This symbol was setting up for a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 90.61 when last week began, but the green line where we typically do the trade got crushed, negating the opportunity. A new one subsequently materialized with a rally target at 91.49, along with the possibility of a fresh 'mechanical' trigger if TLT drops back to 89.35 (stop 88.62). The crosscurrents have left me mildly bearish, and I would grow moreso if TLT closes for two consecutive days beneath 87.81. That would portend more slippage to as low as 82.83 (daily, A=94.85 on 12-6). _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:42 p.m.): Buyers popped through p today with enough force today to make more upside to D=94.56 an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7): It is terminally discouraging that TLT collapsed without quite having reached my 94.56 target, but also without having taken on the 12/6/24's 'external' peak at 94.85. I don't know that TLT can recover from this failure. If TLT were my kid, I'd leave him at the firehouse.
I've reinstated MSFT as our top market bellwether because other symbols that have served in that role look too punk to count on. The shares of Apple, which couldn't innovate its way out of a wet paper bag, will be extremely vulnerable when recession hits, while Bitcoin's canny handlers lack the guts to lead stocks higher. DaBoyz turns the cryptos loose to run wild whenever the broad averages climb sharply, but this is just go-along price action incapable of exciting traders' animal spirits. 'Doc' Copper doesn't work, either. Although it looks capable of reaching $6.18 a pound, a 20% climb from current levels, that scenario is not believable in the context of a global boom in manufacturing. More likely, it would be a blowoff for the copper-intensive EV story, which has become less compelling as electric-vehicle resale values have plummeted. For better or worse, we should focus on Microsoft to gauge the strength and staying power of this nascent bear rally. With a little more than $3 trillion capitalization, the software behemoth is the third-largest company in the world, just behind Apple and Nvidia. Unlike those companies, however, Microsoft is not especially vulnerable to an economic downturn, since such a large portion of the firm's nearly $200 billion in revenues is derived from recurring subscriptions to cloud computing facilities, personal and business software. Microsoft will remain a cash cow in the hardest imaginable times, even if the supply of dollars implodes in a deflationary bust. A 'Buy' Signal So what does MSFT's chart say? Last week, a rally tripped a theoretical buy signal at 394.56 that implies the stock will reach a minimum 412.20. We should expect a tradable pullback from that number, but if a nasty relapse follows instead, taking out the March 11 low at 376.91, that would
Last week's fleeting thrust to a marginal new peak slightly altered the immediate picture. Expect Bitcoin to fall to at least 81,524, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support that can be used to bottom-fish with a small-pattern (i.e., 'camouflage') trigger. I doubt bears have the gumption to push this vehicle down to the 74,243 target, but the odds would shorten following a two-day close beneath p=81,523. Alternatively, if buyers get revved up and push this vehicle sharply the other way, they are apt to encounter tradable 'voodoo' resistance at 89,802. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 2:03 p.m.): I had scheduled the above to autopublish tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon, neglecting to consider that the little sonofabitch never sleeps. My 81,523 downside target did in fact catch the low of an $1100 bounce within one-tenth of a percentage point. I mention this belatedly because I didn’t want Bitcoin’s 24/7 histrionics to cheat me out of a damned good call.
Traders spent the entire week screwing the pooch, demonstrating that bulls and bears are equally clueless at the moment. It suggests that the coming bear rally will likely be a tedious affair, about as much fun to watch as the 1893 New Orleans matchup between two determined lightweight boxers, Andy Bowen and Jack Burke. It went 110 rounds before the ref mercifully called it a draw. Will the SEC step in and freeze stocks at a permanently high plateau? My hunch is that the longer this slugfest lasts, the more likely the broad averages will make marginal new highs before a full-blown, take-no-prisoners bear emerges. More immediately, however, you should use 5845.75, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset), as a minimum upside objective when the new week begins. It will remain viable as long as traders, entranced by Wall Street's fun-house mirror, don't stop themselves out with a stupid, pointless feint beneath last week's 5650.75 low.
MSFT's glory days may not return soon, but the polio-inflicted rally begun two weeks ago from a shell-shocked low at 377 has at least a little farther to go. Specifically, a Hidden Pivot resistance at 398.06 beckons and can be used as a minimum upside target for the next 2-3 days. A tradable pullback is likely there, but the effect could be muted by my billboarding it on the front page. (Please note: It is visible only to paying subscribers.) Pivoteers can hitch a ride coming and/or going, but I'd suggest a tightly constructed 'camo' trigger for the short.
TLT launched sharply higher from within 8 cents of the 89.47 Hidden Pivot I flagged here two weeks ago. The thrust generated a strong impulse leg on the intraday charts and established a trigger for a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=90.61). Friday's low at 90.62 missed by a penny, but the signal will remain viable. The implied 89.37 stop-loss is too wide to be practical, so I suggest using a 'camo' trigger to get long. That means dropping to the 15-minute chart or less when 90.61 is touched and fashioning a reverse-pattern set-up with a corresponding entry trigger.
The small poke through our longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 3040.90 implies prices will continue higher, notwithstanding occasional shakedowns by the sleazeball who control bullion markets. Although I recently billboarded an ambitious target at 3533 to lift your imagination, a more immediate prospect is 3198.70, the 'D' target of a smaller pattern. A pullback to 2932.80 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but the 2844.00 stop-loss is unacceptably large. Use a 'camouflage' trigger for this one, meaning an entry set-up crafted from 15-minute charts or lower once 2932.80 has been touched.
The slight dip beneath the 54.84 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown implies more retracement is needed to set up the next big push to a presumptive 60.62. The first place you could look for a turn is 54.44, a minor support given here last week. Beneath it lies prospective support at p2=53.44, the 'secondary' pivot; or a worst-case 52.03. There are two additional bull-market targets that I mentioned here earlier. They lie, respectively, at 72.73 and 111.59.
Bitcoin has gone nowhere since I predicted a fall to at least 68,233, or possibly 54,848. I'm going to substitute a less dramatic scenario, since I expect this symbol to rally along with the broad averages in the weeks ahead. Accordingly, you can use the 80,212 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart as a worst-case downside target for the new week. It can be bottom-fished aggressively with a stop-loss at 79,890.
The Trump wild card has made it especially difficult to bet on the stock market. Even cynics can't say for sure that his radical agenda will not eventually produce an economic golden era capable of pushing the Dow average to 100,000 or higher. In just two short months, the president has crushed wokeness and racial quotas, enabling most Americans to feel good about themselves for the first time since the 1950s. And although fraud and corruption in government will always be with us because that's where the money is, it's possible Trump has returned America to a path that will reinvigorate just leadership and honest institutions that we can be proud of. As for the tariffs, they are arguably the only medicine strong enough to jolt the world into doing honest business. The kicker is that they cannot but entice foreign manufacturers to expand their operations in the U.S. (If you have read this far and TDS rage has begun to churn your stomach, here's some advice: Blow it out your shorts.) The graph above is intended as a do-it-yourself tool for gauging the power of the bear rally that began on March 13. The implication is that no short-squeeze will exceed the 5976.00 target (4) of the pattern shown. If it does, then permabears had better not get in the way of the thrust to new record highs that is likely to follow. I have drawn the chart according to the proprietary rules of the Hidden Pivot Method. This picture exhibits a 'reverse ABCD pattern' that I have watched in action 100,000 times and studied for nearly 30 years. Trust me, it works. Pattern Is 'Confirmed' Its accuracy and reliability were confirmed last week when the booster stage of the presumptive bear rally stalled precisely at 5768 (2), a
