Current Touts

We'll give this correction plenty of room, since the steepness of Apple's melt-up since March has been the equivalent of running three sub-two-hour marathons. The stock is badly in need of rest, so let's be prepared to exploit it. A moderate decline of arobull trapund $8 would create the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart since last December.  The low of that move gave way to the current, massive rally, and we might expect the same outcome when this pullback ends, since bulls demolished a key resistance at 189.07 before it began. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 11:53 p.m.): AAPL went sharply the 'wrong' way, propelled by yet another deftly engineered gap-up leap on the opening. Assuming the stock can get past a midpoint resistance at 194.24, it is headed for a potentially shortable peak at exactly 196.07 (5-min, A=189.85 on 7/14).  If this happens before noon Wednesday, you can speculate with puts under 0.65 that expire this Friday. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:54 p.m.): Using the same pattern, you can also get long 'mechanically' by buying cheap call options (0.60 or less in this context) expiring this Friday or next if AAPL pulls back to the green line (x=193.32). _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:32 p.m.): Subscribers jumped on the mechanical trade suggested above just before AAPL took a psychotic leap from the green line (x=193.32). This caused soon-to-expire 195 calls that I'd suggested buying for 0.40 to leap to an intraday high of 3.85, a nearly 1000% gain, in just 12 minutes. One subscriber who bought 50 of the calls for 0.51 reported selling them minutes later for 3.40, realizing a nearly instantaneous profit of $14,450. I didn't notice this until later, but the high of AAPL's nutty, pointless spike could have been predicted within four cents using

Friday's saggy performance promised to burden the night shift when trading resumes Sunday night. If selling should snowball early in the week, sending the futures plummeting 100 points to the green line (x=4437), treat it is an excellent opportunity to bottom-fish with a 'mechanical' bid. Entry risk on four contracts would be nearly $14,000, so the trade should be attempted only with a 'reverse-pattern' trigger that cuts the theoretical risk down to $800 or less. It may be possible to narrow down the details, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely guidance. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 12:03 a.m.):  No respite for bears! Use this bullish pattern, with a 4643.75 target, to get a precise handle on this vehicle, get long 'mechanically or short at D. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:42 p.m.): Use a 'reverse pattern' trigger and a 1.50-point interval to bottom-fish the 4579 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown here. The trade is recommended for Wednesday-tutorial regulars. ______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:10 a.m.): The trade was worth as much as $2700 to anyone who followed my instructions. The futures subsequently relapsed, but we had already neutralized their ability to give us anxiety, never mind pain.

What the heck was that all about? I doubt that our 98.44 downside target was front-run, but an otherwise moribund TLT did in fact trampoline from a 98.85 low that missed the forecast by more than a mere whisker. Now, if the manic bounce reaches the green line (x=102.57), that would test our appetite for 'mechanical' signals, since this one would imply a shorting opportunity with high odds of success. We'll consider buying close-in put options if and when that happens, but for now stay chill. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:45 p.m.): I have no appetite for intercepting this freakish rally in T-Bonds, but I'll be curious to see whether the bearish pattern's point 'C' high at 103.95 holds. The mechanical short is not exactly 'textbook', since the grinding B-C leg sapped the energy from bears after they created a strong impulse leg in the last two weeks of May.

GDXJ has done much to earn our distrust since collapsing from a high in April that fell less than $2 shy of a 45.56 target that had looked like a lock-up. It is currently on a 'mechanical' buy signal triggered on June 21, when the downtrend plowed through the green line (x=35.59). I broke with my discipline, passing up the trade, but I won't make that mistake again if the little s.o.b. gives us a low-risk entry opportunity. I still doubt the 45.56 target will be reached any time soon, but that shouldn't scare us away.

Silver will not be able to avoid telling us what is on its tiny, fevered brain when it connects soon with the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 25.45.  If buyers pulverize it, that would shorten the odds of a further move to as high as 28.56, that pattern's D target. There will likely be good opportunities to trade with and against the trend on the way up, so if you trade this vehicle or an ETF equivalent, stay closely tuned to my tout updates and the chat room. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:55 p.m.): A reverse-pattern short from the red line could have produced a quick profit of as much as $1100 per contract (60-min, a=25.30 at 6:00 a.m.). The fact that the futures ended the day above our 'c' plant says they are going higher. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:15 a.m.): Thursday's fright-wig selloff may be the start of the real thing, since it generated a persuasive impulse leg on the hourly chart.

Although I am watching August Silver closely for signs of a bullish breakout, August Gold's price action calls unambiguously for a 'mechanical' short using the green line. I've suggested paper-trading this one, but I will be tracking it closely nonetheless in order to effect a 'camouflage' short that would limit entry risk to a practical minimum. As of now, that implies using an $8.50 trigger interval off any rally that hits 1969.40 or higher. ________UPDATE (Jul 18, 6:23 p.m.): The paper short would trigger on a drop to 1979.50, but I am no longer recommending it, even if your camo 'chops' are up to snuff. Bulls should want to see the trade stopped out, since the 'textbook' features of the 'mechanical' set-up made it a pretty good bet. If the short doesn't work, it would add to the evidence that bulls are finally in command again. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 1:45 p.m.): Our paper short is profitable, and that is not a happy sign for gold. We'll keep a close eye on gold, since the picture would darken further if minor abcd patterns start to exceed their d targets, or even p midpoints. _________ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:19 a.m.): Thursday's impulsive selloff points toward 1957.70 (60-min, A=1985,90 on 7-20 at 7:20 a.m.). Now let's see if sellers have grown a pair.

The unorthodox reverse-pattern shown has worked so well, generating three profitable 'mechanical' buy signals at the green line, that we should confidently expect it to produce yet another winner when it trips a 'mechanical' short at D=79.68. The trade will require some adroit calculations in real time, however, since the most efficient trigger interval that I can come up with at the moment is 78 cents, implying entry risk of at least $780 per contract.

Permabears should curb their hopes, since AAPL's upward stab through p=189.07, although still tentative, was unambiguously bullish. It is also bullish that the stock has closed for two consecutive weeks above this crucial resistance.  The extent of any correction remains to be seen, but a particularly brutal selloff down to the green line (x=156.62) would create a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity. Assuming the stock doesn't leap from the starting gate on Monday and run away this week, my gut feeling is that it could spend much of the summer pussyfooting near the red line (p=189.07). We can focus on short-term option strategies in the meantime, since even minor, meaningless swings hold opportunity if we get the timing of them precisely right. We still hold a few 14 July 180 puts with a cost basis of around 0.50.  They are a distant longshot at this point, but you should nonetheless be offering half of them for 1.00, g-t-c.

The downside 'D' target at 98.44 (see inset) is so compelling that a tradeable bounce from somewhere very near there is all but certain. Will it be sustainable? Probably not, since there is no indication that Fed policy is about to change significantly. However, we'll monitor the presumably corrective rally closely, since the creation of an impulse leg, even on a chart of lesser degree, could portend a potentially important tone change. To play the bounce, use call options expiring no later than July 22, pegged to the 101 or 102 strike. If I'm in the chat room at the time, I may be able to provide more-detailed guidance.