The simple picture shown is similar to the one accompanying the current AAPL tout, and I am confident it won't let us down. That means, for starters, that the correction begun from late July's 4634.50 high will come down to at least p=4436.00 before sellers ease up, perhaps only temporarily. The tradeable bounce I expect from p will provide an excellent opportunity to bottom-fish with a tight stop-loss, but if the bounce sputters out, that would be warning of more slippage to as low as D=4237.75. I broached this number earlier, and it would equate to an 8.5% correction from the top. The pattern also has the potential to deliver an epic 'mechanical' short, but I will pinpoint it for you behind closed doors if and when the opportunity develops.
Expect AAPL's correction to continue down to the red line at 172.24, at least. That's a major Hidden Pivot support of weekly-chart degree. If and when it is reached, the correction from July's all-time high at 198.23 would be about 13%%. Earlier, I predicted that pullbacks in this stock and some others in the institutionally beloved 'lunatic sector' would ultimately reach their respective 'D' targets roughly 27% below. I'm holding to that prediction for now but it could change depending on how bulls and bears fare when they duke it out at p=172.24. And they will. Bottom-fishing there can be attempted using a reverse pattern with a trigger interval of 2.90. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since I may be able to hone this guidance in real time as the stock gets closer. My confidence in the pattern to deliver everything we require is high. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18): A two-day selloff brought AAPL down to within an inch of the 172.24 target billboarded above. The subsequent, strong bounce hit 175.10, triggering the trade I'd recommended at 174.86. If you bought stock or used options to get aboard, please let me know so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position. I don't expect the rally to get very far, so tight risk management could be crucial to booking a profit. _______ UPDATE (Aug 22, 5:56 p.m.): AAPL swam against the tide today, but I doubt the stock can keep it up for long. That's why I suggested covering at least half of any long positions held from 174.86. One subscriber reported booking a $2,600 profit on exiting his entire position, and so I will end my guidance here unless there are additional reports. A run-up to x=185.24 would tempt us with a juicy 'mechanical'
No change in my earlier forecast that October Gold would fall at least to D=1908.10 of the pattern shown. This ABCD is too obvious to yield a tradeable bounce precisely from the 'hidden' support, so we may need to let the rubes get stopped out once or twice before we attempt to bottom-fish there ourselves. Obviousness aside, the pattern is pretty 'textbook', and so a significant bounce would appear to be all but certain. A turbocharged one from no lower than 1921.00 or so would provide a technical rationale for getting 'mechanically' short at x=1983.40. However, somewhat more likely in my estimation is eventual slippage below 1908, presaging a test of spring's lows near 1865. ______ UPDATE (Aug 15, 5:35 p.m.): Reversing a relentless plunge, gold bounced sharply from less than a point of the 1908.10 target today. However, because the 1910.10 target has been more than two months in coming, we might have expected more from the rebound. Let's give it another day or two to develop, but trading should be with a moderately bullish bias in the meantime. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 7:25 p.m.): The next stop on the way to hell is 1895.60, a Hidden Pivot support sufficiently obscure that we can safely assume we own it. Bottom-fish there with a tightly stopped reverse-pattern trigger, but be aware that if the futures relapse and the support gives way easily, the October contract will be headed down to at least 1878.00. I am suggesting a reverse-pattern entry because gold tends to be most heavily manipulated in the early going. (Note: I will switch to the December contract when I update on Sunday. The equivalent downside targets lie, respectively, at 1915.20 and 1897.90.)
The chart projects a correction to as low as 21.39 of the big bull move begun in March from 20.42. Since the initial downside penetration of p=23.43 earlier this month was not especially dramatic, however, we should be alert to a possibly significant upturn without D having been reached. There is a chance it began Friday, since the bounce from an intraday low began at a voodoo number that should have jumped out at advanced Pivoteers. If the futures relapse as the week begins, look here and in the chat room for an update that could be tradeable.
