I've made a finicky adjustment to the point A low that yields a slightly lower rally target at 2269.10. Months of tedium at p do not allow certitude about whether D will be reached, nor does the stall precisely at p2=2167; however, my gut feeling is that 2269.10 will work as a minimum upside target. If April Gold gets no lift from last week's soporific string of lows near 2159.40, the next place you could step in to buy with a tight stop-loss would be at 2116.00. That's the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:26 a.m.): The futures should be presumed bound for the 2306.20 target shown in this chart once they push decisively past the 2269.10 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above.
No change. The 27.34 rally target given here earlier still obtains. The initial upside penetration of p=24.765 was hardly decisive, but that is insufficient reason to believe the target won't be reached. Buyers are going to take their own sweet time getting there, though, and that would likely hold true if the futures swoon to x=23.478, generating a 'mechanical' buying signal. It would likely be good enough for government work, but don't expect to cash out for a partial profit soon after getting long.
For all its wacky histrionics, crude remains one of the most tradeable vehicles tracked on this list. The pattern shown, with an 82.48 rally target we've been using as a lodestar, produced a second 'mechanical' buy at x=77.26 last week that went on to rack up significant gains without much fuss or stress. Paradoxically, most of the trades come from thrusts into 'discomfort' zones that are so predictable that they should be called 'relaxation' zones. I will continue to provide real-time guidance for this vehicle that is commensurate with the interest subscribers show in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 10:24 a.m.): I am raising my target to 83.26, since buyers are not having much difficulty surpassing rally targets of lesser degree. The pattern's point 'B' high is more sausage-y than I would prefer, but I'll use it anyway because the pattern itself looks gnarly enough to evade widespread detection and use. The target will be shortable when reached, but your trading bias should be bullish until then. If you were looking for yet one more negative factor to slow down the psychotic bull market rampage, crude's effortless waft above $80 barrel could be it, since it threatens to raise the price of everything tied to energy prices -- i.e., virtually all goods and services sold on this troubled planet. _______ UPDATE (4:03 p.m.): The rally from the Feb 5 low has gone out of control, killing my enthusiasm for getting short. It looks to be headed for 86.15; however, even on the five-minute chart, there was just one dicey chance to get long today using an rABC trigger. ______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 5:33 p.m.): See my 12:45 post in the chat room for an equivalent target for the May contract, plus actionable guidance.
Although the impulse leg in the conventional pattern shown was not very powerful, it was persistent enough that I'll give the bearish interpretation of this chart the benefit of the doubt. That means that GDXJ is on a 'mechanical'-short signal triggered on first contact with the green line. That implies that GDXJ is more likely to fall to p=33.73 than continue its ascent toward C=39.82. Regardless, I doubt that sellers will be able to push it down to D=27.63. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 5:52 p.m.): Use the 42.10 target of this large reverse pattern as a minimum upside projection for now. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 10:46 a.m.): I've flagged the 38.15 target of this reverse pattern on the weekly chart as a significant impediment and potential rally-stopper. It's worth shorting for a scalp, but my gut feeling is that it will give way, allowing further progress to the 42.10 target noted above.
The 'mechanical' buy triggered on Thursday when TLT fell to the green line (x=93.40) is looking like hell at the moment, with the steep fall over the last two weeks showing no sign of abating. However, 'mechanical' entries are never supposed to feel warm and fuzzy, since they are designed to exploit the vicious shakeouts that can occur when overly eager buyers get too far ahead of themselves. All we can do now is wait and see whether TLT takes a one-level bounce to the red line without exceeding C=92.01 to the downside.
Even though last week's extension of bull-mania exceeded the 5220.00 target shown by only a smidgen, it's still creepy. The 'hidden' resistance should have held, if for no other reason than that the pattern is too gnarly to be common knowledge. Granted, the point 'B' high is pork sausage, as noted here last week. But that's still not a good reason for its target to have been exceeded so easily. The rally did reverse to produce a close beneath the target, so it's still possible we'll see rationality reassert itself in the week ahead with a persuasive plunge. Unfortunately, SPY failed by two points to achieve a corresponding target at 520.54 before the sell-off began, so we took no short position with puts. _______ UPDATE (March 13, 11:03 a.m. EDT): The minor rally pattern shown has already produced two 'mechanical' winners while becoming increasingly gnarly, so expect it to produce a third profitable trade: shorting D=5287.25 when the futures get there. A small reverse pattern should be suitable for this purpose, but be sure to take a small partial profit if it works. You could also buy a pullback to p2=5204.00 'mechanically,' stop 5176.25.
The pattern shown was compelling enough to suggest that MSFT might make a top at the D target, 420.26. But THE top? My guess is not, which would make all of the jacking off for the last month a consolidation. It certainly doesn't look like it's setting up a plunge, although that could change very easily with a downdraft that penetrates three supportive lows recorded since January 31. In any event, I have no trading ideas to begin the week, so we'll have to see what develops.
Although I promoted a 2307 target here last week, I'm going to dial it back a little with the 2276.60 target of a larger pattern. For reasons of clarity alone, it should take precedence over the higher number, and therefore be viewed as a potential rally-stopper. In any case, resistances at both p and p2 were violated so brutally that there should be little doubt about using 2276.60 as a minimum upside projection. The rally was too steep even when it began early last week to catch an easy ride. The same conditions will likely obtain this week, so any attempt to get aboard would need to come from an intraday set-up on the lesser charts.
I characterized last week's price action as 'mildly discouraging' in the chart (see inset), but compared to gold's stellar performance, Silver's dirge was not merely discouraging, but pathetic. The rally stalled almost precisely at p=24.76 of a pattern that projects to 27.34, and I can offer no assurances that the resistance will get pulped next week. Whatever happens, I doubt that gold can go much higher without dragging silver along. Please note that a pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger an appealing mechanical' buy, stop 22.18.
It's hard to be cautious after last week's steep, powerful rally, but we should take heed nonetheless that GDXJ would trigger a 'mechanical' short at x=36.77. I am not suggesting this, since the set-up, with a weak but lengthy impulse leg, is hardly ideal. But we should monitor price action closely after it's hit, since that's why we use charts in the first place -- i.e., to stay objectively on top of the trend no matter what we might think.
