The 28.455 target of the reverse pattern shown started out as my worst-case correction target, but now it is probably the best we can hope for. The initial downside penetration of p=31.763 was decisive but not sufficient to make the d target a lock-up. It still isn't, but there's at least a 75% chance the futures will get there. The good news is that bottom-fishing at 28.455 is likely to produce a profit, even if the pattern is too obvious to engender a bounce precisely from that number, a Hidden Pivot support. If you're keen on getting short for the remainder of the ride, I suggest using rABC patterns on the hourly chart to set up 'mechanical' entry triggers. If you're curious about how this is done, stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.
GDXJ likely has further to fall, since it has been routinely exceeding the d targets of minor ABC patterns. It will have a chance to turn from 42.52, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, on the weekly chart, of a=51.92 (4-22-22). That will be an opportune spot to attempt bottom-fishing, although the precisely coincident low at 42.51 recorded in early September will make the trade tricky to execute. If it gets stopped out, expect more slippage to 37.18, where you can back up the truck and load it. That is the green line of the big pattern shown in the chart, and it is as pretty a place for 'mechanical' buying as you will find.
The futures rallied somewhat higher than we might have preferred last week, generating a bullish impulse leg in the process. This implies that any sequence of trading strategies we employ should have a bullish component. That would take work, however, requiring us to pay attention to a vehicle that is painful to watch. Crude's price action is animated almost solely by clowns and thieves, so I suggest opting for the no-brainer trade, even if it takes a while to set up with a drop to 65.27 (see inset). That might not occur, but it is still the only trade we should be interested in at the moment -- a no-brainer with excellent odds and risk under very tight control. Plus, it will enable us to avoid taking crude's freakish price action seriously. Considering that this is the biggest commodity market in the world, its rigged behavior is a disgrace to civilization itself.
The Trump waft that began in early September turned into a full-blown short squeeze on Tuesday afternoon as rumor, anecdote and exit polls began to hint of a Trump victory. The rally steepened in after-hours trading and continued to gain altitude until the closing bell on Friday. It projected most immediately to 6130.50, but there is an even higher target at 6200.25 (see inset) that you should use as a minimum upside projection in the days ahead. It is an odds-on bet to be achieved because of the ease with which the 5962.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance was penetrated. I expect a tradable top to form there, but you should be familiar with 'camouflage' triggers if you intend to get short. Stay close to the chat room if you are interested in the trade.
With long-term Treasury rates rising strongly, I've relocated the point 'A' low on my chart to give the move more room. A rally touching 4.56% would max out the pattern shown in the inset. but let's stipulate that TNX must close for two consecutive weeks above that number before we infer that a retest of October 2023's 5% peak is coming. Since 4.55% looks like a promising place to go short, if perhaps only briefly, I'll suggest interpolating the target for use in conjunction with your favorite vehicle for betting on long-term rates.
Gold futures have taken a nasty hit since topping on October 30 within 1.60 of a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target of mine at 2803.40. Even so, the downdraft has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart by exceeding two prior lows. That would occur with a print at 2618.70, but even then, its putative power could be diminished if the bounce from Thursday's low gets a little more loft. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt as the new week begins by assuming a 'mechanical' buy at the red line produces a big winner. The target would be 2940.10 (see inset), and the initial stop-loss would be at 2546.70. Please note that the trade has yet to trigger, since the selloff has gone no lower than 2650.30. Paper-trade this one only if your Hidden Pivot chops are up to snuff. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 12:08 p.m.): This morning's avalanche brought the futures down to the red line, so I'll suggest using a $17 trigger interval to get long. This is bigger than I would prefer, but it will diminish the chance of a false signal. With a so-far low of 2619.20, the 'buy' signal would occur on a 2636.20 print. Your first profit-taking objective would be at p=2653.20, where d=2687.20 (60-min, a=2650.30 on 11/6). This is a paper trade for all but the most intrepid Pivoteers. I am mainly interested in determining whether bullion has topped for the long term. The trade set-up I am suggesting is a good way to answer that question, and a rally that exceeds 'd' would imply the answer is 'no'. Alternatively, if the rally dies at 'p', that would be a very discouraging sign.
With Silver in the throes of a correction about to enter its fourth week, my immediate outlook is cautiously bullish. The December contract has already triggered the bottom-fishing trade advised in December Gold (see above), and made a so-far low at 30.490 that came within 7 cents of stopping out the trade. Rather than tying the two vehicles together, however, we'll adopt a different perspective that implies Silver will fall to the 29.495 target shown in the inset before it can turn around. A decisive breach would imply more slippage to as low as 28.455, a number given earlier as my worst-case correction target.
The 46.71 pivot that served as my worst-case correction target now looks likely to be achieved, since this vehicle had little difficulty taking out a related Hidden Pivot support at 48.93. Earlier, I'd suggested bottom-fishing there, and although the trade still looks enticing, it won't be a piece of cake, since the pivot coincides precisely with a low recorded on October 9 that is likely to attract a crowd. Accordingly I'll suggest using a trigger interval of 73 cents to get long off whatever low occurs. You can reduce that to 8 cents if you took the Advanced Tactics course and know how to calculate the voodoo number at 47.19 and know how the trade works.
Last week's series of gap-up rallies may have seemed impressive, but the move should be regarded as a dead-cat bounce until it starts exceeding 'external' peaks such as the ones shown in the chart. So far, it has exceeded no such peaks, even on the lowly hour chart. This means the rally is not even faintly impulsive. If you want a wake-up call to tell you when the uptrend becomes significant, set a screen alert at 102.99. That's a single tick above the first 'external' peak buyers will encounter on the weekly chart. It was recorded in July 2023 and is almost unnoticeable, but it is technically significant. Alternatively, if TLT relapses below 88.42, look for more downside to at least 81.80 and a worst-case low at 75.19.
Bitcoin is still on a buy signal from 67,379, although the pullback I was looking for to reload has mutated into a lunatic-powered bender. Is Trump more bullish for cryptocurrencies than Harris would have been? Probably not. It's more a case of everything being bullish for bitcoin at the moment. The chart says nothing can prevent it from achieving the 84,634 target shown. Beyond it lies a roundest-of-all-numbers benchmark at $100,000 that every crypto crazy has dreamed about for years, even after prices collapsed in 2022 from a then-record 68,964 to 15,484. Enjoy the show and use my bullish targets to book profits on the way up (and to get short sometimes). However, no matter how high it goes, don't lose sight of the fact that bitcoin has no real value other than to speculators.