With gasoline prices in the East pushing well above $4, consumers could use some help from the 84.66 'midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance' shown in the chart. It held against Friday's surge, but it looks like a slender reed for beleaguered consumers to lean on. A decisive push past it would imply more upside to p2=94.88, at which point we may become nostalgic for $4 gas. A bright spot for investors is that because the stock market has come completely decoupled from reality, the crushing economic burden of higher energy prices has barely registered on Wall Street's dim, fevered brain. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18): The bounce into Friday's close looked menacing from the perspective of bears hoping the top a week ago at the 84.66 midpoint Hidden would endure. A decisive push past it would put the 94.88 'secondary' pivot mentioned above in play, and possibly even D=105.10. Even a run-up to the lower target would be ruinous for motorists already challenged by soaring gas prices.
I've featured a scary forecast for this vehicle in the latest Morning Line commentary, but the requisite plunge is not yet a done deal. That's because sellers have hesitated to crush the midpoint support of the pattern shown. It was touched for the first time twice in the last week or so and has begun to creak under the weight of selling, but we shouldn't dismiss the possibility of a rally-out-of-nowhere, since it is always darkest before the dawn. However, the bounce would have to exceed July 31's 'external' peak at 103.33 to generate a promising impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 11:20 p.m.): Check out my post just now in the chat room. It contains potentially actionable advice using call options. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 7:44 p.m.): Stay close to the chat room if you care about this symbol, since that's where the buzz is. It looks like it's about to fall to at least 88.05, the secondary Hidden Pivot shown in the latest tout.
Actionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)> This is a test of Rick's Quick notification system > > Thanks > > Rick's Picks > >>> >> >
Actionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)This is a test >> >
Although we were using a somewhat higher target at 103.50 for this dead-cat bounce, the fact that it reached the green line at 102.80, triggering a 'mechanical' short, warrants shifting our focus once again to the downside D Hidden Pivot at 93.55. That would amount to a 21% correction off the 114.78 summit recorded in September 2022. Keep in mind that although the decline has already taken a brutal toll on the biggest, deepest, most important 'commodity' in the world, it is still merely corrective of the long-term bull market begun in March 2008 from 70.70, and of a shorter cycle begun from a 89.21 high in January 2021 that projects to 119.37. Here's a chart stretching back to 2004 that shows this. Pivoteers will notice that DXY would trigger a 'mechanical' buy that could not miss if and when it comes down to the green line at 96.03. The next big rally cycle would be congruent with the debt deflation that I have long predicted. It will surprise everyone because it is so counterintuitive when seen in relationship to the unprecedented fiscal and monetary blowout of the last five years. However, it will nonetheless wring the life from all who owe, creating a wave of private, public and corporate bankruptcies worse than the cascade of bank failures during the Great Depression.
It's refreshing to see AAPL get the crap kicked out of it for a rare change. And there's more to come! But don't think that the chimps that this buy-and-hold no-brainer has made look like geniuses are not salivating over the prospect of accumulating more shares at 'bargain' prices, and of running the stock back up again without expending much effort or capital. Gap openings induced by short-covering will make that possible, just as they have since early in 2020. We can attempt to bottom-fish, but not before the correction comes down to at least p=172.24, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the reverse pattern shown in the chart. This implies the broad averages have further to fall as well. If the stock ultimately plummet to d=146.25, that would represent a 26% correction off the all-time high -- a mini-bear market within a longer-term bull that projects as high as 253.96. _______ UPDATE (Aug 7, 9:54 p.m.): Are DaBoyz awesome, or what?? They don't call them the Masters of the Universe for nothing. It seems They have finally figured out how to harness AAPL's lunatic energy on the way up while cutting it loose when it falls. If you'd told me that a $3 trillion stock was about to plummet by 10% in just a few days as the broad averages sad idly by, twiddling their so-to-speak thumbs, I'd have said "No way!" And yet...
