Current Touts

Bulls continued to lose ground last week, but the weakness was not quite sufficient to push this vehicle beneath the 82.42 point 'C' low of the bullish pattern we have been using speculatively. If the pattern were to hold sway, which is looking increasingly doubtful, an extended uptrend could take TLT as high as 150.22. That implies a spectacular bull market, one driven by vanishing inflation and expansionary yield curves. This seems so unlikely at this point that we should view any upturn in TLT with caution, if not to say suspicion, Realize in any event that it would not be unusual for a bull market to be born in obscurity and for no apparent reason.

I only belatedly discovered the reason for the hard selloff a week ago from 2448.80. That number lies just 0.70 from the target of the very gnarly pattern shown. I still think the June contract has a better than 50% chance of achieving a somewhat higher target at 2514.60 given here earlier. However, we should be very cautious at the moment, since this corrective pattern on the weekly chart suggests the June contract will fall to at least 2309.50 before it finds traction. Worst case would be 2170.20, and we cannot rule it out, but we'll be looking to bottom-fish at p=2309.50 (slightly adjusted from last week) in any case. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 1:35 a.m.): The clowns/thieves/Masters of the Universe who erroneously believe they are manipulating this vehicle were themselves manipulated into a nearly $40 plunge when June Gold fell Monday night to a so-far low at 2308.70 -- less than $1 from the Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged above. The $19 bounce that has occurred so far would need to hit 2348.00 to move the futures out of the danger zone; otherwise, look for a further drop to at least 2239.90 (see my chart), a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished as aggressively as the one at 2309.50.

The sharp bounce from p=27.71 puts a similar reversal in June Gold in a more bullish light. The latter has bounced without having touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, suggesting that sellers may have unfinished business. However, Silver reached its p support almost exactly, suggesting it has fully corrected the powerful uptrend begun from 22.19 in mid-February. On balance, I favor the more bullish interpretation, which suggests both vehicles are likely to take out their respective recent highs without first exceeding last week's lows.  My rally target remains 30.08, a Hidden Pivot that's equivalent to a 2514.60 target in June Gold.

We're using a 48.55 rally target while acknowledging that this correction could come down to as low as 35.77 first (weekly chart, a=39,82 on 12/22/23).  More weakness would trigger a somewhat risky 'mechanical' buy at 39.51, predicated on a stop-loss at 36.49.  I am not recommending the trade if it ripens this week, however, since the pullback would be too steep to offer goods odds for a durable reversal, even if it winds up delivering a one-level pop. Please note that a further fall to x=34.98, however unlikely and regardless of how soon it occurs, would set up a 'mechanical' buy that we should not pass up.

I still expect bitcoin to make an important top at 80,546. My confidence is based on the ease and decisiveness of the move through p=48,015. Although there was a brief stall there, Bertie not only popped through it on the next bar, it also came close to touching p2 on the bar before finishing just below it. Taken together, these factors suggest that the D target has a high probability of being achieved. Also, because there are no alternatives for the A, B and C coordinates shown - i.e., the pattern is 'locked' -- 80,546 is likely to work precisely as a reversal spot. Meanwhile, a pullback to p=48,015 should be viewed as a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 37,171. There are ways to cut the entry risk by at least 90%, so don't hesitate to seek timely guidance in the chat room if the opportunity should materialize during regular-session hours. _______ UPDATE (May 5): If the latest shakedown to 56,519 was prelude to the move I've been predicting to at least 80,546, Bertie should push decisively past the trendline shown in this chart, and soon. It will come in around 63,684 when the week begins, with a declining slope of about 170 points a day.

The stock is entering its fourth week after stalling pennies from a 430.58 target that I first broached here last January. Isn't that sufficient evidence that THE top is in? asked a subscriber in the chat room. Ordinarily, I'd say yes. But this is no ordinary bull market, and we shouldn't underestimate its ability to trick us so that nearly every bull and bear still left in the game gets crushed when it ends. That is a given, and we've seen Mr. Market flex his muscles enough times over the years to become true believers in his ability to bamboozle the majority, especially at important turning points. Who would have guessed, for instance, that the most spectacular bull run in U.S. history would begin almost to the day in March 2020 when the country locked down against the covid threat? And now, there should be little doubt that the bull market will end with a flash of exuberance and bravado that are commensurate with the despair most investors felt in 2020. There is a palpable sense that we are close to a watershed top, but we shouldn't expect our instincts alone to locate it exactly.

Bulls have gotten dragged lower for the last two weeks, kicking and screaming every inch of the way. However, I doubt they'll avoid the punitive implications of the reverse pattern shown, with a 4777.50 target that lies 7.5% below Friday's settlement price. It might not turn out so badly, though, since the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 5055.50, which has served lately as our minimum downside objective, could conceivably contain the correction.  But if it is decisively exceeded, we shouldn't hesitate to short a rally back up to the green line aggressively.

Mr. Slammy made his appearance late in the day after leaving the futures somewhat shy of the 2514.60 target that we used last week as a bull market lodestar. It will be achieved, rest assured, but not necessarily on our schedule. Friday afternoon's $100 slapdown from the top of a strong rally was so swift and punitive that one might think the solons who regulate the futures markets pass out awards for the most brazen heists by the criminals who control the markets. Their tracks have nonetheless provided a clear technical picture to guide our efforts in trading and positioning bullion. Expect the correction to come down to at least 2309.00, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. We'll want to bottom-fish there, whether to augment positions or open new ones, so stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications to keep apprised.

Precious metals got bludgeoned on Friday after a strong rally spiked this vehicle to 29.90 around 11:15. The downdraft should not have caught any of you by surprise, since we were already using a 1.09 trigger interval (TI) to warn if intraday weakness looked likely to snowball. It did, but some subscribers might have used the alert not merely to exit or reduce long positions, but to go short. This would have occurred at 28.81, with half of the position still to be covered a 27.72, about 23 cents off the closing low. That is also my minimum downside projection at the moment, the p midpoint support of the corrective pattern shown. As always, an easy move through this Hidden Pivot it would portend more slippage to p2=26.61, the secondary Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 3:50 p.m.): The futures are perfectly synched with the forecast, having come down to 27.67 this morning before trampolining to a recovery high of 28.98 so far. If they take out C=29.90 without having corrected any lower than 27.67, that would imply this bull run is bound for the next important Hidden Pivot resistance. It lies at 30.08, only slightly above the recent high at 29.90, so the utmost caution is advised when it gets there.  The target is drawn from the weekly chart, where A=18.71 on 9-30-22.