I'd said the weekly chart shown could serve as a road map for the next couple of weeks, and that is still the case. This is notwithstanding the fact that the dipsy-doodle of the last two weeks did not quite come down to the 35.946 midpoint Hidden Pivot support where we'd intended to do some buying. The pivot is sill valid for bottom-fishing, although the failure of sellers to push the September contract down to it is bullish enough to suggest that the 'c' high (39.910) is a slightly less than even bet to get exceeded. The best way to get ahead of the action is to follow it on the hourly chart. Here it is, and it implies the first place we might attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing would be at p=37.770. I have masked the 'a' and 'b' coordinates for proprietary reasons, but you can figure them out by working backward from the target. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 2:36 p.m.): It's no fun playing to an empty house, so let's hear some applause from those of you who bought down at 37.770 as I'd explicitly advised. Here's how the chart linked above evolved, producing a theoretical profit so far of $1,400 per contract.
This proxy for gold exploration stocks has had quite a run-up this year. Most recently it exceeded a 72.23 target first disseminated here a long time ago. To come up with a higher projection, I had to shift the point 'A' low from 2020's watershed bottom at 19.62 to the 16.87 low recorded in January 2016. This allows GDXJ a little more running room, but not much. The pattern is extremely gnarly, but it is also the only logical extension possible. That is why you should pay close heed if the uptrend continues into August.
Bitcoin remains on-track for a fall to at least p=105,762, but it is not going quietly into the night. The slight weakness of the last several months triggered a theoretical sell signal at x=114,496, The green line), but bears are having difficulty pushing it down to that level. That would be an opportune spot to attempt bottom-fishing, but we may have to abandon the project if another week does not bring a close below 114,496. Concerning the sell signal, I am not willing to risk nearly $9000 on the textbook stop just above c=123,231, and so the only way to get aboard, with entry risk capped at perhaps $700 or less, would be by way of a signal on an intraday chart. I will send out an alert if an ‘easy’ trade develops.
TLT's performance over the last four years has grown increasingly painful to watch, and there are no clear signs this is about to end. In fact, a little more downside remains to complete the pattern shown to D=80.84. Alternatively, I'd need to see an uncorrected thrust above both of the circled peaks to infer that an important reversal is under way. Barring that, we should assume that more downside to at least 80.84 awaits; or if any lower, to 74.79 (! ) (Weekly chart, A= 108.87 on 4/7/23). _______ UPDATE (Aug 22): You can chase boredom by monitoring TLT's passage along the route of the reverse pattern shown. p=86.91 is a good place to bottom-fish by scalping options or the underlying, but we'll also be able to use the pattern to gauge trend strength, such as it is. ________ UPDATE (Aug 31): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
You've got to hand it to DaBoyz for reviving Apple as a 'wealth'-effect dynamo. The company couldn't innovate its way out of a wet paper bag, and it doesn't even have a horse in the AI race. And yet, the stock recently lurched back to life, emulating those two bull-market superstars, Microsoft and Nvidia. Indeed, any investor who held shares in the company last week, including Vanguard, BlackRock, Berkshire Hathaway and approximately 25,000 other lucky investors, became significantly wealthier on paper without lifting a finger. Rising sharply on gap openings last Wednesday and Thursday (see chart), and on a nasty short-squeeze Friday for good measure, the Cupertino-based seller of iPhones added nearly $500 billion to the world's store of illusory wealth. The Element of Surprise As I've explained here before, almost no stock changes hands on gap openings, and what little actual buying occurs comes almost entirely from short covering. In this instance, AAPL ended last Tuesday's session at around $203 per share. Then news came out after the close that they had sold quite a few more iPhones than benighted analysts had expected. It didn't matter that the flurry of phone-buying could have been a one-time effect caused by consumers trying to get ahead of new tariffs. All that was needed to goose AAPL skyward was the element of surprise. After the earnings beat, the stock's clever handlers lost no time working their levitation scam. By simply pulling their offers overnight and on Wednesday's opening, they enabled panicked bears to do all the lifting into a supply vacuum. Rotation Is Costless It's easy to underestimate the crooks who ply this game. Although we know they routinely rotate money from one sector to the next to push stocks higher with relatively small outlays, we sometimes overlook that they can top
I'd said odds were remote that The Mother of All Tops is in, but last week's dive from just above a middling Hidden Pivot target has altered the picture. The move was impulsive, since it breached two 'external' lows on the daily chart. Moreover, it is bearish that the futures rallied only weakly after dipping slightly beneath the moree important low, a 6241.00 bottom recorded on July 16. Now it's a 300-point fall to the next structural support, a whipsaw bottom at 5959 recorded on June 23. That's where the futures should be presumed headed if selling picks up steam this week, as I expect. Any rally would be a tempting short, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance.
Greed got the better last week of the sleazeballs who manipulate this stock for a living. They gapped MSFT 40 points on Thursday's earning's beat, but the move was too ambitious to sustain, and MSFT came down hard. As a result, there was little opportunity to distribute stock at or near the top. It will also have left buyers with a bad taste, and they will pose a serious obstacle when DaBoyz attempt to re-levitate the software maker's shares for distribution. The selloff looks likely to hit 493.67 before MSFT can turn around, so you should plan on doing some tightly stopped bottom-fishing there (weekly, a= 468.35 on 7/5). If that midpoint Hidden Pivot support fails, more slippage to as low as 431.89 would become likely.
Friday's lurch higher easily penetrated the 3344 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown, implying the uptrend will continue to at least 3425.40. Since the rally ended the day just beneath our sweet spot for setting up mechanical trades, I would strongly recommend tightly stopped bottom-fishing on a pullback to x=3304.30 (the green line). If you get on board and make a few bucks on the way up, use a portion of your profits to cushion a stop-loss from 3425.40.
Use the Hidden Pivot levels shown to trade the futures in the weeks ahead. That implies you can: 1) bottom-fish at 35.946; 2) get short 'mechanically' on a rally to x=37.928, provided p=35.946 has been exceeded to the downside; 3) bottom-fish at p2=33.964; and 4) bottom-fish even more aggressively at d=31.982. As always, a decisive penetration of p would imply more slippage to d, at least. I've obscured the point 'a' high for proprietary reasons, but you can find it yourself by working backward from the target.
The stock market is priced for perfection in a grotesquely imperfect world. Trump provided a fleeting respite by showing us how the Art of the Deal works in trade negotiations. Fox News rightly rubbed the legacy media’s face in his success while the President took a half-dozen victory laps to muted global applause. This may turn out to be more than he deserves, since no one can predict what will come of the new taxes that have been imposed on global trade. Because eggheads, editorialists and Bloomberg’s talking heads have no deep understanding of tariffs, here’s an interesting thought from someone who does — Reagan budget director David Stockman. The point he makes is too basic to ignore: If capitalism is truly free and functioning, he points out, America doesn’t need a dealmaker in the White House. Affordability is our big problem anyway, as the nation’s erstwhile middle class continues to sink into poverty. Nearly everything we buy has become not merely expensive, but too expensive, particularly big-ticket items like homes and automobiles. The average price of a used car hit $32,000, up from $23,000 just three years ago. It can cost $400 or more to take a family to a ballgame, where a hot dog and a beer are now $25. The $9.99 breakfast special in Las Vegas has risen to $29.99. And if shrinkflation at the supermarket gets any worse, we’ll be buying staples by the gram rather than the ounce. Putin’s Hole Cards Inflation will not be the worst of our problems if the Ukraine war takes a turn for the worse. Putin is Trump’s only equal in global power and influence, and he will not bend to Trump’s ultimatums like the pantywaists
