Although my immediate outlook for gold futures is bullish, Friday's thrust in this vehicle looks like a fake. It would have gotten more boost if it had occurred from just beneath October's 30.46 bottom, and that is where I expect DaBoyz eventually to engineer an authentic turnaround. More immediately, GDXJ would become an appealing 'mechanical' short at either the red or green line. We'll pass up the opportunity but use these benchmarks nevertheless to gauge trend strength. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 6:35 p.m.): The bullish reversal from last Wednesday's low turned decisive with today's pop through an 'external peak at 35.25 recorded more than a month ago. It is still more bullish because the low failed to come down to p2=30.68.
T-Bonds have been on a theoretical buy signal since February 23, when this vehicle popped through the green line (x-93.40). The minimum upside objective is p=94.80, but we'll be more interested to see how buyers interact with that 'hidden' resistance than in trading GDXJ. A quick and decisive push past it would provide a tailwind for a move to as high as 97.58 over the next several weeks. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9): Last Tuesday's gap through p=94.80 all but guarantees the rally will reach a minimum 97.58, the 'D' target of this pattern. An easy move through that Hidden Pivot resistance would imply that the bull cycle begun from 82.42 last October is about to surge anew.
The Dollar Index has been on a buy signal since January, with potential over the next several months to D=108.38. A fall to the green line (x=102.56) would be widely interpreted as bearish, but as the chart makes clear, the move would be corrective and set up an attractive 'mechanical' buying signal. The struggle at the red line (p=104.50) suggests the dollar is in no hurry to reach D, with the possibility that it will not reach it at all, or at least not for a long time.
I'd expected a modest pop to the 24.08 target of a reverse pattern to start the week. Instead, March Silver stumbled as it emerged from the gate, disappointing bulls yet again and providing yet more evidence that the bull market from hell is on its own time. My hunch is that the target will be achieved, but only after the futures have come down to the 22.385 target of the small rABC pattern shown. This calls for bottom-fishing with a 'camouflage' trigger, meaning an abcd pattern of small degree (the 15-minute chart should do).
The futures rallied last week to within a hair of the 5128.50 Hidden Pivot target sent out to you last Sunday. The forecast came with an explicit, high-confidence recommendation to get long if the uptrend pulled back to the green line (x=4984.50). This it did on Tuesday, subsequently producing a profit of as much as $7,200 per contract for anyone who did the trade. I followed up on Friday afternoon with a suggestion to buy SPY 1 March 498 puts. (See my chat room link to the gnarly chart that informed this decision. ) Most subscribers were able to buy them within a penny of their intraday low, 0.37, so we'll have a horse in the race when index futures resume trading on Sunday.
The hourly chart is mildly bearish, albeit with no hint of a major top. That's why I've reproduced the weekly chart, with its compelling target at 430.58, as a reminder of how close the stock is to hitting a resistance that it is unlikely to penetrate, much less brush aside. It will have help putting in a top from a few other lunatic-sector faves, including CMG and NFLX, which have maxed out their respective weekly charts. If MSFT struggles to push above Friday's 412.06 high for a day or two, that would leave it vulnerable to a 50-point fall over the near term. We won't attempt to short it, though, unless it pops to 430, so stay tuned.
Crude is the most agitated trading vehicle I track, but paradoxically the easiest to trade. We can practically count on every tradable price reversal to come from within a tick or two of an in-your-face-obvious prior high or low -- i.e., from smack-dab-in-the-middle of a 'discomfort zone'. The pattern shown has a rally target at 80.30, and we know from experience that the political powers that be and their lackeys will be there to impede the uptrend, lest gasoline prices become problematical for voters nine months ahead of the election. The pattern is also an inch from triggering a textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line. Watch it develop if you are bored. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): The green line (x=76.71) could have been used to make as much as $2,200 per contract with little difficulty, since the futures made a nearly two-level move after dipping slightly below the line on Wednesday morning. A subscriber reported having used UCO to do the trade. Here's the chart. The 80.30 target given above remains valid.
Bulls were in charge when the week ended, having clawed their way back to within an inch of new record highs. Option expirations slowed the ascent, since many traders held calls at the higher strikes that had prevailed before stocks plunged on Tuesday because of unsettling inflation news. Although the futures finished the day down 32 points, it took gumption for bulls to pull the lunatic stocks out of a nosedive that began to gain momentum just minutes into the session. Look for the rally to continue to the 5128.50 target of the pattern shown, and don't pass up the opportunity to bottom-fish 'mechanically' if a correction should bring the March contract down to the green line (x=4984.50).
By now, we've come to expect little of rallies in this vehicle, and so last week's so-far modest bounce off a secondary Hidden Pivot at 30.68 is unlikely to arouse much interest. It could run all the way up to the green line (x=36.77) and still be nothing more than a promising short. Thereafter, or perhaps before then, look for GDXJ to turn south, bound for the 27.63 target. The good news is that the pattern is a pretty one likely to produce a targeted low we can trust.
MSFT has replaced AAPL on the list for the time being, since its chart is more fun to look at. This is notwithstanding the tonnage that has been distributed between 403 and 410 over the last three weeks. It is real and it is heavy, but we know that DaBoyz are capable of rendering it insubstantial with a short-squeeze when conditions are right. My hunch is that they will still have to take the stock down by at least $3-$4 before they can set up the volumeless leap into a sunny-and-mild wafting zone above $410. We are still focused on a target at 430.58 (or possibly 437, which comes from the weekly chart) as the place where this aging bull market will seven out.
