a chart for trading purposes this week, the inset shows a channel that could define the limits of the stock's ups and downs in 2023. However, odds would tilt toward a breakout above the upper channel line if the current rally, begun from 134 two weeks ago, surpasses September 12's 164.26 high without correcting to the lower line that currently comes in at around $123.
Last week's so-so bounce offered scant respite from the hard selling that has hammered the dollar since late September. Hidden Pivot levels aside, the Dollar Index looked sufficiently winded when last week ended to give us reason to expect more selling down into the void circled in the chart. It is bracketed by two lows at, respectively, 104.64 and 101.30. Although I doubt the second will be breached by this long-overdue, hard correction, I wouldn't bet the first will hold.
Sellers drove the January contract down through the midpoint support at 82.97 with such force that a further fall to at least D=73.40 appears all but certain. We'll consider getting short 'mechanically' if there's an intervening rally to the green line (x=87.75), or even to p=82.97, but a bottom-fishing opportunity at D seems more likely at present to materialize. If that Hidden Pivot support gets crushed, expect more downside to at least 70.00, or even to 66.70. Both are Hidden Pivot 'D' targets derived from successively higher point 'A's. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 10:18 p.m.): Crude's ballistic rebound from within an inch of the 73.40 downside target drum-rolled above allowed at least one subscriber to report a $1650 profit in the chat room. I see no such lay-up possibilities today, so we'll give it a rest.
Gold has been spitting fire for the last two weeks, so it's doubtful buyers will be deterred by the weighty' external' peak at 1824.60 looming just above. For all the times bullion has disappointed us, reaching a full gallop and then dying, this time the rally looks like the real deal. If and when it pushes above 1824,60, we may have to trade disappointment for tedium, however, since supply is thick above that peak all the way up to 1900. Depending on how quickly buyers chew through it, we could be looking at the long-awaited move that would take gold above $2000 and keep going.
December Silver struggled unsuccessfully all week to punch through a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 21.905. However, the slight poke above it on Friday, along with the shallow pullback to end the week, suggests buyers are ready to take on an important 'external' peak a 22.80 recorded the first week of June. Just above it lies a 'voodoo' number where the futures would be an opportune short, albeit only for a tightly-stopped scalp-trade.
GDXJ has risen in six of the last sessions, generating a very powerful impulse leg on the daily chart that has yet to correct. If buyers take this vehicle above the circled peak at 35.26 on Monday or Tuesday, it would suggest bulls are about to dominate for the foreseeable future. Presumably, they would have an easy path to 37.81, where the next 'external' peak lies. It was recorded in June and does not look like it will pose much of a problem. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 9:50 p.m.): A failure to surpass the 35.26 peak is not the outcome we should have expected from a prospective nascent bull-market. Let's see if buyers can improve on this discouraging performance with a few more days of rest or a running start from lower levels.
