Rick’s Picks

Microsoft's deftly engineered short squeeze minutes before the opening bell on Friday slightly exceeded the 516.95 target we'd been using to stay confidently on the right side of a heavily overextended trend. The top was fleeting, volumeless and not just a little sleazy, creating a possible top that could endure for a while. Let's use the green line (x=483.95) as a minimum downside target for now. If it is touched, that would imply more downside to at least p=453.26 (the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support).

A crucial Hidden Pivot support at 83.53 doesn't look long for this world. Last week's dive came within 66 cents of it, but the bounce so far has been too feeble to suggest the uptrend will continue. But bulls would need to exceed July 10's 'external' peak at 87.05 to give this vehicle a fighting chance. I remain convinced, however, that T-Bonds are not far from a bottom despite the fact that Trump has been doing his utmost to turn them into shit. Perhaps it will take a full-blown recession to turn the tide for Treasurys? There doesn't appear to be one in the offing, but that could change quickly if stocks turn down hard for no apparent reason, as they always do at the onset of a bear market. Trump's daily flip-flops on Powell, however, are bullish for stocks, since he doesn't even have to fire the guy to strengthen the perception that tightening will be impossible on his watch.

The pattern shown looks too pretty not to work, and that means the futures are likely to fall to at least p=3276.40 (the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, shown as a red line) before they can attempt to surpass C=3389.30. True, the pattern lacks a one-off-point 'A'. But the well-formed A-B impulse leg, which exceeded two prior 'external' lows, more than compensates for this flaw.  Assuming the correction resumes in earnest this week, 3276.40 will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. Alternatively, if bullion's canny handlers gut my bearish pattern by popping the futures above C=3389.30, I wouldn't get too excited, since gold's rallies have gone nowhere since April.

Bulls continue to lurch toward a 41.060 target while also whittling down a gold:silver ratio that had gotten egregiously out of whack when it poked above 100; it is now around 87.  You should regard the target as extremely likely to be achieved, given the ease with which buyers pushed through the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 34.751. The pattern is gnarly, and there is an alternative to the A-B impulse leg. However, its 'D' target was exceeded, and that's why I've switched to a more elongated A-B with a slightly higher target. Looking just ahead, you can try bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as six cents if the futures come down to 37.37.

I had intended to offer mainly 'mechanical' set-ups for futures contracts when I changed the core list of touts a few weeks ago, since entry instructions for this type of trade are usually relatively simple. However, because I could find no such set-ups on current charts, I am instead offering a reverse-trigger trade in the E-Mini Nasdaq, as follows:  Bottom-fish at the red line (p=23,127) using a trigger interval of 16 points. The low must occur within 4 points of the red line to be valid. If you do not understand this instruction, don't do the trade; there will be other, easier opportunities.  The trade is valid through Tuesday, and only if 23,233 has not been exceeded to the upside.  You'll be on your own if the order fills.  It may be possible to reduce entry risk even further by using a smaller trigger pattern taken from the lesser charts, but that is expert play recommended only to ace Pivoteers. _______ UPDATE (Jul 22, 10:55 a.m. EDT): This vehicle's nutty histrionics have altered the picture, although not the opportunity.  You can bottom-fish at 23,038, using the tightest reverse-pattern trigger you can find on the 15-minute chart. This trade is only for Hidden Pivot aces (aka Pivoteers.)

The easy move through p=115,845 still implies the pattern's 132,652 target will be reached, so we'll stick with it. That means you should trade with a bullish bias until then.  You can also bottom-fish in the not improbable event that Bitcoin swoons to the green line (x=107,442). The textbook stop-loss for the trade would be just below C=99,039, but it's possible to cut entry risk by as much as 95% by using a 'reverse-pattern trigger' fashioned from the 3-  or 5-minute chart.

Bitcoin shredded the 115,846 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown with such easy aplomb that more upside to the 132,652 'D' target is all but certain. The pattern is sufficiently gnarly that we can expect it to work for any and all purposes, including a 'mechanical' buy at x=107,442 (the green line) if BTC should swoon. Also, assuming you've been long on the way up, you can reverse the position and get short a D using a tight stop-loss fashioned with a reverse-pattern trigger on a lesser chart.

There is still little doubt the futures will reach the 6429.00 target identified here earlier. I had suggested buying on a dip to 6244.50, but the weekly low missed touching that number by 1.75 points. This underscores the value of the reverse-pattern setup, since it could have been used to get long ahead of a so-far 90-point rally with just a few points of entry risk. Some subscribers reported boarding near the low nevertheless, and I would suggest maintaining the position with an 'impulsive' stop until 6429.00 is reached.

I went out on a limb recently with a prediction that T-Bonds had made an important low.  Last week's price action in this ETF was hardly reassuring, however. Not only did it breach a midpoint Hidden Pivot support I'd noted at 85.99, it also generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart. Let's give it the slight benefit of the doubt for now, since there are two remaining HP supports to be breached before we throw in the towel. They lie, respectively, at 84.76 (p2) and 83.53 (d).