There are no appealing reverse patterns for predicting how much higher the next thrust will go above the record 6468.50 achieved on July 31. However, the conventional ABCD pattern shown suggests the move could stall at a minor target at 6435.50. Instead of trying to get short there, I'll suggest doing so at 6447.75, a voodoo number that is unlikely to be on the radar of the bozos and algos we presume to trade against. We'll use the tightest possible stop-loss I can craft, based on a 3.0-point trigger interval from within 1.00 point of the voodoo target. If you are unfamiliar with this tactic, you should paper-trade it. If and when ES blows past the old high, we'll have some reverse (rABC) patterns to work with to help forecast this gas-bag with tight precision.
No change in last week's outlook. The stock has tripped a conventional sell signal that portends more downside over the next 6-8 days to at least p=493.67. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a large, bearish rABC pattern projecting to as low as d=431.89. Regardless, p looks like it will be an opportune spot to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. As always, a decisive breach of the midpoint would shorten the odds of more slippage to the D/d target.
Gold went all nitwitty at week's end on tariff news that threatened to disrupt the placid and predictable ho-hummery of the last four months. On the daily chart, the move looks like just another peak to add to a series of three highs that have contained rallies since May. However, a closer inspection reveals that the new peak slightly exceeded the others. This means that gold has broken out, and although we shouldn't be surprised if it slips back into its accustomed wallow, we should treat a pullback as a corrective set-up for another leg up. Let's be ready to bottom-fish at 3410.70 just in case, since that is a midpoint Hidden Pivot support (a=3478.50 on 7/23) where a turn-up would be most likely to occur. A reverse-pattern trigger is preferable for entry, but you shouldn't need a stop-loss wider than 1.50 points. ________ UPDATE (11:13 p.m. EDT): A 1.50-point stop-loss would have gotten tagged shortly after sellers hit the red line, but a reverse-pattern trigger generated an entry signal at 3407.40 and a profitable exit on half at 3412.20 (60m, a=3418.00 on 8/8/). You're on your own if you're still in the trade, but don't be greedy, since the decisive breach of p was bearish. ______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 10:26 a.m.): Gold is being made to look like garbage by sovereign buyers and bullion bankers who want it most. Most immediately, expect this manufactured plunge to hit 3317.70, a well-masked Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with a tight reverse trigger.
I'd said the weekly chart shown could serve as a road map for the next couple of weeks, and that is still the case. This is notwithstanding the fact that the dipsy-doodle of the last two weeks did not quite come down to the 35.946 midpoint Hidden Pivot support where we'd intended to do some buying. The pivot is sill valid for bottom-fishing, although the failure of sellers to push the September contract down to it is bullish enough to suggest that the 'c' high (39.910) is a slightly less than even bet to get exceeded. The best way to get ahead of the action is to follow it on the hourly chart. Here it is, and it implies the first place we might attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing would be at p=37.770. I have masked the 'a' and 'b' coordinates for proprietary reasons, but you can figure them out by working backward from the target.
This proxy for gold exploration stocks has had quite a run-up this year. Most recently it exceeded a 72.23 target first disseminated here a long time ago. To come up with a higher projection, I had to shift the point 'A' low from 2020's watershed bottom at 19.62 to the 16.87 low recorded in January 2016. This allows GDXJ a little more running room, but not much. The pattern is extremely gnarly, but it is also the only logical extension possible. That is why you should pay close heed if the uptrend continues into August.
Bitcoin remains on-track for a fall to at least p=105,762, but it is not going quietly into the night. The slight weakness of the last several months triggered a theoretical sell signal at x=114,496, The green line), but bears are having difficulty pushing it down to that level. That would be an opportune spot to attempt bottom-fishing, but we may have to abandon the project if another week does not bring a close below 114,496. Concerning the sell signal, I am not willing to risk nearly $9000 on the textbook stop just above c=123,231, and so the only way to get aboard, with entry risk capped at perhaps $700 or less, would be by way of a signal on an intraday chart. I will send out an alert if an ‘easy’ trade develops.
TLT's performance over the last four years has grown increasingly painful to watch, and there are no clear signs this is about to end. In fact, a little more downside remains to complete the pattern shown to D=80.84. Alternatively, I'd need to see an uncorrected thrust above both of the circled peaks to infer that an important reversal is under way. Barring that, we should assume that more downside to at least 80.84 awaits; or if any lower, to 74.79 (! ) (Weekly chart, A= 108.87 on 4/7/23)
I'd said odds were remote that The Mother of All Tops is in, but last week's dive from just above a middling Hidden Pivot target has altered the picture. The move was impulsive, since it breached two 'external' lows on the daily chart. Moreover, it is bearish that the futures rallied only weakly after dipping slightly beneath the moree important low, a 6241.00 bottom recorded on July 16. Now it's a 300-point fall to the next structural support, a whipsaw bottom at 5959 recorded on June 23. That's where the futures should be presumed headed if selling picks up steam this week, as I expect. Any rally would be a tempting short, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance.
Greed got the better last week of the sleazeballs who manipulate this stock for a living. They gapped MSFT 40 points on Thursday's earning's beat, but the move was too ambitious to sustain, and MSFT came down hard. As a result, there was little opportunity to distribute stock at or near the top. It will also have left buyers with a bad taste, and they will pose a serious obstacle when DaBoyz attempt to re-levitate the software maker's shares for distribution. The selloff looks likely to hit 493.67 before MSFT can turn around, so you should plan on doing some tightly stopped bottom-fishing there (weekly, a= 468.35 on 7/5). If that midpoint Hidden Pivot support fails, more slippage to as low as 431.89 would become likely.
Friday's lurch higher easily penetrated the 3344 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown, implying the uptrend will continue to at least 3425.40. Since the rally ended the day just beneath our sweet spot for setting up mechanical trades, I would strongly recommend tightly stopped bottom-fishing on a pullback to x=3304.30 (the green line). If you get on board and make a few bucks on the way up, use a portion of your profits to cushion a stop-loss from 3425.40.
