Although the rally may already have begun to feel the magnetic pull of the old high, that is no assurance a new high will be achieved. It will first have to push past a Hidden Pivot resistance at 6128.25 that has the potential to stop the rally dead. The effect is likely to be precise if it occurs at all, so you won't have to ponder price action for more than an hour or two once the target is hit to figure out what might come next. The target is worth shorting provideddd you have the chops to pare entry risk down to 3.00 points or less per contract.
Talking heads, TV pundits and eggheads seem befuddled about where rates on the Ten-Year Note might be headed, but a chart with correctly drawn Hidden Pivot levels offers only clarity. The trend has been higher since May 1, with a rise from 4.12% to a high 4.40%, and although it seems likely rates will go somewhat higher, expect a downward break, perhaps a sharp one, from within the range 4.42%-4.58% [corrected]. The highs might seem scary for those who owe or need dollars, but a subsequent fall to as low as 3.902% should help quell their fears.
The futures did nothing last week to allay suspicions that the no-longer-exciting move off early April's low is just a garden-variety bear rally. Although it exceeded my 5736.00 target by five points, the fact that one needs a microscope to see this on the weekly chart means we should treat the resistance as intact. If buyers get decisively past it, I will be the first to guarantee 5867.00 as a minimum price objective. But we'll remain disciplined for now, and that means bulls must prove their case every step of the way. I may put out a trade in the chat room this week because this vehicle's minor swings are so easy to read. Stay close to the room if you're interested. The trade will likely happen too quickly for an email blast to be of much value, but if I see an opportunity developing lazily, I'll notify everyone.
MSFT wasted a week with its failure to achieve a modest 'conventional' Hidden Pivot target at 450.24. I didn't make the target viewable on this page, even by paying subscribers, because I didn't want to queer its voodoo magic. However, it still looks like a terrific place to attempt getting short with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger. If you don't know enough about them to fool around, I'll suggest buying a few puts or naked-shorting some near-the-money, soon-to-expire calls when the stock gets within 1.00 of the target. Tie the position to a tight stop-loss, since the trade is likely to work precisely if at all, and be sure to nail down a small partial profit if the opportunity arises. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 5:10 p.m..): The sleazeballs who control this fusion-powered 'wealth-generator' are milking the huge short-squeeze gap from May 1 for all it's worth. MSFT now looks like it will hit 477.45 before DaBoyz run into real resistance. Short there, too, with a stop-loss as tight as 0.20-0.40 cents. For your information, the short I'd recommended above from 450.24 could have produced a quick, juicy gain, since the stock fell to 439.78 on May 12 after topping at 450.59 the same day, just ahead of the regular-session opening.
June Gold looks headed to at least 3730.00, but that's provided it can get past the 3533.90 Hidden Pivot I ballyhooed here for a while. (The target worked well, to put it mildly, getting within 0.6% of the actual so-far top at 3510.) If June Gold were to drop by $200 now, it would not necessarily be reason for concern; for in fact, 3135.90 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2938.00. These numbers come from the monthly composite chart (see thumbnail inset), where A=1618 in November 2022. Best bet for tightly stopped bottom-fishing: 3261.50, the 'd' target of a pattern discernible on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 3:08 p.m. EDT): The savage drubbing gold has received today reversed from such an obvious place that a relapse seems likely. The low for June Gold occurred at 3211.20, a hair above an important low recorded on May 1. Look for the selling to continue to at least 3147.70 before the futures find a decent foothold. (Note: The pattern on which this target is based is poorly formed, so I would not advise trying to bottom-fish there with the usual tight stop-loss.) Alternatively, a pop above 3352.70, however unlikely at the moment, would put bulls solidly back in charge. The selling feels more engineered than organic, and I doubt it threatens the long-term bull market. However, we’ll let the charts decide, since the downtrend would likely have farther to go if bearish ABCD patterns of varying time frames start to exceed their ‘D’ targets routinely
The midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 32.493 has repelled three bear assaults, hinting that the futures want to go higher. Notice that the first time the futures came down to the red line, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=32.986), the trade produced a quick $2400 profit when it plummeted once again to the red line. But this appears to have spent sellers, and that's why the chart is bullish, at least for the near term. Since I've provided a 'best bet' for a tightly stopped bid in June Gold (see tout above), let me do the same for July Silver: 32.480, exactly 40 cents below where it was trading when the clock ran out on Friday's impacted action. ______ UPDATE (May 12, 5:05 p.m.) The nice thing about no one giving a rat's ass about Silver is that when Gold gets crushed as it did today, Silver does necessarily fall in sympathy. It just might, however, so be prepared for a drop to 31.505 (60-min, A= 33.835 on 4/29). You can try bottom-fishing there with a very tight stop-loss if you know what you're doing.
I've flagged two rally targets that lie, respectively, at 72.23 and 111.59. The first is 'guaranteed' to be reached, but I cannot yet certify the higher target as a sure thing. However, GDXJ will be drawn more immediately to the 66.71 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown (see inset). The likelihood of this increased with last week's failure to reach the 'd target of a minor bearish reverse (rABC) pattern. If buyers pop it through p=66.71 easily, this vehicle would be on track for a move up to 75.04, a tad better than the assured objective at 72.23.
The dollar's unaccustomed burst of strength last week actually generated some hubris, along with speculation that the bear market begun in late 2022 might be over. Although it's too early to be confident about this, the possibility warrants our attention. The move so far tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=100.43, the green line. It's a strong bet that the uptrend will continue to p=102.93, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, but we'll be better able to judge its strength and durability once we've seen bulls interact with p. A completed move to d=107.94 wouldn't signal an inevitable end to the dollar's 2.5-year dither, but it would put DXY in good position to break out for a run at 2022's high, 114.78.
Bitcoin’s poke last Thursday above a 102,355 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ has shortened the odds that it will reach the 130,189 target. (Note: Because of a change in my coordinates, these numbers differ slightly from the price points given here earlier.) Moreover, a pullback to x=88,362 (the green line), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 74,419. Let’s wait and see how easily and/or decisively the upthrust exceeds p on first contact. Two consecutive weekly closes above it would all but clinch more upside to at least p2=116,247.
At the risk of being premature, I've used the weekly chart's breach of a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 56.30 as evidence that crude is likely to be trading lower in the weeks and months ahead. This is like trying to call Arizona's election an hour after the polls close, but in any case, sellers' ability to penetrate the support is surely not a sign of robust health. Even now, a rally to x=60.57, the green line, would trigger a mechanical short, stop 64.85. There is no way to estimate how long it will take for this to play out, but in the meantime, we should trade even the rallies with a bearish bias. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:43 a.m.): I now see that the short noted above had already triggered at x=60.57 when I posted the tout. I will track the trade nonetheless, using the suggested 64.85 stop-loss. The worst-case target for this gambit is 47.87, a conventional 'D' target where A=69.93 (4/3) on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 2:59 p.m.): I've been bearish or indifferent toward crude for so long that it has become a habit to predict generally lower prices. That said, a fist-pump through 65.78 would grab my attention, since it would indicate more upside to as high as 76.89. I doubt this will happen, but it's always better to be prepared if it does.
