I keep crude on the front page only because it is the largest commodity market in the world. That said, the world's largest commodity market has been doing little but jacking off for more than a year, demonstrating that the main purpose of global markets is...to jack off. What a joke! This would be an embarrassment to all humanity, but for the fact that nothing could embarrass a civilization in which a hit single with the title 'Wet-Assed Pussy' could briefly become the most listened-to pop 'song' in the world of so-called music. The woman responsible for it, Cardi B, probably regards the poobahs at Disney, the SEC and on Capitol Hill as peers -- and not without good reason, since they are all American success stories of one sort or another. The foregoing aside, crude prices cannot be suppressed indefinitely in a geopolitical world that lives, from one day to the next, under a deep purple storm cloud. The traders who have been doing the jacking off in both directions must be close to spent by now, so don't be surprised if the intrepid dirtballs who control this monster spring a nasty trap on scalpers who can't wait to short yet another rinse-and-repeat peak in the low $80s.
Buyers ripped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=96.42) of the pattern shown with such force on Friday that there can be zero doubt where they are taking this vehicle, an ETF proxy for the long bond. The 105.49 target looks all but certain to be achieved, presumably within the next 5-7 weeks. A move of such magnitude would equate to a fall in long-term rates to 3.64% [restated from 3.67% to correct Tradestation glitch) from a current 4.11%. This will not be caused by anything the Fed does, but by the recession the banksters have kept at bay with massive quantities of funny money even when they supposedly were tightening. Another potential source of lift could come from a stampede into safety precipitated by the sight of a mushroom cloud billowing over some G-d-forsaken city or nation. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31): The spearing of 'p' earlier this month still makes TLT a good bet to reach the 105.49 rally target -- eventually. For now, though, buyers will need to screw up their courage as T-bonds weather gale-force headwinds caused by the prodigious borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury. A nearly 5% drop to the green line (x=87.34) looks increasingly likely before deep recession intercedes with what no one will call 'relief'. Here's the chart.
Friday's plunge through the red line (p=103.60) means the Dollar Index will fall to at least 102.40 before it can attempt to find traction. That would put it even with an important low recorded last March, but any further slippage, especially if sharp, would be signaling a plunge toward the 100.62 low notched in the final days of 2023. Here's a longer-term chart, however, that shows a path all the way down to 93.78. That nearly unthinkable target is precisely confirmed by the bounce off p=100.57, and its attainment would become an odds-on bet if DXY closes for two consecutive weeks below p. _______ UPDATE (Aug 9, 2:02 p.m.): The dollar has bounced modestly from 102.16, just 24 cents below the minimum downside target given above. When the rally fails as I expect it to, look for more weakness into the range 99.58-100.57, between two key lows on the daily chart that occurred, respectively, on July 19 and December 28. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16): As anticipated above, the dollar has turned lower yet again, presumably bound for the 99.58-100.57 range noted. If you trade off this vehicle, please note that DXY will have a chance to bounce from exactly 101.26, a Hidden Pivot derived from the 240-minute chart, where A= 104.45 on 8/1.
The selloff begun on July 16 tripped a second 'mechanical' buy signal, this time on the weekly chart. The implication is that the September contract will rally to at least p=75564.6without first dipping beneath the pattern's 'C' low at 5267.75. However, there are no guarantees that any rebound will reach the D target at 5881.60, If this holds true, the bull market begun in 2009 would be over. That's my gut feeling, but we'll wait to see whether DaBoyz can turn things around with the benefit of a green-line (x) 'buy' trigger that they don't even know exists. In the meantime, you can use a presumably gratuitous feint below 'C' to get long, but the theoretical trigger interval of 43-points would require risk-reduction tactics based on a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:52 a.m. EDT): The breach of so clear and compelling a target as d=5168.75 offers persuasive evidence that the current, manic bounce is just a bear rally and a distributive fraud. Plan accordingly, and don't get sucked by whatever Wall Street's cud-chewing shills spew in the days and weeks ahead.
The so-far 14% correction from the record-high 468.35 achieved on July 5 is about to test the support of a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 400.23 (see inset). The 'reverse' pattern from which that number is derived is a very good one for proprietary reasons that I won't go into, but suffice it to say, it will give us a high-confidence "read" on trend strength, as well as precise coordinates for trading with or against the trend at opportune times. For now, please note that a decisive breach of p=400.23 will send this stock down to at least 332.11. That would represent a nearly 30% correction from the top, with no assurance that the worst was over. Let me remind you that I treat Microsoft as my #1 bellwether because the company's subscription revenue model for the Windows operating system and Office suite make the firm's vast revenues as bomb-proof in hard times as could be conceived.
