Rick’s Picks

February Gold has a clear path to at least 4532.70 over the near term, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. Price action there cannot but provide an accurate 'read' on trend strength, as well as a reliable idea of the speed and likelihood of a further rally to the conventional pattern's 'D' target at 5132.20. That is likely to be an important number for gold, and we shouldn't assume the futures will surpass it. That would leave gold well shy of the fantastic heights long predicted for this bull market by some seers.

Silver's ballistic ascent has left it out-of-synch with gold, which looks months away from a potential bull-market top. At the rate Silver is climbing, it could hit a correspondingly important target at 70.810 by Christmas. Since we should always have an alternative target lined up, I would need to create an extension with the C-D leg, shifting 'A' to the November 21 bar whose bottom is 48.710. We'll wait until 70.81 is hit before doing so, but be prepared for a significant (and tradable!) pullback when the target is hit.

The chart shows the entire, insufferable month that Bitcoin speculators have spent jerking off, all of it in the context of a bear market that has lopped 36% from the value of the cryptocurrency so far. The closest downside target lies at p=81,163, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a 'D' target at 67,685.  That last number is my worst case for the next 2-3 weeks. There is another Hidden Pivot at 73,076 mentioned here earlier that could provide support, possibly just temporary.

I seldom use a 'marquee' low to project a target, but in this case, A= 3933.20 caught Friday's spike high almost exactly. The high overshot the target by $4.30, which is not enough to guarantee that higher prices are coming. They will, though, so let's keep this chart in mind as the futures make their way higher in the days and weeks ahead. It implies minimum upside over the near term to the red line (p=4532.70, the pattern's Hidden Pivot midpoint), and to as high as D=5132.20, a target that will become an odds-on bet if bulls bulldoze past p. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 5:09 p.m.): Check the chat room for my latest updates, targets and tradable ideas.

Friday's punitive reversal breached p=61.910 decisively, so the yellow flag is out. A tradable implication is that a rally now to the green line (x=63.497) would trigger a 'mechanical' short.  The pattern could also prove useful for bottom-fishing the decline using the lesser charts to set up 'camo' triggers at p2=60.322 and d=58.735.  We should also be alert to a possible breach of d. Although I don't expect it, that would signal a potentially bigger correction than the $6.35 selloff I warned about in the trading room. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 10:04 a.m.): Silver has uncorked yet another powerful rally -- as usual, without having fully corrected to a minor 'd' target. In this case, d=58.735, but the futures went no lower than 61.105. The upward reversal also made short work of the 'mechanical' short suggested above after failing by 20 cents to fall to a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 61.910 where the short could have been covered, at least partially,'by the book'.  The cautionary numbers noted above still obtain, meaning that a $6.35 correction is still overdue, and that a $1.58 drop would signal its onset. In any case, using a smaller, conventional pattern yields minimum upside over the near term to at least 69.250 (daily chart, A=56.850 on 12/4). A pullback first to x=63.074 off the current so-far high (66.650) would trigger a very opportune, 'mechanical' buy.

With its weak point 'A' low and its obviousness, the pattern shown should not be considered reliable for predicting a precise top. However, it can still serve us in several ways. For one, the easy move through p has shortened the odds of a rally to at least D=135.90. Also, a pullback to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy sufficiently enticing that we should not want to miss it.  And if p2=123.76 shows stopping power, that would validate the pattern itself and its target. ______ UPDATE (Dec 20): Bulls further distanced this vehicle from the red line last week, increasing the likelihood that the 135.90 target will be achieved.  A pullback to the green line (x=99.49) in the meantime, however unlikely, should be viewed as an opportunity to get long or to augment an existing position 'mechanically'. 

I hesitate to call Bitcoin's laborious 36% selloff from the $126k top in mid-October a correction, since there's a good chance it's in a bear market and that it will never exceed that high. That will almost surely be the case if stocks have entered a bear market. It would likely be the worst since the 1930s, creating an investment environment in which a purely speculative hobgoblin such as Bitcoin could never survive, let alone flourish. Trump's MAGA narrative would also be a casualty, since merely scraping by, rather than achieving greatness, would become the central concern of most Americans.  Regarding the weekly chart that I've displayed this week, it leaves little room for doubt that Bitcoin's selloff will continue down to at least d=73,076. Moreover, a rally from current levels to as high as the green line (x=112,993) would trigger a 'mechanical' short, presumably amidst high-fiving by Bitcoin fans excited by the possibility of new record highs. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 5:13 p.m.): I've posted some finely nuanced downside targets in the chat room that are actionable. Check 'em out!

The futures looked so heavy on Friday that I was tempted to switch to a bearish, big-picture chart that requires a drop to 6654 to trigger a theoretical sell signal.  Instead, I've focused on a smaller time frame that can give us a more nuanced picture without the drama. The midpoint Hidden Pivot at 6864.25 will not likely be useful for bottom-fishing because it coincides with Friday's low. However, we can still monitor price action closely at p2=6838.00 and D=6812.00 closely to determine whether bears might be gaining the upper hand. An easy breach of D on first contact would be evidence of this, so be alert to the possibility.

T-Bonds have been treading water since Trump took office. His eagerness to stimulate growth with a gusher of fiscal spending and consumer credit has increasingly weighed on fixed-income markets. However, this has been more or less offset by the President's ability to attract buyers of Treasury debt from outside the U.S.  The chart says this precarious balance is about to end with a fall in bond prices and a corresponding rise in long-term yields. At a minimum, TLT is headed down to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 78.05. If yields on the long bond were to rise commensurately, they would hit 5.33%, up from a current 4.79%. That might not seem like much, but it would squeeze the last breath from a consumer economy already suffocating from debt fatigue and persistent inflation. The already shaky housing and auto sectors would collapse, presumably led by a stock market that is filled mostly with hot air. Nor are there any guarantees that the red line on the chart will hold. If it doesn't, and TLT falls to the next logical plateau at 62.23, the damage this would do to the U.S. economy and to our way of life is distressing to imagine. Any spike in rates would be short-lived, since it would quickly deflate the economy into deep recession. Since this would be fundamentally a deleveraging event, investors should not be looking for opportunities at this moment; rather, they should secure their capital in safe-haven assets such as Treasury paper, bullion and utility companies with strong dividend histories. The burgeoning healthcare sector's ability to withstand hard times is not a given, since it thrives now only on the illusion of prosperity. _______ UPDATE (Dec 14): Friday's vicious reversal, which featured the gap-down penetration of a 'hidden' midpoint support,