Buyers ripped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=96.42) of the pattern shown with such force on Friday that there can be zero doubt where they are taking this vehicle, an ETF proxy for the long bond. The 105.49 target looks all but certain to be achieved, presumably within the next 5-7 weeks. A move of such magnitude would equate to a fall in long-term rates to 3.64% [restated from 3.67% to correct Tradestation glitch) from a current 4.11%. This will not be caused by anything the Fed does, but by the recession the banksters have kept at bay with massive quantities of funny money even when they supposedly were tightening. Another potential source of lift could come from a stampede into safety precipitated by the sight of a mushroom cloud billowing over some G-d-forsaken city or nation. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31): The spearing of 'p' earlier this month still makes TLT a good bet to reach the 105.49 rally target -- eventually. For now, though, buyers will need to screw up their courage as T-bonds weather gale-force headwinds caused by the prodigious borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury. A nearly 5% drop to the green line (x=87.34) looks increasingly likely before deep recession intercedes with what no one will call 'relief'. Here's the chart.
Friday's plunge through the red line (p=103.60) means the Dollar Index will fall to at least 102.40 before it can attempt to find traction. That would put it even with an important low recorded last March, but any further slippage, especially if sharp, would be signaling a plunge toward the 100.62 low notched in the final days of 2023. Here's a longer-term chart, however, that shows a path all the way down to 93.78. That nearly unthinkable target is precisely confirmed by the bounce off p=100.57, and its attainment would become an odds-on bet if DXY closes for two consecutive weeks below p. _______ UPDATE (Aug 9, 2:02 p.m.): The dollar has bounced modestly from 102.16, just 24 cents below the minimum downside target given above. When the rally fails as I expect it to, look for more weakness into the range 99.58-100.57, between two key lows on the daily chart that occurred, respectively, on July 19 and December 28. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16): As anticipated above, the dollar has turned lower yet again, presumably bound for the 99.58-100.57 range noted. If you trade off this vehicle, please note that DXY will have a chance to bounce from exactly 101.26, a Hidden Pivot derived from the 240-minute chart, where A= 104.45 on 8/1.
The selloff begun on July 16 tripped a second 'mechanical' buy signal, this time on the weekly chart. The implication is that the September contract will rally to at least p=75564.6without first dipping beneath the pattern's 'C' low at 5267.75. However, there are no guarantees that any rebound will reach the D target at 5881.60, If this holds true, the bull market begun in 2009 would be over. That's my gut feeling, but we'll wait to see whether DaBoyz can turn things around with the benefit of a green-line (x) 'buy' trigger that they don't even know exists. In the meantime, you can use a presumably gratuitous feint below 'C' to get long, but the theoretical trigger interval of 43-points would require risk-reduction tactics based on a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:52 a.m. EDT): The breach of so clear and compelling a target as d=5168.75 offers persuasive evidence that the current, manic bounce is just a bear rally and a distributive fraud. Plan accordingly, and don't get sucked by whatever Wall Street's cud-chewing shills spew in the days and weeks ahead.
With the broad averages falling hard last week, this shiny hoax barely flinched. That's because any Robin Hoodie sellers are just small potatoes compared to institutional players who have relatively little skin in the game but still enjoy talking their book. Accordingly, I've updated the bullish chart that has accompanied touts for this symbol in recent months. Bertie will need to fist-pump past p=71,394, however, to make D=89,029 an odds-on bet._______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 12:25 p.m. EDT): Like most of the symbols I track, Bertie's death dive this week exceeded my short-term expectations. The longer-term picture going back to January is still bullish, but I've lowered my projection to 84,634. For now, though, we'll focus on less ambitious targets, most immediately the 57,840 Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance of this pattern. If bitcoin is going to the moon, it should be able to get past this number easily and hold above it. Somewhat higher lies another obstacle, the 66,998 midpoint resistance of the big pattern projecting to 84,634. We'll monitor these two numbers closely in order to judge whether Bertie's rally is on-track for new record highs.
