Three successive, marginally higher tops in the last three months have made this vehicle more than a little tiresome. The futures will need to come down to at least p=2352.00 of this latest, bullish pattern before we can get a confident read on how long the tedium might last before gold blasts off toward 3000. We might be able to determine trend strength accurately as early as Monday or Tuesday by looking at patterns going in either direction on the lesser charts, so stay tuned.
A full correction to the 27.41 'd' target shown would be a back-up-the- truck buying opportunity that could be initiated with a tight stop-loss. We should be alert to the possibility, however, that the retracement will fall somewhat shy of d before reversing. A logical 'fooler' spot for a reversal would be from near 28.11, the midway point between p2 and d. A second possibility would be a turn from around 27.72, midway between the last two prior lows. In any case, I expect sellers to bring the futures down below the 28.90 low from June 28 before a turnaround can occur.
Friday's decisive breach of the 45.95 midpoint support of the reverse pattern shown implies the correction is likely to hit d=42.78 before it ends. GDXJ did run back up to p at the close, but the fact that it still settled below this Hidden Pivot can only be read as a negative. A retracement rally to x=47.53 would generate a textbook mechanical short, so don't pass up the opportunity if it materializes. The 'd' target can be bottom-fished if and when GDXJ gets there, but the obviousness of the pattern, even though it's a reverse, will work against a precise turn.
This chart, with a 5823.00 target, looks more reliable than the one displayed here last week. It projected a 5879 top, but let's see how buyers fare at the lower target before we try to get a read on trend strength. A pullback to the green line (x=5582.75) would generate a 'mechanical' buying opportunity that you should not pass up if you trade this vehicle. Be sure to check in at the chat room before you jump on it, though, since the implied risk of doing this one by-the-book would be around $16k on four contracts.
I've used the 'extension' of a larger pattern's C-D- leg to produce a chart that will be more usable for trading purposes. It is similar to the one accompanying the E-Mini S&P tout above, and it also offers similarly enticing odds for a 'mechanical' bid placed at the green line (x=418.37). The theoretical stop-loss would be at 388.02, implying the trade should be initiated using a 'camouflage' set-up on a small-degree, intraday chart. There can be no certitude that the stock will reach D=509.40, since the move through p=448.72 was not dramatic. You can count on a ride to at least 479.06, however, no matter where you get long.
TLT is taking its sweet old time getting airborne, and even surmounting the small distance remaining to p=96.42 cannot be assumed. The last upward stab failed to take out any external peaks, and that is an additional factor to consider. My gut feeling is that the October 2023 low at 82.42 was a major one and that it will endure for the foreseeable future. Regardless, we'll need to see a strong push past p=96.42 the first time buyers encounter it in order to infer that the D target at 105.49 is likely to be achieved.
Although GDXJ broke out last week, the chart shown in the inset, for August Comex futures, leaves me skeptical. I would remain at least somewhat so even if the rally were to surpass the 2477.0 peak recorded on May 24. However, I wouldn't hesitate to buy a pullback to the red line (p=2340.60) mechanically. The by-the-book stop-loss would be at 2295.10, so we'd need to craft a less risky set-up to leverage the opportunity. For the moment, though, this vehicle remains on a 'mechanical'-short signal.
September Silver has stopped out no fewer than four previous lows on the daily chart since this consolidation began in late May, so we'll be extra careful about where we get on and off the bullish bandwagon. We can use the reverse pattern shown to get long the next time, but because the futures breached p=30.85 and closed below it on Friday, we may have to wait until the retracement hits d=29.69 before we hop aboard. The turn could conceivably come from p2=30.27, so stay open to the possibility.
Bertie slightly overshot the D target of a corrective pattern on the weekly chart, and so I've retained my focus on a somewhat bearish picture, albeit one that is merely corrective. The implied, minimum downside target is p2=49,246, and this vehicle would trigger a 'mechanical' short if the current uptrend hits the green line (x=65,609). we'll know before then how likely this is, since a decisive upside pentration of 61,460 would be bullish. It would also shift our minimun upside target for the near term to 69,161. Both of those Hidden Pivot resistances can be found on the weekly chart, where (reverse) a=56,519 on May 3.
I've used a conservative projection even though GDXJ broke out last week, scuttling a bearish reverse pattern. It nearly touched the 47.98 rally target on Friday, although there's room to 48.29 if you slide 'A' down a tad. The very shallow retracement that occurred after the top was recorded early in the session is mildly bullish, but the selling would need to continue down to 47.19 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart. It would be a minor signal, but it can nonetheless serve sa a hair-trigger warning of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 6:28 p.m.): Bulls have trashed enough hardy obstacles lately that it's time to shift our focus to a much bigger picture that projects as high as 72.23. Notice that GDXJ ended the week precisely at the most crucial spot on the weekly chart, p=49.02. Let's see what happens before we make an important judgment.
