Last week's correction has further to go before buyers could step in without risking much. A pullback to the green line (x=5422) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, although there are no guarantees we'll be gifted with such a bargain price. More interestingly, neither can there be any guarantees that the next big rally will reach the 5881 target shown in the chart. Had the uptrend impaled p=5575 a month ago on the way up, a finishing stroke to 5881 would be more or less asssured. However, price action at p was muffled, and it took fully three weeks before buyers were able to push past it decisively. That is a cautionary sign, even in a bull market that has been as strong and steady as this one.
MSFT is falling after having slightly exceeded the 462.80 target shown. Ordinarily I would regard the overshoot as mildly bullish, but in this case the target was simply front-run by sellers eager to short an ABC pattern so obvious it could be seen from outer space. With all these clowns piling on, the short squeeze that occurred above the target should have been stronger. The implication is that the stock is falling on organic weakness and will need to correct stridently before it can turn around. Hidden Pivot levels aside, my guess is that the pullback will come down into the space defined by the two prior lows at, respectively, 388 an 404.
Bertie is a lock-up to reach the 69,161 target shown, but it will need to close for two consecutive weeks above 71,395 to put an 89,029 'D' target in play. It goes with this pattern, and it is the highest projection I've identified that is tied to Hidden Pivot levels. It is curious that bitcoin rose so sharply in a week that featured heavy selling in the S&Ps and the tech stocks. I can't imagine that the King of Cryptos would be considered a safe-haven asset, but if so, then perhaps the End of Times is nearer than we'd thought.
Three successive, marginally higher tops in the last three months have made this vehicle more than a little tiresome. The futures will need to come down to at least p=2352.00 of this latest, bullish pattern before we can get a confident read on how long the tedium might last before gold blasts off toward 3000. We might be able to determine trend strength accurately as early as Monday or Tuesday by looking at patterns going in either direction on the lesser charts, so stay tuned.
A full correction to the 27.41 'd' target shown would be a back-up-the- truck buying opportunity that could be initiated with a tight stop-loss. We should be alert to the possibility, however, that the retracement will fall somewhat shy of d before reversing. A logical 'fooler' spot for a reversal would be from near 28.11, the midway point between p2 and d. A second possibility would be a turn from around 27.72, midway between the last two prior lows. In any case, I expect sellers to bring the futures down below the 28.90 low from June 28 before a turnaround can occur.
Friday's decisive breach of the 45.95 midpoint support of the reverse pattern shown implies the correction is likely to hit d=42.78 before it ends. GDXJ did run back up to p at the close, but the fact that it still settled below this Hidden Pivot can only be read as a negative. A retracement rally to x=47.53 would generate a textbook mechanical short, so don't pass up the opportunity if it materializes. The 'd' target can be bottom-fished if and when GDXJ gets there, but the obviousness of the pattern, even though it's a reverse, will work against a precise turn.
This chart, with a 5823.00 target, looks more reliable than the one displayed here last week. It projected a 5879 top, but let's see how buyers fare at the lower target before we try to get a read on trend strength. A pullback to the green line (x=5582.75) would generate a 'mechanical' buying opportunity that you should not pass up if you trade this vehicle. Be sure to check in at the chat room before you jump on it, though, since the implied risk of doing this one by-the-book would be around $16k on four contracts.
I've used the 'extension' of a larger pattern's C-D- leg to produce a chart that will be more usable for trading purposes. It is similar to the one accompanying the E-Mini S&P tout above, and it also offers similarly enticing odds for a 'mechanical' bid placed at the green line (x=418.37). The theoretical stop-loss would be at 388.02, implying the trade should be initiated using a 'camouflage' set-up on a small-degree, intraday chart. There can be no certitude that the stock will reach D=509.40, since the move through p=448.72 was not dramatic. You can count on a ride to at least 479.06, however, no matter where you get long.
TLT is taking its sweet old time getting airborne, and even surmounting the small distance remaining to p=96.42 cannot be assumed. The last upward stab failed to take out any external peaks, and that is an additional factor to consider. My gut feeling is that the October 2023 low at 82.42 was a major one and that it will endure for the foreseeable future. Regardless, we'll need to see a strong push past p=96.42 the first time buyers encounter it in order to infer that the D target at 105.49 is likely to be achieved.
Although GDXJ broke out last week, the chart shown in the inset, for August Comex futures, leaves me skeptical. I would remain at least somewhat so even if the rally were to surpass the 2477.0 peak recorded on May 24. However, I wouldn't hesitate to buy a pullback to the red line (p=2340.60) mechanically. The by-the-book stop-loss would be at 2295.10, so we'd need to craft a less risky set-up to leverage the opportunity. For the moment, though, this vehicle remains on a 'mechanical'-short signal.