Last week's strong start laid an egg as expected, leaving yet more paint to dry on an indisputably bullish picture. The constipated price action cries out for a swoon beneath the three lows near 2330 that have occurred since April just to clear the air. We'd be 'voodoo' buyers down near 2351 in any case, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking the futures would do us such a kindness. In the meantime, they remain tradable on intraday signals that have been plentiful, even in bullion's increasingly tedious holding pattern. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.
Subscribers evidently made hay with a 27.41 correction target I'd flagged here that caught the low of a nearly $2 bounce within four cents. So now what? The bounce wasn't quite sufficient to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, so any trading opportunities in either direction will necessarily come from the intraday charts. My hunch is that a next buy signal will materialize with a dip into the 'discomfort' zone bounded by prior lows at, respectively, 27.45 (7/29) and 26.55 (5/2). ______ UPDATE (Aug 9, 1:50 p.m.): Another bullseye: Last week's low at 26.505 occurred in the exact middle of the range I'd flagged above. Spartacus was the only subscriber to mention this, but please let me know in the chat room if you used the forecast (as he evidently did) to get long near the bottom. If I hear from enough of you, I will establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (Aug 11, 2:25 a.m.): Assuming you are long four contracts from around 26.51, take profits on half at 27.80, then deploy an 'impulsive' stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. This implies stopping yourself out of the remainder of the position if a plunge exceeds two prior lows without an upward correction. At the moment, this would locate the stop-loss at 26.970, just beneath the 'external' low recorded on August 8 at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Make this order o-c-o with a single-contract offered to close at 28.610. _______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Profit-taking has lowered our cost basis to 25.22 for the two contracts that remain. Continue to offer one of them to close at 28.61, tying both to an o-c-o stop-loss at 27.280. ______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 2:33 a.m. EDT): Raise the stop-loss to 27.50. _______ UPDATE (Aug 15, 3:24 a.m.): Subscribers who exited on the stop suggested above
September Crude loitered for four days at a 76.26 Hidden Pivot correction target identified here earlier, then crushed it with a running dive that followed a vicious head-fake. The subsequent low occurred almost precisely at the too-obvious trendline shown. Since every oil trader in the galaxy will have used this feature to bottom-fish, it is unlikely to work precisely. However, sellers are going to have difficulty turning such a compelling 'structural' support to mush, so look for oil's so-far 12% slide to end hereabouts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 12:35 p.m.): The slide did not end at the support. Is oil perhaps discounting the possibility that the stock market's plunge has set in motion an economic collapse?
The futures bounced last Thursday from within a hair of the green line (x=5421.21), triggering a textbook 'mechanical' buy within a very un-textbook ABCD pattern. It's a credible signal, however, given the initial hesitation at the red line on the way up, and the stall precisely at p2=5728.14. Even so, I am wary of the possibility that this so-far moderate bounce will fail to achieve the D target at 5881.60, effectively ending the bull market begun in 2009. The September contract is a lead-pipe cinch to reach p, though, so we'll put further speculation aside and focus on trading the remaining 75 points of 'ceertain' upside.
While the broad averages were getting pounded last week, bitcoin's deft handlers were displaying the kind of brash confidence that all but guarantees significantly higher prices -- and soon, especially if stocks continue to recover. Use p=71,394 as a minimum upside projection for the near term, and expect this hoax to punch through this Hidden Pivot with little difficulty. That would shorten the odds of a finishsing stroke to the 89,029 target flagged here earlier.
September Silver took a tentative bounce from the launcher last Thursday, but it will need to close above the pink line at 28.82 to be considered airborne. The reverse pattern shown is both compelling and obscure, so d=27.41 stood to work precisely. Is the reversal from 14 cents above that Hidden Pivot sufficiently precise to infer the downtrend is spent? Probably. But if the futures relapse this week, be ready to bottom-fish voodoo 27.05 with a trigger interval as tight as a dime. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 6:13 p.m.): The futures relapsed, all right, but only enough to get them even closer to my 27.41 target. Is the new low at 27.45 close enough? The question is no longer worth pondering, but you should be long if you used the suggested trigger interval, with a partial profit from the 60-cent move that has occurred so far.
