The dollar picked up no support on the way down through p=103.33, but that does not necessarily portend another failure when it reaches the 'D' Hidden Pivot support at 101.03. However, the seven days of distribution that have occurred since the drop from p to p2 have likely tilted the odds toward a breach of D. If a decisive one occurs, use 100.18 as a new minimum downside projection. That is the D target, on the daily chart, of A=113.15 on November 3.
A 41.17 target first signaled more than four months ago with GDXJ trading under 30, looks all but certain to be reached this week. As slow as it was in coming, it was never in doubt after buyers gapped GDXJ past p=33.49 on Nov 9. Adding to the picture of strength was the absence of any pullbacks sufficient to trigger a 'mechanical' entry of daily-chart degree. Now we can expect a further ascent to at least p=49.02, a midpoint Hidden Pivot correlated with a 'D' target at 72.73 (!). As always an easy move through any of the levels in this pattern can be taken as a sign that the uptrend will continue. We'll look for low-risk boarding spots along the way for subscribers seeking either to augment long positions or initiate new ones.
AAPL's sucker rally has come from a technically inconvenient place somewhat above an authoritative trendline, but this only mildly diminishes the likelihood the stock will revisit the lows and test them unsuccessfully enough to reach the line. In the meantime, though, we should be ready to exploit a rally to around 145, where a second trendline with presumptive stopping power comes in. More immediately, the hourly chart says full speed ahead to at least 136.77 (A=124.76 on Jan 5) over the near term. You can short there with a vertical put spread expiring within 4-9 days, but check the chat room for more-specific guidance if the opportunity looks close. ______ UPDATE (January 17, 10:35 p.m. EST): Subscribers reported buying the Jan 20 132/130 put spread for around 0.20. For now, offer half of them for 0.45, good-till-canceled.
The dollar's steep correction since late September will have three good chances to bottom in the weeks ahead, respectively at 101.82 (0.04 from Sunday' night's low), 101.03 or 100.18. That last Hidden Pivot support comes from the largest ABCD pattern shown in the chart (thumbnail inset) and should be familiar to those of you who have been following my Dollar Index forecasts. It seems the most likely of the three pivots to produce an important low, although the two Hidden Pivots above it will be tradeable for bounces, at least, via tightly stopped bids.
The option trade in USO that I advised ahead of last week's rally in crude paid off at as much as 5-to-1, even for subscribers who got hosed initially by paying the 0.49 I'd advised for a vertical call spread. This demonstrates yet again how forgiving ''mechanical' entries are. Let's stick with the same bullish rABC pattern to signal any further opportunities as Feb Crude ascends to as high as D=87.43 in the weeks ahead. That could mean initiating another 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=74.59), but it will depend on how things play out as the new week gets rolling.
Buyers handled the 1907.10 Hidden Pivot resistance with ease, then closed comfortably above the 1910 top of a daunting supply zone created when gold was distributed in May and June ahead of a $200 downdraft. This all but guarantees more robust upside, presumably with a test of $2000 that has beckoned since last spring. We can trade the rally as low-risk opportunities arise, the first of which could come from a small peak (i.e., look-to-the-lefter) at 1943.70 recorded in late April.
Silver has yet to confirm gold's breakout last week above a key Hidden Pivot target at 1907.10, but this feat will be hard to avoid, given the power of gold's decisive move through heavy supply and close above it. We'll let the chart continue to tell the story in any event, but an eventual, decisive move through D=24.95 would put the March contract on course for a presumptive test of last spring's dual peaks at, respectively, 26.86 (April 18) and 27.15 (March 8).
TLT ended the week stalled at the 107.65 midpoint pivot of a conventional bullish pattern projecting to 115.87. We'll need to see a decisive push past the pivot -- or better yet, a two-day close above it -- before we assume the target will be reached. In the meantime, a bid can be placed at 103.54, stop 99.42, to get long using a promising 'mechanical' trigger. The trade would offer somewhat better odds if the pullback were to come from our sweet spot midway between p and p2.
This doomed short squeeze will face no challenge until it hits the 21,288 'external' peak shown. The rally probably has enough momentum to get past it, but that would do little to allay my skepticism that Bertie is going anywhere. A 'voodoo number just above 22,000 is where we might try to get short, via an rABC trigger that would risk perhaps 10-15 points on a stop-loss. However, if buyers get past that level easily, they would likely be on their way to 24,000, another place where we can attempt to get short with a penny-ante stop-loss. Stay tuned to the chat room or 'Notifications' for more-precise guidance if an opportunity should arise. ______ UPDATE (Jan 18): Bitcoin's unsustainably steep bear rally is rumored to have been driven by sovereign demand from the U.S., Canada and the Philippines to meet the ransom demands of whoever hacked their air traffic systems recently. This can't end well.
Skepticism toward the rally begun in November blurred my vision for a while, but last week's sunburst turned the intermediate-term picture too bright to ignore. It tripped a conventional buy signal at the green line with sufficient brio to suggest a further run-up to at least p=107.38, or even D=115.33. It is the interaction between buyers and those Hidden Pivot resistances that can tell us whether the rally is just getting warmed up -- i.e., whether the brutal bear market begun in March 2020 is finally over. Stay tuned, because I will be tracking this chart more diligently in the weeks ahead. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 6:45 p.m.): A strong, three-day rally has stalled almost precisely at the crucial, 107.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance flagged above. As always, a decisive move past it would portend more upside to the (slightly adjusted) D target at 115.36.