With the broad averages falling hard last week, this shiny hoax barely flinched. That's because any Robin Hoodie sellers are just small potatoes compared to institutional players who have relatively little skin in the game but still enjoy talking their book. Accordingly, I've updated the bullish chart that has accompanied touts for this symbol in recent months. Bertie will need to fist-pump past p=71,394, however, to make D=89,029 an odds-on bet._______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 12:25 p.m. EDT): Like most of the symbols I track, Bertie's death dive this week exceeded my short-term expectations. The longer-term picture going back to January is still bullish, but I've lowered my projection to 84,634. For now, though, we'll focus on less ambitious targets, most immediately the 57,840 Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance of this pattern. If bitcoin is going to the moon, it should be able to get past this number easily and hold above it. Somewhat higher lies another obstacle, the 66,998 midpoint resistance of the big pattern projecting to 84,634. We'll monitor these two numbers closely in order to judge whether Bertie's rally is on-track for new record highs.
Last week's strong start laid an egg as expected, leaving yet more paint to dry on an indisputably bullish picture. The constipated price action cries out for a swoon beneath the three lows near 2330 that have occurred since April just to clear the air. We'd be 'voodoo' buyers down near 2351 in any case, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking the futures would do us such a kindness. In the meantime, they remain tradable on intraday signals that have been plentiful, even in bullion's increasingly tedious holding pattern. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.
Subscribers evidently made hay with a 27.41 correction target I'd flagged here that caught the low of a nearly $2 bounce within four cents. So now what? The bounce wasn't quite sufficient to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, so any trading opportunities in either direction will necessarily come from the intraday charts. My hunch is that a next buy signal will materialize with a dip into the 'discomfort' zone bounded by prior lows at, respectively, 27.45 (7/29) and 26.55 (5/2). ______ UPDATE (Aug 9, 1:50 p.m.): Another bullseye: Last week's low at 26.505 occurred in the exact middle of the range I'd flagged above. Spartacus was the only subscriber to mention this, but please let me know in the chat room if you used the forecast (as he evidently did) to get long near the bottom. If I hear from enough of you, I will establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (Aug 11, 2:25 a.m.): Assuming you are long four contracts from around 26.51, take profits on half at 27.80, then deploy an 'impulsive' stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. This implies stopping yourself out of the remainder of the position if a plunge exceeds two prior lows without an upward correction. At the moment, this would locate the stop-loss at 26.970, just beneath the 'external' low recorded on August 8 at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Make this order o-c-o with a single-contract offered to close at 28.610. _______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Profit-taking has lowered our cost basis to 25.22 for the two contracts that remain. Continue to offer one of them to close at 28.61, tying both to an o-c-o stop-loss at 27.280. ______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 2:33 a.m. EDT): Raise the stop-loss to 27.50. _______ UPDATE (Aug 15, 3:24 a.m.): Subscribers who exited on the stop suggested above
Unlike silver futures, GDXJ has a little farther to go to complete the corrective pattern from the 49.11 high recorded on July 16. An overshoot would raise the possibility of a further correction into the range 40-41, where some important lows were recorded over the last three months. We'll be on edge if this scenario should come to pass, since a breach of the lows would portend additional slippage to around 36, or even to 32. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:35 a.m.): The week opened with a plunge down to 40.26, squarely within the predicted range. However, the breach of d=42.78 on the way down suggests that more weakness and a test of the low lies ahead. It would take a thrust exceeding July 31's external peak at 46.32 to put bulls back in charge.
September Crude loitered for four days at a 76.26 Hidden Pivot correction target identified here earlier, then crushed it with a running dive that followed a vicious head-fake. The subsequent low occurred almost precisely at the too-obvious trendline shown. Since every oil trader in the galaxy will have used this feature to bottom-fish, it is unlikely to work precisely. However, sellers are going to have difficulty turning such a compelling 'structural' support to mush, so look for oil's so-far 12% slide to end hereabouts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 12:35 p.m.): The slide did not end at the support. Is oil perhaps discounting the possibility that the stock market's plunge has set in motion an economic collapse?
