As usual, Gold is taking its sweet old time going anywhere, never mind to the 2027 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. We'll need to see how buyers handle this resistance before we can judge the likelihood of a rally to the 2154.20 target. The August contract is on a theoretical 'buy' signal at the moment, but the only way to use it with risk tightly controlled would be to set up a 'camo' trigger on an intraday chart. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since I may be able to signal a timely opportunity tied to this vehicle's wonted morning reversals. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 8:43 a.m.): Gold has slipped back into its accustomed 'garbage mode', in a bull market more reminiscent of The Flying Dutchman in search of land than its 1970s heyday. Here's a chart that shows an 1895.10 downside target for the October contract.
I rarely display a chart with two patterns, but in this case, both have been working well enough to provide a handhold for trades in either direction. The 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the smaller, downtrending pattern caught a tradeable low on Friday almost precisely and would signal a 'mechanical' short if the futures were to touch x=24.85 (stop 25.48), as the new week begins. There's $12,600 0f theoretical entry risk on four contracts, so this one is intended only for subscribers who have mastered 'camo' set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:05 a.m.): Only one subscriber mentioned having done the trade, so I did not establish a tracking position. The short from the green line is still 'live', however, and has produced a profit so far of $3150 for each contract covered at the red line. Typically, I advise covering half of any position there, or of implementing an 'impulsive' stop-loss if just a single contract is held.
GDXJ is close to triggering its second 'mechanical' buy signal since mid-June. We usually jump on first signals only, but in this case bears look so enfeebled that it may be possible to make money on some call options. Bid the 4 August 37 calls gently, paying no more than 0.32 for them. (They closed on Friday ay 0.49.) This is a day order to be placed ahead of Monday's opening. I will adjust the price intraday if it appears that we can do even better, so stay tuned to the chat room and have your 'Notifications' switch on if you are keen to play. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 7:19 a.m.): The bid failed to trigger when the Aug 37 calls opened at 0.53 and instantly traded up to 0.72. Sellers at 0.53 may have felt like they'd been had because they were. Opening-rotation trades in option markets are not for amateurs.
The steep rally begun in January has barely paused for breath, so relentless that it could properly be described as a manifestation of mass psychosis. And here's the thing: This the largest-cap stock in the world, with a $3 trillion valuation, so every ratcheting, short-squeeze rally adds tens of billions in 'wealth' to the world's macro ledger. It can't end well, since, in a recession, Apple's pricey iPhone will be near the top of the list of things that consumers stop buying. In the meantime, we can only watch in amazement as the stock continues to ascend toward the 253.96 target pictured in this chart. Please note that with just a little more upside above the 198.23 high, the stock would become a screaming 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=156.52. AAPL is egregiously overdue for a very nasty selloff, but we'll need to see corrective 'd' targets on the lesser charts start to be exceeded routinely before we infer the retracement is under way. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:25 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since today's by-now-obligatory gap-up opening failed to surpass last week's high. The subsequent dive, trapping bulls and bear alike, created an impulse leg, but let's see if bears can improve on it into week's end, turning it into the start of something big.
August Gold spent the week consolidating just above the green line, where a theoretical buy signal triggered the previous week. We should assume minimum upside to p=2028.30, a not very ambitious target but one that would nonetheless fix $2000 in traders minds as support. That's assuming the futures can close for at least two consecutive weeks above the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p). They should be trade with a bullish bias in the meantime, using 'reverse-pattern' triggers drawn from the lesser charts. Stay tuned to the chat room and email 'Notifications' if you trade this vehicle.
A short from the red line (p=25.45) could have been worth as much as $14,000 by week's end on four contracts, although no one mentioned having done the trade, so I didn't track it. Now, draw a reverse pattern on the weekly chart using A=24.83 on 6/9, and you'll see why p=24.228 can be used as a minimum downside projection for the near term (and 22.98 as a worst case). It can also be used to bottom-fish with a 'reverse-pattern' trigger. If silver surprises and closes above last week's 24.47 high, that would put the 28.56 target in play. _____ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:20 p.m.): Silver did in fact plunge today to within an inch of the 24.22 midpoint Hidden Pivot where I'd suggested bottom-fishing (see above), but I won't provide tracking guidance unless I hear from at least two subscribers who traded on my guidance.
The rally begun a month ago finally achieved the red line (p=38.90), which was about as far as I thought it might go after signaling a 'mechanical' buy at x=35.38. My hunch is that GDXJ will pussyfoot between the red and green lines for longer than we have patience. We'll give it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless, using p2=42.23 as a minimum upside target. Prompt me in the chat room and I may be able to provide timely trading guidance.
I've treated this T-Bond proxy's interminable dirge this year as a consolidation, but the chart shows the flip side of this assumption, with a minimum downside target at p=95.26. That's appropriate, given the heaviness of this vehicle since April. The pivot is clear and compelling, so a decisive breach would be warning of much lower lows down the road. Regardless, we should plan on bottom-fishing aggressively if p is achieved. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 10:40 a.m.): TLT's latest plunge has exceeded p=95.26 by 0.51 points so far, which is bearish, but we can still try bottom-fishing if we keep our expectations low. That would imply initiating a long position on any rally of 1.03 points from the current low, 94.75, but seeking only a one-level gain. Entry based on the 94.75 low would be at 95.78, but you should lower that number if the 94.75 low is exceeded to the downside. Plan on exiting your position exactly 1.03 points above the entry price. You can substitute options, buying them when the stock triggers an entry, but let me know in the chat room of your plans, since beating time decay will be extremely tricky here. _____ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:42): The biggest rally of the day fell 32 cents shy of the $1.03 reversal needed to trigger the bull trade detailed above. With TLT freefalling, we can still use the same criterion for getting long against the trend: a $1.03 rally. That is what it will take to signal a possible reversal, and even then, there will be no guarantees how high.
Crude's tiresome game of tiddlywinks tripped a 'mechanical' short two weeks ago when the September contract rallied to the green line (x=76.86). A portion of any multi-contract position would have been covered ahead of last week's rally, although there was no indication of any interest in the trade in the chat room. Trade possibilities aside, the implicit assumption of my analysis is that this is yet another rally that lacks the gumption to push above the bearish pattern's 'C' high at 83.59.
The Dollar Index has bounced nearly precisely from p=99.72, just as we'd been expecting since March. I wouldn't get too excited, however, since nothing has changed in the big picture to reverse the greenback's long slide. The outlook would brighten somewhat if DXY vaults a minor midpoint resistance at 101.20 where it stalled last week. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot, on the 60-minute chart, of A=100.02 on 7/20. The rally target thereafter would be 101.67.
